Modeling the Evolution of the Romanian Textile Industry: Empirical Evidence of Lead-lag and Causal Relationships

• Autorzy: Tudor C.

Warianty tytułu

PL

Modelowanie rozwoju rumuńskiego przemysłu tekstylnego. Empiryczna identyfikacja zależności między trendami

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The objective of this paper is to investigate and explain the evolution of the Romanian textile industry over the last decade. Potential explanatory factors, both systematic and industry-specific, for the dramatic industry decay are identified e.g. the disappearance of the primary industry, the continuous increase in the minimum wage in Romania, an acute labour shortage, the liberalisation and full integration of the textile industry into GATT in 2005 and the recent global economic crisis. Furthermore we present empirical evidence of the linkages and causality between the overall economic growth of Romania, the evolution of the country's textile industry and the rate of growth of the minimum wage in the economy during June 2000 and January 2011. We found that the lagged minimum wage growth and lagged textile industry sales growth together explain 80% of the future rate of growth in the country's gross domestic product (GDP). All econometric tests conducted using our dataset agree that past and contemporaneous increases in minimum wages have had a significant negative impact on the textile industry. Finally, Granger causality tests reveal that the rate of growth in the GDP is driven by sales in the textile industry, and at the same time textile industry sales also drives macroeconomic growth. This bilateral causality is significant at 5% in both cases, being stronger from the industry-level to the economy-level.

PL

Celem tej pracy jest badanie przemian rumuńskiego przemysłu tekstylnego w ciągu ostatniej dekady. Zidentyfikowano przyczyny zaniku przemysłu tekstylnego w Rumunii, zarówno wewnętrzne jak i zewnętrzne, w tym brak siły roboczej, liberalizacja i pełna integracja przemysłu tekstylnego w zakresie GATT w 2005 roku, a ostatnio globalny kryzys ekonomiczny.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Romanian textiles industry; explanatory factors; GDP growth; minimum wages; Granger causality

PL

przemysł tekstylny w Rumunii; czynniki wyjaśniające; wzrost PKB; płace minimalne

• Wydawca: Sieć Badawcza Łukasiewicz - Łódzki Instytut Technologiczny
• Czasopismo: Fibres & Textiles in Eastern Europe
• Rocznik: 2012
• Tom: Vol. 20, no. 4 (93)
• Strony: 8--12
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 11 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Tudor C.

• Romania, Bucharest, Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, International Business and Economics Department

Bibliografia

• 1. The Romanian Ministry of Labor, Family and Social Protection, http://www.mmuncii.ro/en/legislatie-venituri-salaria-le-254-view.html.
• 2. Ministry of Economy, Commerce and Business Environment, www.minind.ro.
• 3. Herman E, Georgescu M. Correlations between the average wage and labor productivity in Romania in the context of the socio-economic sustainable development, www.upm.ro/proiecte/EEE/Conferences/papers/S403.pdf.
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• 7. Choi W, Powell N, Cassill N. New product development and its applications in textiles. Journal of  Textile  and Apparel, Technology  and Management 2005; 4, 4: 1–28.
• 8. Conway P, Connolly R, Field A, Longman D. The North Carolina textile project: An initial report. Journal  of  Textile and Apparel, Technology  and Management 2003; 3, 3: 1–12.
• 9. Francois J, Spinanger D. From rags to riches but then what? Hong Kong’s Textile and Clothing Industry vs. the ATC and China’s WTO accession. In: Fourth annual  conference  on  global  economic analysis, Purdue University, Indiana, 2001, pp. 27–29.
• 10. Enders W. Applied econometric time series. New York: Wiley, 1995.
• 11. Granger CW. Investigating causal relations by economic models and crossspectral methods. Econometrica  1969; 37; 3: 424–38.