Reach of river channel filling forecasting by means of autoregression integrated moving a verage method (ARIMA-models)

• Autorzy: Baranenko F.F.

Warianty tytułu

PL

Model ARIMA napełniania koryta rzeki ulewnymi odpadami

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This review considers the application of statistical methods and ARIMA (autoregression integrated moving average) models to rainfall-runoff modeling and flood forecasting have been discussed. This is a relatively emerging field of research, characterized by a wide variety of techniques, an amenity of hulk source data, a possibility of intermodel comparisons, determina-tion its adequacy to observable data and also inconsistent reporting of model skin. The paper outlines the basic principles of ARIMA modeling and algorithms used. Literature survey underlines the need for clear guidance in current ARIMA modeling practice, as well as the comparison of ARIMA models with already existing models of rainfall-runoff. Accordingly, a template is proposed in order to assist the construction of future ARIMA rainfall-runoff models.

PL

Przedstawiono zastosowanie metod statystycznych, w tym zwłaszcza modelu ARIMA (autoregresji całkowanej zmiennej średniej), do prognozowania przebiegu sytuacji powodziowych. Omówiono zastosowanie modelu ARIMA do opisu powsta-wania wód powodziowych spowodowanych ulewnymi deszczami oraz spływu tych wód.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

ARIMA models; correlation function; determination coefficient; flood forecasting; hydrology; model; rainfall-runoff

PL

model ARIMA; funkcje korelacji; modele hydrologiczne; zapobieganie powodziom

• Wydawca: Towarzystwo Chemii i Inżynierii Ekologicznej
• Czasopismo: Ecological Chemistry and Engineering. A
• Rocznik: 2008
• Tom: Vol. 15, nr 12
• Strony: 1419--1423
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 4 poz., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Baranenko F.F.

• Kuban State University, Department of Computer Technologies and Applied Mathematics, 149 Stavropolskaya street, Kras-nodar, Russia,

Bibliografia

• [1] Baranenko F.F. and Voituk A.V.: Short-term forecasting of Krasnodar storage pond filling using ARIMA-models. Applied mathematics of XXI century: Materials of VI joint scientific conference of students and post-graduate students of Applied Mathematics Department, 2006.
• [2] Baranenko F.F., Voituk A.V., Semenchin E.A. and Gricai V.V.: Short-term forecasting of water level in Krasnodar storage pond. Ecological bulletin of research centres of the Black Sea economic cooperation. Special issue, 2006.
• [3] Baranenko F.F., Voituk A.V. and Semenchin E.A.: Adaptive models of linear growth usage for short-term forecasting of storage pond filling. Applied and industrial mathematics review. VII All-Russian conference on applied and industrial mathematics, 2007.
• [4] Baranenko F.F., Voituk A.V. and Semenchin E.A.: Short-term forecasting of water level in Krasnodar storage pond using ARIMA-models and other methods, Collected thesis of regional RFFR grantees competition and Krasnodar region administration "South of Russia: fundamental researches contribution to contemporary innovation economics development in Krasnodar region", 2006.