Prediction of Turkey's denim trousers export using artificial neural networks and the autoregressive integrated moving average model

Özbek, A.; Akalin, M.; Topuz, V.; Sennaroglun, B.

Artykuł - szczegóły

Tytuł artykułu

Prediction of Turkey's denim trousers export using artificial neural networks and the autoregressive integrated moving average model

Autorzy

Özbek A. , Akalin M. , Topuz V. , Sennaroglun B.

Wybrane pełne teksty z tego czasopisma

Identyfikatory

Warianty tytułu

Prognoza tureckiego eksportu dżinsów przy wykorzystaniu sztucznych sieci neuronowych i całkowego modelu autoregresji

Języki publikacji

Abstrakty

In this study, Turkey's denim trouser export was predicted using ANN and ARIMA models.ANN models were composed from the import of denim trousers, the minimum wage, the price of cotton, electricity, and water, the value of TRY against USD, the credit usage of ready-made clothing enterprises, export credits, the real effective exchange rate, brands of denim trousers, and the denim trouser Balasa Index. It is observed that the best prediction is provided by MLP, the second - with ERNN and the third - with ARIMA. The reason why the export of denim trousers is not completely modeled can be explained by the economic downturn, which began in 2008 and still continues. However, it is clearly seen that ANN models predict more successfully than ARIMA ones.

W artykule prognozowano eksport dżinsów z Turcji za pomocą sztucznych sieci neuronowych i modelu ARIMA. Strukturę sztucznych sieci neuronowych opracowano na podstawie importu, minimalnego wynagrodzenia, ceny bawełny, elektryczności, wody, kursu waluty tureckiej w stosunku do dolara, kredytu obciążającego przedsiębiorstwa produkujące gotowe wybory, kredytów eksportowych, rzeczywistego efektywnego współczynnika wymiany, marek spodni dżinsowych i indeksu Balassy. Zaobserwowano, że najlepsze prognozowanie uzyskuje się stosując struktury MLP, następnie ERNN i jako ostatnie ARIMA. Przyczyną dla której eksportu dżinsów nie da się jednoznacznie modelować jest pogorszeni sytuacji ekonomicznej trwające od 2008 roku do chwili obecnej.

Słowa kluczowe

Artificial Neural Networks ARIMA prediction export denim pants

sztuczne sieci neuronowe ARIMA prognoza eksportu dżinsów eksport spodnie dżinsowe

Wydawca

Sieć Badawcza Łukasiewicz - Łódzki Instytut Technologiczny

Czasopismo

Fibres & Textiles in Eastern Europe

Rocznik

2011

Tom

Vol. 19, no. 3 (86)

Strony

10--16

Opis fizyczny

Bibliogr. 25 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Özbek A.

autor

Akalin M.

autor

Topuz V.

autor

Sennaroglun B.

Turkey, Göztepe Istanbul, Marmara University,, Technical Education Faculty Faculty of Technical Education, aozbek@marmara.edu.tr

Bibliografia

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3. Karaali F. Ç. Ulengin F.; “Predicting Unemployment Rates With The Use Of Cognitive Mapping Methodology And Artificial Neural Networks” İtüdegisi/d Engineering Vol.7, Num.3, 2008, pp. 15-26.
4. Co C., H.; Boosarawongse R. (2007) “Forecasting Thailand’s Rice Export: Statistical Techniques vs. Artificial Neural Networks” Computers & Industrial Engineering 53, Page. 610-627.
5. Usta A.S.: “Forecasting Model And Analyse Of Producers Price İndex (PPI) İn Turkey By Using Artificial Neural Network Application” MSc. Thesis, Yıldız Technical University, 2007, Turkey.
6. Zou H.F.; Xia G.P.; Yang F.T.; Wang H.Y.: “An Investigation and Comparison of Artificial Neural Network and Time Series Models for Chinese Food Grain Price Forecasting” Neurocomputing 70, 2007, pp. 2913-2923.
7. Ertuğrul I.; Tokat S.; Aytac E.; Tus A.“A Case Study For Forecasting Denizli City Manufacturing Industry Export Data Using Artifıcial Neural Networks” Proceedings of 4th International Symposium on Intelligent Manufacturing Systems, Sakarya University, Turkey, 2005.
8. Bas N. “Artificial Neural Networks Approach And An Application” MSc. Thesis, Mimar Sinan Arts University, Turkey, 2006.
9. Bayır F. “Artificial Neural Networks And Application On Forecasting” MSc. Thesis, Istanbul Technical University, Turkey, 2006.
10. Glenn A. R.; “Finished Good Sourcing Decisions in The US Apparel Industry After Implementation Of The Agrement on Textiles and Clothing” Degree Doctor of Philosophy, The Ohio State University, USA, 2006.
11. Kabal A.K. “The Economic Policies Practised İn Between 1980-2005 And Their Effects On Foreign Trade” MSc. Thesis, Ataturk University, Turkey, 2007.
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13. Keleş İ.; “The Characteristics Of Textile And Clothes Sectors And The Position And İmportance Of Them İn Turkish Export” MSc. Thesis, Gazi University, Turkey, 2000.
14. Colak G. “Export Incentives and Türk Eximbank” MSc. Thesis, Gazi University, Turkey, 2007.
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16. Topcul M. “Türk Eximbank Kredi Programları, İhracat Kredi Sigortası ve Garantisi” MSc. Thesis, Marmara University, Turkey, 2004.
17. Çifci S. “Brand And Brand Loyalty: An İnvestigation About University Students’jean Choices And Brand Loyalty” MSc. Thesis, Abant İzzet Baysal University, Turkey, 2006.
18. Görgülü A. “Branding İn Textile And Apparel İndustry İn Turkey And İts İnfluence On Export” MSc. Thesis, Uludağ University, Turkey, 2006.
19. Çıplak U. “Competitiveness İndicators And An Evaluation With Respect To Turkish Manufacturing İndustry Goods Exports” MSc. Thesis, Gazi University, Turkey, 2007.
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23. Demuth H.; Mark B.; “ Neural Network Toolbox User’s Guide” The MathWorks, Inc. MA, 2002.
24. Hagan T. M; Demuth H.B; Beale M.;“Neural Network Design” PWS Publishing Company, 1996, pp. 2-44.
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Typ dokumentu

Bibliografia

Identyfikator YADDA

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