Modelling flow changes in potential climate change conditions - an example of the Kaczawa basin

• Autorzy: Kuchar L. , Iwański S. , Jelonek L. , Szalińska W.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Climate change, regardless of the causes shaping its rate and direction, can have far-reaching environmental, economic and social impact. A major aspect that might be transformed as a result of climate change are water resources of a catchment. The article presents a possible method of predicting water resource changes by using a meteorological data generator and classical hydrological models. The assessment of water resources in a catchment for a time horizon of 30-50 years is based on an analysis of changes in annual runoff that might occur in changing meteorological conditions. The model used for runoff analysis was the hydrological rainfall-runoff NAM model. Daily meteorological data essential for running the hydrological model were generated by means of SWGEN model. Meteorological data generated for selected climate change scenarios (GISS, CCCM and GFDL) for the years 2030 and 2050 enabled analysing different variants of climate change and their potential effects. The presented results refer to potential changes in water resources of the Kaczawa catchment. It should be emphasized that the obtained results do not say which of the climate change scenarios is more likely, but they present the consequences of climate change described by these scenarios.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

climate change; flow modeling; Kaczawa basin; river basin; hydrological models; SWGEN model

PL

zmiany klimatu; modelowanie przepływu; Kaczawa rzeka; modele hydrologiczne; zlewnia rzeki; model SWGEN; dorzecze rzeki

• Wydawca: De Gruyter
• Czasopismo: Studia Geotechnica et Mechanica
• Rocznik: 2012
• Tom: Vol. 34, nr 2
• Strony: 51--62
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 19 poz., tab., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Kuchar L.

autor

Iwański S.

autor

Jelonek L.

autor

Szalińska W.

• Department of Mathematics, Wrocław University of Life Sciences

Bibliografia

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