Tytuł artykułu
Autorzy
Wybrane pełne teksty z tego czasopisma
Identyfikatory
Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
Abstrakty
In order to estimate the recurrence intervals for large earthquakes that occurred in the Marmara region, this region, limited with the coordi- nates of 39°-42° N, 25°-32° E, has been separated into seven seismogenic sources on the basis of certain seismological criteria, and regional time- and magnitude-predictable model has been applied for these sources. Considering the interevent time between successive mainshocks, the following two predictive relations were computed: log Tt = 0.26 Mmin+0.06 Mp – 0.56 log M0 + 13.79 and Mf = 0.63 Mmin – 0.07 Mp + 0.43 log M0 – 7.56. Multiple correlation coefficient and standard deviation have been computed as 0.53 and 0.35 for the first relation and 0.66 and 0.39 for the second relation, respectively. On the basis of these relations and using the occurrence time and magnitude of the last mainshocks in each seismogenic source, the probabilities of occurrence P(Δt) of the next mainshocks during the next five decades and the magnitude of the expected mainshocks were determined.
Wydawca
Czasopismo
Rocznik
Tom
Strony
338--356
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 51 poz.
Twórcy
autor
- Karadeniz Technical University, Engineering Faculty, Department of Geophysics, Trabzon, Turkey, sayil@ktu.edu.tr
Bibliografia
- Alsan, E., L. Tezuçan, and M. Båth (1975), An earthquake catalogue for Turkey for the interval 1913-1970, Report No. 7-75, Kandilli Observatory, Istanbul and Uppsala University, Sweden.
- Ambraseys, N.N. (2001), Reassessment of earthquakes, 1900-1999, in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, Geophys. J. Int. 145, 2, 471-485, DOI: 10.1046/j.0956-540x.2001.01396.x.
- Ambraseys, N.N., and C.F. Finkel (1995), The Seismicity of Turkey and Adjacent Areas, A Historical Review, 1500-1800, Eren Press, Istanbul, 240 pp.
- Ambraseys, N.N., and J.A. Jackson (1981), Earthquake hazard and vulnerability in the northeastern Mediterranean: The Corinth earthquake sequence of February-March 1981, Disaster 5, 4, 355-368, DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-7717.1981.tb01108.x.
- Ambraseys, N.N., and J.A. Jackson (2000), Seismicity of the Sea of Marmara (Turkey) since 1500, Geophys. J. Int. 141, 3, F1-F6, DOI: 10.1046/j.1365-246x.2000.00137.x.
- Ayhan, E., E. Alsan, N. Sancaklı, and S.B. Uçer (1987), An earthquake catalogue of Turkey and surrounding area (1881-1980), Bogazici University, Istanbul.
- Barka, A.A., and K. Kadinsky-Cade (1988), Strike-slip fault geometry in Turkey and its influence on earthquake activity, Tectonics 7, 3, 663-684, DOI: 10.1029/TC007i003p00663.
- Corral, A. (2004), Long-term clustering, scaling, and universality in the temporal occurrence of earthquakes, Phys. Rev. Lett. 92, 10, 108501, DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.92.108501.
- Dewey, J.W. (1976), Seismicity of Northern Anatolia, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 66, 3, 843-868.
- Ekström, G., and A.M. Dziewonski (1988), Evidence of bias in estimations of earthquake size, Nature 332, 319-323, DOI: 10.1038/332319a0.
- Ergin, K., U. Guclu, and Z. Uz (1967), An earthquake catalogue of Turkey and surrounding area (from A.D. 11 to close of 1964), Istanbul Tech. Univ., Mining Faculty, Istanbul.
- Gardner, J.K., and L. Knopoff (1974), Is the sequence of earthquakes in Southern California, with aftershocks removed, Poissonian? Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 64, 5, 1363-1367.
- Gundogdu, O., and Y. Altinok (1986), An earthquake data set of Turkey and surrounding area 1900-1986, Istanbul Univ., Engineering Faculty, Dept. Of Geophys., Istanbul.
- Gutenberg, B., and C.F. Richter (1944), Frequency of Earthquakes in California, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 34, 4, 185-188.
- Helmstetter, A., and D. Sornette (2004), Comment on “Power-law time distribution of large earthquakes”, Phys. Rev. Lett. 92, 12, 129801, DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.92.129801.
