Some remarks on the method of cross-influence of events

• Autorzy: Dorosiewicz S.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The sufficient condition of existence and uniqueness of forecasts made by the method of cross-influence of events is formulated and proved. This result is ilustrated by the forecasts of the volume of road transport in Poland up to the year 2025.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

transport; forecasting; cross-influence of events

PL

transport; prognozowania; transport drogowy

• Wydawca: Międzynarodowa Wyższa Szkoła Logistyki i Transportu we Wrocławiu
• Czasopismo: Logistics and Transport
• Rocznik: 2011
• Tom: Vol. 13, No. 2
• Strony: 93--98
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 11 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Dorosiewicz S.

• Motor Transport Institute and Warsaw School of Economics, Poland,

Bibliografia

• [1] Asan U., Bozdag C.E., Polat S., A fuzzy approach to qualitative cross-impact analysis, Omega 32, 2004.
• [2] R.W. Blanning, B.A. Reinig, Cross-impact analysis using group decision support systems: an application to the future of Hong Kong, Futures 31 (1), 1999.
• [3] Choi C., Kim S., Park Y., A patent-based cross impact analysis for quantitative estimation of technological impact: The case of information and communication technology, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, vol. 74, 2007.
• [4] Cieślak M. Prognozowanie gospodarcze. Metody i zastosowania. PWN, Warszawa 1997r.
• [5] Bereziński M. O jednej z metod badania wpływu narzędzi ekonomicznych na rynek usług transportowych. Opracowanie w ramach projektu badawczego KBN, nr 909452-92-03. ITS, Warszawa 1994.
• [6] Dorosiewicz S., Dorosiewicz T. Some remarks on the method of cross influence of events. Application to forecasting of transport developments. Arc-hives of Transport, vol 12, Issue 1, 2000r.
• [7] Enzer S, Delphi and cross-impact techniques: An effective combination for systematic futures analysis, Futures 3, 1971.
• [8] Gordon T.J., Hayward H. Initial Experiments with the Cross-Impact Matrix Method of Forecasting. Futures, vol. 1, no 2, 1962.
• [9] Jeong G.H., Kim S.H., A qualitative cross-impact approach to find the key technology, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 55, 1997.
• [10] Makridakis S., Wheelwright S.C., Forecasting Methods for Management, New York, J. Wiley and Sons, 1989.
• [11] Sveshnikov S., Bocharnikov V., Forecasting Financial Indexes with Model of Composite Events Influence, Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Volume IV, Issue 3(9), 2009.