Statistical analysis on yearly seismic moment release data to demarcate the source zone for an impending earthquake in the Himalaya

• Autorzy: Mukhopadhyay B. , Acharyya A. , Dasgupta S.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Tectonism in the Himalayan fold-thrust belt had generated great earthquakes in the past and will spawn more in the future. Sequential cumulative moment release data of macroearthquakes (Mb ≥ 4.5) over the years 1964–2006 in four zones of the Himalaya was analysed by nonparametric RUD method. The Z values of RUD analysis had neither rejected nor supported the null hypothesis of randomness. However, the Hurst analysis and plot, a statistical procedure to identify clustering of low and high values in a time series, brought out a pattern for earthquake prognostication. The pattern was a negative sloping segment representing a sluggish moment release over years, followed by a positive sloping segment indicating a sudden high moment release with occurrence of medium/large size earthquake(s). In recent past, such a negative sloping has been found in Zones B (1992–2006) and D (1998–2006), indicating an impending moderate/mega earthquake event in near future.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Himalaya; seismic moment; time series; Hurst plot

• Wydawca: Instytut Geofizyki PAN ; Springer
• Czasopismo: Acta Geophysica
• Rocznik: 2009
• Tom: Vol. 57, no. 2
• Strony: 387--399
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 28 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Mukhopadhyay B.

autor

Acharyya A.

autor

Dasgupta S.

• Central Headquarters, Geological Survey of India, Kolkata, India,

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