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Since several destructive floods have occurred in Germany in the last decades, it is of considerable interest and relevance (e.g., when undertaking flood defense design) to take a closer look at the climatic factors driving the changes in flood hazard in Germany. Even if there also exist non-climatic factors controlling the flood hazard, the present paper demonstrates that climate change is one main driver responsible for the increasing number of floods. Increasing trends in temperature have been found to be ubiquitous in Germany, with impact on air humidity and changes in (intense) precipitation. Growing trends in flood pronecirculation pattern and heavy precipitation are significant in many regions of Germany over a multi-decade interval and this can be translated into the rise of flood hazard and flood risk.
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Czasopismo
Rocznik
Tom
Strony
463--477
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 19 poz.
Twórcy
autor
autor
autor
autor
autor
autor
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany, hattermann@pik-potsdam.de
Bibliografia
- Bárdossy, A., and H.J. Caspary (1990), Detection of climate change in Europe by analyzing European atmospheric circulation patterns from 1881 to 1989, Theor. Appl. Climatol. 42, 3, 155-167, DOI: 10.1007/BF00866871.
- Becker, A., and U. Grünewald (2003), Flood risk in Central Europe, Science 300, 5622, 1099, DOI: 10.1126/science.1083624.
- Bronstert, A. (ed.) (1996), Hochwasser in Deutschland unter Aspekten global er Veränderungen. Bericht über das DFG-Rundgespräch am 9. Oktober 1995 in Potsdam, PIK Report No. 17, 59 pp. (in German).
- Caspary, H.-J. (2000), Increased risk of river flooding in southwest Germany caused by changes of the atmospheric circulation across Europe. In: A. Bronstert, C. Bismuth, and L. Menzel (eds.), Proc. Eur. Conf. on Advances in Flood Research, PIK Report No. 65, Vol. 1, 212-223.
- Gerstengarbe, F.-W., and P.C. Werner (2005), Katalog der Großwetterlagen Europas (1881-2004) nach Paul Hess und Helmut Brezowsky, 6th ed., PIK Report No. 100, Potsdam Institute for Climate Change Impact Research, 148 pp. (in German).
- Hattermann, F.F., Z.W. Kundzewicz, S. Huang, T. Vetter, W. Kron, O. Burghoff, B. Merz, A. Bronstert, V. Krysanova, F.-W. Gerstengarbe, P. Werner, and Y. Hauf (2012), Flood risk from a holistic perspective – observed changes in Germany. In: Z.W. Kundzewicz (ed.), Changes in Flood Risk in Europe, CRC Press, Wallingford, 212-237, DOI: 10.1201/b12348-14.
- Huang, S., V. Krysanova, H. Österle, and F.F. Hattermann (2010), Simulation of spatiotemporal dynamics of water fluxes in Germany under climate change, Hydrol. Process. 24, 23, 3289-3306, DOI: 10.1002/hyp.7753.
- Kundzewicz, Z.W., and S. Huang (2010), Seasonal temperature extremes in Potsdam, Acta Geophys. 58, 6, 1115-1133, DOI: 10.2478/s11600-010-0026-5.
- Kundzewicz, Z.W., and A.J. Robson (2004), Change detection in hydrological records – a review of the methodology, Hydrol. Sci. J. 49, 1, 7-19, DOI: 10.1623/hysj.49.1.7.53993.
- Kundzewicz, Z.W., and H.-J. Schellnhuber (2004), Floods in the IPCC TAR perspective, Nat. Hazards 31, 1, 111-128, DOI: 10.1023/B:NHAZ.0000020257.09228.7b.
- Kundzewicz, Z.W., U. Ulbrich, T. Brücher, D. Graczyk, A. Krüger, G.C. Leckebusch, L. Menzel, I. Pińskwar, M. Radziejewski, and M. Szwed (2005), Summer floods in Central Europe – climate change track? Nat. Hazards 36, 1/2, 165-189, DOI: 10.1007/s11069-004-4547-6.
- Kundzewicz, Z.W., F.-W. Gerstengarbe, H. Österle, P.C. Werner, and W. Fricke (2009), Recent anomalies of mean temperature of 12 consecutive months – Germany, Europe, Northern Hemisphere, Theor. Appl. Climatol. 95, 3-4, 417-422, DOI: 10.1007/s00704-008-0013-9.
- Merz, B. (2006), Flood Risks: Limitations and Potentials of Risk Assessment, Scheizerbart, Stuttgart, 334 pp. (in German).
- Petrow, T., J. Zimmer, and B. Merz (2009), Changes in the flood hazard in Germany through changing frequency and persistence of circulation patterns, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 9, 4, 1409-1423, DOI: 10.5194/nhess-9-1409-2009.
- Pinter, N., R.R. van der Ploeg, P. Schweigert, and G. Hoefer (2006), Flood magnification on the River Rhine, Hydrol. Process. 20, 1, 147-164, DOI: 10.1002/hyp.5908.
- Rudolf, B., and J. Rapp (2003), The century flood of the River Elbe in August 2002: Synoptic weather development and climatological aspects, Quarterly Report of the German NWP-System of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, No. 2, Part 1, Offenbach, Germany, 8-23.
- van der Ploeg, R.R., G. Machulla, D. Hermsmeyer, J. Ilsemann, M. Gieska, and J. Bachmann (2002), Changes in land use and the growing number of flash floods in Germany. In: J. Steenvoorden, F. Claessen, and J. Willems (eds.), Agricultural Effects on Ground and Surface Waters: Research at the Edge of Science and Society, IAHS Publ. No. 273, 317-321.
- Werner, P.C., and F.-W. Gerstengarbe (2010), Katalog der Großwetterlagen Europas (1881-2009) nach Paul Hess und Helmut Brezowsky, 7th ed., PIK Report No. 119, Potsdam Institute for Climate Change Impact Research, 140 pp. (in German).
- Yue, S., P. Pilon, B. Phinney, and G. Cavadias (2002), The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series, Hydrol. Process. 16, 9, 1807-1829, DOI: 10.1002/hyp.1095.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
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