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Statistical tools for maximum possible earthquake magnitude estimation

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Wybrane pełne teksty z tego czasopisma
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Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
Several procedures for the statistical estimation of the regioncharacteristic maximum possible earthquake magnitude, mmax , are currently available. This paper aims to introduce and compare the 12 existing procedures. For each of the procedures given, there are notes on its origin, assumptions made in its derivation, condition for validity, weak and strong points, etc. The applicability of each particular procedure is determined by the assumptions of the model and/or the available information on seismicity of the area.
Słowa kluczowe
Czasopismo
Rocznik
Strony
674--700
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 45 poz.
Twórcy
autor
autor
  • Aon Benfield Natural Hazards Research Centre, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa, andrzej.kijko@up.a.za
Bibliografia
  • cytowania@=45
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  • Brandt, M.B.C., B. Bejaichund, E.M. Kgaswane, E. Hattingh, and D.L. Roblin (2005), Seismic History of Southern Africa, Seism. Ser., Vol. 37, Council for Geoscience, Pretoria, 32 pp.
  • Campbell, K.W. (1982), Bayesian analysis of extreme earthquake occurrences. Part I. Probabilistic hazard model, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 72, 5, 1689-1705.
  • Chinnery, M.A. (1979), Investigations of the seismological input to the safety design of nuclear power reactors in New England, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Report NUREG/CR-0563, 72 pp.
  • Cooke, P. (1979), Statistical inference for bounds of random variables, Biometrika 66, 2, 367-374.
  • Cooke, P. (1980), Optimal linear estimation of bounds of random variables, Biometrika 67, 1, 257-258.
  • Coppersmith, K.J. (1994), Conclusions regarding maximum earthquake assessment. In: The Earthquakes of Stable Continental Regions, Vol. 1. Assessment of Large Earthquake Potential, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, 6.1-6.24.
  • Cornell, C.A. (1994), Statistical analysis of maximum magnitudes. In: The Earthquakes of Stable Continental Regions, Vol. 1. Assessment of Large Earthquake Potential, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, 5.1-5.27.
  • Cosentino, P., V. Ficarra, and D. Luzio (1977), Truncated exponential frequencymagnitude relationship in earthquake statistics, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 67, 6, 1615-1623.
  • Cramér, H. (1961), Mathematical Methods of Statistics, 2nd ed., Princeton University Press, Princeton.
  • David, H.A. (1981), Order Statistics, 2nd ed., John Wiley and Sons, New York.
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  • Dwight, H.B. (1961), Tables of Integrals and Other Mathematical Data, 3rd ed., Macmillan Co., New York.
  • EERI Committee on Seismic Risk (H.C. Shah, chairman) (1984), Glossary of terms for probabilistic seismic risk and hazard analysis, Earthq. Spectra 1, 33-40.
  • Field, E.H., D.D. Jackson, and J.F. Dolan (1999), A mutually consistent seismichazard source model for southern California, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 89, 3, 559-578.
  • Gentle, T.E. (1977), Least absolute values estimation: An introduction, Commun. Stat. B6, 313-328.
  • Gibowicz, S.J., and A. Kijko (1994), An Introduction to Mining Seismology, Academic Press, San Diego, 399 pp.
  • Gnedenko, B. (1943), Sur la distribution limite du terme maximum d’une série aléatoire, Ann. Math. 44, 3, 423-453 (in French).
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  • Hamilton, R.M. (1967), Mean magnitude of an earthquake sequence, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 57, 5, 1115-1116.
  • Jin, A., and K. Aki (1988), Spatial and temporal correlation between coda Q and seismicity in China, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 78, 2, 741-769.
  • Kijko, A. (1994), Seismological outliers: L1 or adaptive Lp norm application, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 84, 2, 473-477.
  • Kijko, A. (2004), Estimation of the maximum earthquake magnitude, mmax, Pure Appl. Geophys. 161, 8, 1655-1681.
  • Kijko, A., and G. Graham (1998), Parametric-historic procedure for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Part I: Estimation of maximum regional magnitude mmax, Pure Appl. Geophys. 152, 3, 413-442.
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  • Kijko, A., S. Lasocki, and G. Graham (2001), Non-parametric seismic hazard in mines, Pure Appl. Geophys. 158, 9-10, 1655-1675.
  • Kijko, A., S.J.P. Retief, and G. Graham (2002), Seismic hazard risk assessment for Tulbagh, South Africa: Part I – Assessment of seismic hazard, Nat. Hazards 26, 2, 175-201.
  • Kijko, A., G. Graham, M. Singh, D. Roblin, and M.B.C. Brandt (2009), Probabilistic PGA and spectral acceleration seismic hazard maps for South Africa. Invited lecture, Workshop R1 “Earthquake Hazard”, The IASPEI General Assembly in Cape Town, 11-16 January 2009 (abstract).
  • Mueller, C.S. (2010), The influence of maximum magnitude on seismic-hazard estimates in the central and eastern United States, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 100, 2, 699-711.
  • Page, R. (1968), Aftershocks and microaftershocks of the great Alaska earthquake of 1964, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 58, 3, 1131-1168.
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  • Pisarenko, V.F., A.A. Lyubushin, V.B. Lysenko, and T.V. Golubieva (1996), Statistical estimation of seismic hazard parameters: Maximum possible magnitude and related parameters, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 86, 3, 691-700.
  • Press, W.H., B.P. Flannery, S.A. Teukolsky, and W.T. Vetterling (1994) Numerical Recipes: The Art of Scientific Programming, Cambridge University Press, New York.
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  • Silverman, B.W. (1986), Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis, Chapman and Hall, London.
  • Stein, R.S., and T.C. Hanks (1998), M ≥ 6 earthquakes in southern California during the twentieth century: No evidence for a seismicity or moment deficit, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 88, 3, 635-652.
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  • Wheeler, R.L. (2009), Methods of Mmax estimation east of the Rocky Mountains, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2009-1018, 44 pp.
  • Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) (1995), Seismic hazards in southern California: Probable earthquakes, 1994 to 2024, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 85, 2, 379-439.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-article-BSL1-0014-0029
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