Scenariusze powodziowe do wspomagania decyzji w czasie powodzi

• Autorzy: Radoń R.

Warianty tytułu

EN

Flood scenarios to support decisions during flood period

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

EN

This paper presents application of flood scenarios, which are in possession of Coordination and Information Center for Flood Protection (OKI), a department of Regional Water Management Authority in Kraków. Flood scenarios describe situation during the flood on a specified area with definite flood hazard degrees. Flood scenarios contain information about water and levee elevation in specific crosssections and along longitudinal profiles of river beds, about discharge values in case of an overflow over levee and extent of the flood wave with determined exceedence probability or extent of historical floods. Flood scenarios are divided into static and dynamic ones. Static scenarios do not present flood distribution in time, but only the maximum extent of a flood wave with determined exceedence probability. On the other hand, dynamic scenarios present flood expansion in time taking into consideration, for instance,, levee breakage or washing out, polder opening, or influence of a retention reservoir. Additionally, both static and dynamic scenarios are divided into historical scenarios (with records of flood progression in the past) and hypothetical scenarios (models of floods with values calculated on the basis of the phenomenon that is probable to happen in the future, taking into consideration specific features of a basin ). In view of data availability, at present it is only possible to formulate static scenarios. The range of individual scenarios is connected with the range of flood wave transformation model, which is in possession of OKI. Nowadays OKI has flood scenarios for the following river sections: m Wisła from Goczałkowice reservoir to Gromiec water-gauge, m Wisła from Gromiec water-gauge to Smolice water-gauge, m Wisła from Smolice water-gauge to Popędzynka water-gauge, m Wisła from Popędzynka water-gauge to Karsy water-gauge, m Wisła from Karsy water-gauge to Szczucin water-gauge, m Wisła from Szczucin water-gauge to Sandomierz water-gauge, m Wisła from Sandomierz water-gauge to Zawichost water-gauge, m Soła below Czaniec reservoir to estuary, m Skawa below .winna Poręba reservoir to estuary, m Raba below Dobczyce reservoir to estuary, m Uszwica from Okocim resort to estuary, m Dunajec below Sromowce Wyżne reserwoir to the Rożnów reservoir backwater, m Dunajec below Czchów reservoir to estuary, m Nida below Czarna and Biała Nida joint to estuary, m Wisłoka from Jasło town to estuary, m San from Dynów water-gauge to estuary, m Wisłok from Łęki Strzyżowskie resort to estuary. Currently, OKI administers flood scenarios for the 1%, 2%, 10% and 20% exceedence probabilities for all river-sections specified above. Because of lack of Digital Model Terrain (DTM) for the whole area, flood hazard zones were formulated only for Wisła, Raba and Nida sections and enclosed to the flood scenarios. Flood hazard zones for others sections will be formulated and systematically enclosed in the future as databases in OKI within DTM are fulfilled. Works connected with new scenarios for other values of probability are proceeding all the time. The aim of this presentation is to show the results of these works and to get familiar with the role of the scenarios in thedecision supporting process in case of flood.

Słowa kluczowe

PL

powódź; zagrożenie powodziowe; mapa zagrożenia powodziowego; zarządzanie ryzykiem powodziowym

EN

flood; flood hazard; flood scenario; flood hazard map; flood risk management

• Wydawca: Polskie Towarzystwo Informacji Przestrzennej
• Czasopismo: Roczniki Geomatyki
• Rocznik: 2006
• Tom: T. 4, z. 1
• Strony: 113--119

Twórcy

autor

Radoń R.

• Regionalny Zarząd Gospodarki Wodnej w Krakowie,