- Kagan, Y.Y. (1997), Statistical aspects of Parkfield earthquake sequence and Parkfield prediction experiment, Tectonophysics 270, 3-4, 207-219, DOI: 10.1016/S0040-1951(96)00210-7.
- Kanamori, H. (1977), The energy release in great earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res. 82, 20, 2981-2987, DOI: 10.1029/JB082i020p02981.
- Karakaisis, G.F. (2000), Effects of zonation on the results of the application of the regional time predictable seismicity model in Greece and Japan, Earth Planet. Space, 52, 221-228.
- Karnik, V. (1968), Seismicity of the European Area, D. Reidel Publ. Co., Dordrecht.
- Kenar, Ö., İ. Osmansahin, and M.F. Özer (1996), Seismicity and tectonics of ekstern Anatolia, Bull. IISEE 30, 59-76.
- Kerr, R.A. (2004), Parkfield keeps secrets after a long-awaited quake, Science 306, 5694, 206-207, DOI: 10.1126/science.306.5694.206.
- King, G.C.P., and D.D. Bowman (2003), The evolution of regional seismicity between large earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res. 108, B2, 2096, DOI: 10.1029/2001JB000783.
- Koyama, J., S. Zang, and T. Ouchi (1995), Mathematical modeling and stochastic scaling of complex earthquake activity. In: J. Koyama, and D. Feng (eds.), Advance in Mathematical Seismology, Seismological Press, Beijing, 165-180.
- McClusky, S., S. Balassanian, A. Barka, C. Demir, S. Ergintav, I. Georgiev, O. Gurkan, M. Hamburger, K. Hurst, H. Kahle, K. Kastens, G. Kekelidze, R. King, V. Kotzev, O. Lenk, S. Mahmoud, A. Mishin, M. Nadariya, A. Ouzounis, D. Paradissis, Y. Peter, M. Prilepin, R. Reilinger, I. Sanli, H. Seeger, A. Tealeb, N. Toksöz, and G. Veis (2000), Global Positioning System constraints on plate kinematics and dynamics in the eastern Mediterranean and Caucasus, J. Geophys. Res. 105, B3, 5695-5719, DOI: 10.1029/1996JB900351.
- McKenzie, D. (1972), Active tectonics of the Mediterranean region, Geophys. J. Roy. Astron. Soc. 30, 2, 109-185, DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.1972.tb02351.x.
- Molnar, P. (1979), Earthquake recurrence intervals and plate tectonics, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 69, 1, 115-133.
- Mulargia, F., and R.J. Geller (2003), Earthquake Science and Seismic Risk Reduction, Kluwer Academic Publ., Dordrecht.
- Nekrasova, A., V. Kossobokov, A. Peresan, A. Aoudia, and G.F. Panza (2011), A multiscale application of the unified scaling law for earthquakes in the Central Mediterranean area and Alpine region, Pure Appl. Geophys. 168, 1-2, 297-327, DOI: 10.1007/s00024-010-0163-4.
- Öcal, N. (1968), Seismicity and earthquake geography of Turkey (earthquake catalogue of Turkey for 1950-1960), Kandilli Observatory, Seismology Publications, Istanbul.
- Panthi, A., D. Shanker, H.N. Singh, A. Kumar, and H. Paudyal (2011), Timepredictable model applicability for earthquake occurrence in northeast India and vicinity, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 11, 993-1002, DOI: 10.5194/nhess-11-993-2011.
- Papadimitriou, E.E., C.B. Papazachos, and T.M. Tsapanos (2001), Test and application of the time and magnitude predictable model to the intermediate and deep focus earthquakes in the subduction zones of the circum-Pacific belt, Tectonophysics 330, 1-2, 45-68, DOI: 10.1016/S0040-1951(00)00218-3.
- Papazachos, B.C. (1991), Long-term earthquake prediction in South Balkan region based on a time-dependent seismicity model. In: 1st General Conf. of the Balkan Physical Union, 26-28 September, 1991, Thessaloniki, 1-7.
- Papazachos, B.C. (1992), A time- and magnitude-predictable model for generation of shallow earthquakes in the Aegean Area, Pure Appl. Geophys. 138, 2, 287-308, DOI: 10.1007/BF00878900.
