Wybrane problemy nauki o bezpieczeństwie.

• Autorzy: Szopa T.

Warianty tytułu

EN

Some problems of safety science.

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

PL

W artykule zasygnalizowano wybrane ogólne problemy nauki o bezpieczeństwie i współczesne koncepcje ich rozwiązywania, prezentowane w licznych opracowaniach książkowych, artykułach i na konferencjach. Przedstawiono niektóre z nich, takie jak: miary ryzyka, modelowanie strat, wybór metody analizy ryzyka, modelowanie ryzyka, niepewność i niedokładność w modelowaniu ryzyka, rola ekspertów w modelowaniu i analizie ryzyka.

EN

This paper describes some problems of safety science and current conceptions of its solutions. One of such problems is the choice of the quantities which should be treated as the measures of risk and the measures of hazard. An influence on the choice have among other things: a way of loss arising (immediate or long-standing), purpose and precision of intended risk analysis. Each of measures of risk is a function only of hazard measure and reliability measure. Modelling of individual and social losses is other important problem of safety science. It should be stressed that modelling of losses is a base of hazard modelling and in consequence of risk modelling. Modelling of individual human losses arising as a results of long-standing exposure to harmful conditions is especially difficult. Most of the applied models of individual losses have qualitative and discrete nature. Principles of the choice of risk analysis method is also a hard scientific problem. Many methods have been presented in numerous publications and applied in practice. They differ meaningful one another. The choice of right method depend on a number of factors. One of them is the aim of the analysis. The most important aims are: - estimation of risk level, - search for most effective manner to reduce the risk. In many cases of risk analysis the probabilistic methods (PRA) are especially useful. Risk modelling is next scientific problem. A form of risk model depends on risk analysis method that have been selected. Human reliability model is the most important part of each risk model. Construction of human reliability model and locating human factor in safety analysis are difficult problems and they have very strong effect on accuracy of risk analysis results. Computer codes are widely used form of risk models that have quantitative nature. Other important problems of safety science described in this paper are: uncertainties and inaccuracy in risk modelling and the role of experts in modelling and analysis of risk.

Słowa kluczowe

PL

bezpieczeństwo; miary ryzyka; modelowanie strat ludzkich; modelowanie ryzyka; niepewność w modelowaniu ryzyka; niedokładność w modelowaniu ryzyka; rola ekspertów

EN

safety; risk measures; human loss modelling; risk modelling; uncertainty in risk modelling; inaccuracy in risk modelling; expert role

• Wydawca: Komitet Budowy Maszyn PAN
• Czasopismo: Zagadnienia Eksploatacji Maszyn
• Rocznik: 2002
• Tom: Vol. 37, nr 1
• Strony: 161--181
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 44 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Szopa T.

• Politechnika Warszawska, Wydział Mechaniczny Energetyki i Lotnictwa, Instytut Techniki Lotniczej i Mechaniki Stosowanej, ul. Nowowiejska 24, 00-665 Warszawa

