Empirical verification of certain method for forecasting non-stationary processes.

• Autorzy: Galanc T. , Mikuś J. , Molasy M.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The paper presents an empirical verification of the method for forecasting non-stationary processes. The forecast and the estimation of its error are obtained as a result of solving two forecast parameter estimation problems. The verification is presented by means of such a real process as the power system load. The analysis of predicting the quality changes, depending on the changes in values of its determinants, is carried out. The analysis proves that the prediction method being verified yields good results - the forecasts computed based on it are reliable, because their errors do not exceed 3%.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

empirical verification; forecast parameter; predicting; forecasting; non-stationary process; prediction method; statistical data

PL

weryfikacja empiryczna; parametr przewidywania; przewidywanie; prognozowanie; proces niestacjonarny; metoda przewidywania; dane statystyczne

• Wydawca: Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Wrocławskiej
• Czasopismo: Systems : journal of transdisciplinary systems science
• Rocznik: 2000
• Tom: Vol. 5, No. 1-2
• Strony: 131--144
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 5 poz., rys. 6, tab. 6

Twórcy

autor

Galanc T.

autor

Mikuś J.

autor

Molasy M.

• Computer Science and Management Faculty, Institute of Industrial Engineering and Management, Wrocław University of Technology, Wybrzeże Wyspiańskiego 27, 50-370 Wrocław, Poland.