- Papazachos, B.C., and Ch.A. Papaioannou (1993), Long-term earthquake prediction in the Aegean Area based on a time and magnitude predictable model, Pure Appl.Geophys. 140, 4, 593-612, DOI: 10.1007/BF00876578.
- Papazachos, B.C., E.E. Papadimitriou, G.F. Karakaisis, and D.G. Panagiotopoulos (1997a), Long-term earthquake prediction in the circum-Pacific convergent belt, Pure Appl.Geophys. 149, 1, 173-217, DOI: 10.1007/BF00945167.
- Papazachos, B.C., G.F. Karakaisis, E.E. Papadimitriou, and Ch.A. Papaioannou (1997b), The regional time and magnitude predictable model and its application to the Alpine–Himalayan Belt, Tectonophysics 271, 3-4, 295-323, DOI: 10.1016/S0040-1951(96)00252-1.
- Parsons, T. (2004), Recalculated probability of M ≥ 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, J. Geophys. Res. 109, B5, B05304, DOI: 10.1029/2003JB002667.
- Paudyal, H., D. Shanker, H.N. Singh, and V.P. Singh (2009), Application of time and magnitude-predictable model in the Central Himalaya and vicinity for estimation of seismic hazard, Acta Geod. Geophys. Hung. 44, 2, 213-226, DOI: 10.1556/AGeod.44.2009.2.8.
- Pinar, N., and E. Lahn (1952), Detailed catalog of Turkey Earthquake, Ministry of Public Works, Ankara (in Turkish).
- Qin, C., E.E. Papadimitriou, B.C. Papazachos, and G.F. Karakaisis (2001), Timedependent seismicity in China, J. Asian Earth Sci. 19, 1-2, 97-128, DOI: 10.1016/S1367-9120(00)00019-5.
- Sayil, N. (2005), An application of the time- and magnitude-predictable model to long-term earthquake prediction in eastern Anatolia, J. Seismol. 9, 3, 367-379, DOI: 10.1007/s10950-005-0037-x.
- Sayil, N., and I. Osmanşahin (2008), An investigation of seismicity for western Anatolia, Nat. Hazards 44, 1, 51-64, DOI: 10.1007/s11069-007-9141-2.
- Shanker, D., A. Panthi, and H.N. Singh (2012), Long-term seismic hazard analysis in Northeast Himalaya and its adjoining regions, Geosciences 2, 2, 25-32, DOI: 10.5923/j.geo.20120202.04.
- Shimazaki, K., and T. Nakata (1980), Time-predictable recurrence model for large earthquakes, Geophys. Res. Lett. 7, 4, 279-282, DOI: 10.1029/GL007i004p00279.
- Soysal, H., S. Sipahioglu, D. Kolcak, and Y. Altinok (1981), Historical Earthquake Catalog of Turkey and Its Environment, 2100 BC to 1900 AD, TUBITAK, TBAG 341, Ankara (in Turkish).
- Stein, R.S. (2002), Parkfield’s unfulfilled promise, Nature 419, 6904, 257-258, DOI: 10.1038/419257a.
- Taymaz, T., R. Westaway, and R. Reilinger (2004), Active faulting and crustal deformation in the Eastern Mediterranean region, Tectonophysics 391, 1-4, 1-9, DOI: 10.1016/j.tecto.2004.07.005.
- Weisberg, S. (1980), Applied Linear Regression, John Wiley & Sons Inc., New York, 283 pp.
- Weldon, R.J., T.E. Fumal, G.P. Biasi, and K.M. Scharer (2005), Past and future earthquakes on the San Andreas fault, Science 308, 5724, 966-967, DOI: 10.1126/science.1111707.
- Westaway, R. (1990), Present-day kinematics of the plate boundary zone between Africa and Europe, from the Azores to the Aegean, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 96, 3-4, 393-406, DOI: 10.1016/0012-821X(90)90015-P.
- Yadav, R.B.S., D. Shanker, S. Chopra, and A.P. Singh (2010), An application of region al time and magnitude predictable model for long-term earthquake prediction in the vicinity of October 8, 2005 Kashmir Himalaya earthquake, Nat. Hazards 54, 3, 985-1014, DOI: 10.1007/s11069-010-9519-4.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-article-BSL1-0025-0022