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Modelling flow changes in potential climate change conditions - an example of the Kaczawa basin

Identyfikatory
Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
Climate change, regardless of the causes shaping its rate and direction, can have far-reaching environmental, economic and social impact. A major aspect that might be transformed as a result of climate change are water resources of a catchment. The article presents a possible method of predicting water resource changes by using a meteorological data generator and classical hydrological models. The assessment of water resources in a catchment for a time horizon of 30-50 years is based on an analysis of changes in annual runoff that might occur in changing meteorological conditions. The model used for runoff analysis was the hydrological rainfall-runoff NAM model. Daily meteorological data essential for running the hydrological model were generated by means of SWGEN model. Meteorological data generated for selected climate change scenarios (GISS, CCCM and GFDL) for the years 2030 and 2050 enabled analysing different variants of climate change and their potential effects. The presented results refer to potential changes in water resources of the Kaczawa catchment. It should be emphasized that the obtained results do not say which of the climate change scenarios is more likely, but they present the consequences of climate change described by these scenarios.
Wydawca
Rocznik
Strony
51--62
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 19 poz., tab., rys.
Twórcy
autor
autor
autor
  • Department of Mathematics, Wrocław University of Life Sciences
Bibliografia
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  • [12] KUCHAR L., S. IWAŃSKI, Generation of Daily Spatial Meteorological Data for the Needs of Environmental Modeling, Conference Abstracts of Fourth European Conference on Applied Climatology ECAC 2002, Brussels 12.11.2002–15.11.2002, 54–55.
  • [13] KUCHAR L., BAC S., Szacowanie parowania potencjalnego w okresie zimowym za pomocą zmodyfikowanego wzoru Turca dla potrzeb modelowania hydrologicznego [in:] Aktualne problemy rolnictwa, gospodarki żywnościowej i ochrony środowiska, Wyd. AR we Wrocławiu, 2006, 205–214.
  • [14] KUCHAR L., IWAŃSKI S., Application of Spatial Weather Generator for Runoff Simulation in River Catchment, Agricontrol 2007 Proc. of 2nd IFAC Intern. Conf. on Modeling and Design of Control Systems in Agriculture, 2–5 September 2007, Osijek, 4.
  • [15] LALL U., SHARMA A., A nearest neighbour bootstrap for resampling hydrologic time series, Water Resour. Res., 1996, 32, 679–693.
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Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-article-BPW8-0022-0011
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