Evaluation of load values using the Gumbel model

• Autorzy: Woliński S. , Pytlowany T.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The paper deals with application of the Gumbel model to evaluation of the environmental loads. According to recommendations of Eurocodes, the conventional method of determining return period and characteristic values of loads utilizes the theory of extremes and implicitly assumes that the cumulative distribution function of the annual or other basic period extremes is the Gumbel distribution. However, the extreme value theory shows that the distribution of extremes asymptotically approaches the Gumbel distribution when the number of independent observations in each observation period from which the maximum is abstracted increases to infinity. Results of calculations based on simulation show that in practice the rate of convergence is very slow and significantly depends on the type of parent results distribution, values of coefficient of variation, and number of observation periods. In this connection, a straightforward purely empirical method based on fitting a curve to the observed extremes is suggested.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

snow load; extreme load; Gumbel model; Monte Carlo simulation; return period

PL

obciążenie śniegiem; obciążenie ekstremalne; model Gumbela; metoda Monte Carlo; okres powrotu

• Wydawca: Komitet Inżynierii Lądowej i Wodnej PAN ; Politechnika Warszawska, Wydział Inżynierii Lądowej
• Czasopismo: Archives of Civil Engineering
• Rocznik: 2012
• Tom: Vol. 58, nr 2
• Strony: 199--208
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 11 poz., il.

Twórcy

autor

Woliński S.

autor

Pytlowany T.

• Department of Building Structures, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rzeszów University of Technology

Bibliografia

• 1. PN-EN 1990 Eurocode: Basis of structural design, PKN, Warsaw 2004.
• 2. ISO 2394 – 1998 (E). General principles on reliability for structures.
• 3. PN-EN 1991 Eurocode 1: Actions on structures, PKN, Warsaw 2005.
• 4. E.J. Gumbel, Statistics of extremes. Columbia Univ. Press, New York, 1958.
• 5. M. Fisz, Probability and PWN, Warsaw, edition II, 1958.
• 6. J.R. Benjamin, C.A. Cornell, Probability, Statistics and Decision for Civil Engineers, WNT, Warsaw 1977.
• 7. B. Ellingwood, R. Redfield, Ground snow loads for structural design. Journal of Structural Engineering, ASCE, 109, 4, 1983, 950-964.
• 8. PN-EN 1991-1-3 Eurocode 1: Actions on structures. Part 1-3: General actions– Snow loads, PKN, Warsaw 2005.
• 9. B. Mrozek, Z. Mrozek, Matlab and Simulink. Helion, Gliwice 2004.
• 10. J. Murzewski, Reliabibility of structures, Arkady, Warsaw, 1989.
• 11. IMiGW Statistic yearbooks of precipitation 1950-2000.