Bibliografia

• [1] The Abbreviated Injury Scale 1990 Revision. Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine, 2340 Des Plaines Ave, Des Plaines, IL 60018, USA, 1990.
• [2] Akkermans, D.E., Claessens, M.N.A.J.: Two cases from the chemical industry expert judgment. Proc. PS AM, Beverly Hills 1991.
• [3] Allen, F.R., Garlik, A.R., Hayans, M.R., Taig, A.R.: The management of risk to society from potential accidents. Elsevier, London and New York 1992.
• [4] Apostolakis, G.: The distinction between aleatory and epistemic uncertainties is important. An example from the inclusion of aging effects into PSA. Proc. PSA’99, Washington 1999.
• [5] Brandowski, A.: Bezpieczeństwo systemów technicznych. Proc. Int. Conf. „Risk Analysis and Safety Management of Technical Systems”, Gdańsk 2001.
• [6] Brandowski, A.: Ocena bezpieczeństwa systemu technicznego. Mat. IV Kongr. Eksploat. Urządz. Techn., Krynica 2001.
• [7] BS 8800: 1996. Guide to Occupational Health and Safety Management Systems.
• [8] Cooke, R.M.: Experts in Uncertainty. Oxford University Press, 1991.
• [9] Davis, P.A., Olague, N.E.: Treatment of modeling uncertainties in total system safety assessments. Proc. PSAM, Beverly Hills 1991.
• [10] Dugan, J.B.: Fault-tree analysis of computer-based systems. Proc. Symp. „Reliability and Maintainability”, Washington 1999.
• [11] Fragola, J.R.: Human reliability analysis, risk assessment. Proc. Symp. „Reliability and Maintainability”, Washington 1999.
• [12] Frank, M.V.: Case studies of uncertainty analysis in reliability and risk assessment. Proc. Symp. „Reliability and Maintainability”, Washington 1999.
• [13] Gertman, D.I., Blackman, H.S.: Human reliability and safety analysis data handbook. J. Wiley, 1994.
• [14] Goossens, L.H.J., Vogt, F.J.: Probit relations of hazardous materials and expert opinions. Proc. PSAM, Beverly Hills 1991.
• [15] Goossens, L.H.J., Cooke, R.M.: Procedures guide for the use of expert judgement in uncertainty analyses. Proc. ESREL’96 - PSAM III, Crete 1996.
• [16] Górski, J.: Developing safety cases for software intensive systems. Proc. Int. Conf. „Risk Analysis and Safety Management of Technical Systems”, Gdańsk 2001.
• [17] Hanayasu, S., Tang, W.T.: Prediction of large-scale accidents in construction industry. Proc. ESREL’96 - PSAM III, Crete 1996.
• [18] Harms-Ringdahl, L.: Safety analysis. Principles and practice in occupational safety. Elsevier, London and New York 1993.
• [19] Johnson, D.H., Wakefield, D.J., Cameron, R.: Use of PSA in risk management at a research reactor. Proc. PSA’99, Washington 1999.
• [20] Kosmowski, K.T., Degen, G., Mertens, J., Reer, В.: Development of advanced methods and related software for human reliability evaluation within probabilistic safety analysis. Institut für Sicherheitsforschung und Reaktortechnik Jülich, 1994.
• [21] Kosmowski, K.T.: Aktualne problemy analizy ryzyka i zarządzania bezpieczeństwem w systemach technicznych. Proc. Int. Conf. „Risk Analysis and Safety Management of Technical Systems”, Gdańsk 2001.
• [22] Kruse, R., Gebhardt, J., Klawonn, F.: Foundations of fuzzy systems. J. Wiley, 1994.
• [23] Markowski, A.: Analiza efektów fizycznych i skutków awaryjnych uwolnień substancji chemicznych do otoczenia. W: Zapobieganie Stratom w Przemyśle, cz. III. Politechnika Łódzka, Łódź 2000.
• [24] Markowski, A.S.: Ilościowa analiza ryzyka dla instalacji magazynowych gazów skroplonych. Proc. Int. Conf. „Risk Analisys and Safety Management of Technical Systems”, Gdańsk 2001.
• [25] New Trends in Systems Reliability Evaluation. K.B. Misra (ed.), Elsevier 1993.
• [26] Opschoor, G., van Loo, R.O.M., Pasman, H.J.: Methods for calculation of damage resulting from physical effects of the accidental release of dangerous materials. Proc. PSAM, Beverly Hills 1991.
• [27] Pancewicz, T., Suchodolski, S., Szopa, T.: Probabilistyczna analiza ryzyka w lotach szybowcowych. ZEM, 1999, 3.
• [28] Pancewicz, T., Suchodolski, S., Szopa, T.: Modelowanie ryzyka powodzi w systemie człowiek-budowle hydrauliczne-środowisko na przykładzie zbiornika retencyjnego terenów podgórskich. Mat. KONBIN 2001, t. 2, Szczyrk 2001.
• [29] Papazoglou, I.A., Aneziris, O., Christou, M., Nivolianitou, Z.: Probabilistic safety analysis of an ammonia storage plant. Proc. PSAM, Beverly Hills 1991.
• [30] Railsback, J.W., Simion, G.P.: A Probabilistic approach of incorporating safety and reliability in system designs for a manned mission to mars. Proc. PSA’99, Washington 1999.
• [31] Rasmussen, J.: Market economy, management culture and accident causation: New research issues? Proc. 2nd World Congress on Safety Science, 1993.
• [32] Redmill, F.: Subjectivity in risk analysis. Proc. Int. Conf. „Risk Analysis and Safety Management of Technical Systems”, Gdańsk 2001.
• [33] Reer, В.: Evaluation of new developments in cognitive error modeling and quantification: time reliability correlation. Proc. ESREL’96 - PSAM III, Crete 1996.
• [34] Roland, H.E., Moriarty, B.: System safety engineering and management. J.Wiley, New York 1992.
• [35] Rouvroye, J.L., Goble, W.M., Brombacher, A.C.: A Comparison study of qualitative and quantitative analysis techniques for the assessment of safety in industry. Proc. ESREL’96 - PSAM III, Crete 1996.
• [36] Saltelli, A., Chan, K., Scott, E.M.: Mathematical and statistical methods for sensitivity analysis. J. Wiley, 2000.
• [37] Smeder, M., Christou, M., Besi, S.: Risk assessment for land-use planning purposes in the european union. Proc. ESREL’96 - PSAM III, Crete 1996.
• [38] Surace, G., Casetta, O.P.: Man-Machine interaction analytical approach. Proc. ESREL’96 -PSAM 111, Crete 1996.
• [39] Szopa, T.: Podstawy racjonalnego oddziaływania na niezawodność obiektu mechanicznego w fazie jego konstruowania. Prace Nauk. PW, z. 106. Politechnika Warszawska, Warszawa 1987.
• [40] Szopa, T.: Principles of safety modelling. The archive of mechanical engineering, 1998, 2.
• [41] Szopa, T.: Statistical risk analysis in glider flight. The archive of mechanical engineering, 1998, 3.
• [42] Szopa, T.: Niezawodność i bezpieczeństwo. W: Podstawy Konstrukcji Maszyn, t. I. WNT, Warszawa 1999.
• [43] Szopa, T.: Metody analizy ryzyka w ocenie poziomu hałasu. Mat. IV Konf. Nauk.-Techn. „Hałas-Zdrowie-Profilaktyka”, Kołobrzeg 2000.
• [44] Von Winterfeldt, D., Bonano, E.J., Keeney, R.L., Hora, S.C.: The formal elicitation of expert judgements for performance assessment of HLW repositories. Proc. PSAM, Beverly Hills 1991.