Tradycyjne metody detekcji cykliczności procesów hydrometeorologicznych na przykładzie rzeczywistych ciągów pomiarowych

• Autorzy: Feliks M.

Warianty tytułu

EN

Classical methods of investigating the periodic strukture of the cerrtain hydologic sequences

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

EN

Intensive increase of computational power available to process data, being collected and produced, caused that a large numberr of inwestigation method was constructed, and a large amount of different cycle of the climatic system variations was found. Some of them have strong physical support or natural explanation but major kinds of this periodicity have no confirmation, neither physical nor environmental. Astronomic cycles cause periodicity in various physical processes within the atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere system. If the interactions within the components of the climatic system combine properly and balance each other, they can give roughly cyclic variations. But therre is other possible way that can give rise to periodicity. For short time series, cyclicity may often be the result of sampling fluctuation. In that case it is called pseudo or sampling cyclicity. Determining that these pseudo-cycles are not statistically significant poses the main problem for analysis. The objective of this text is to present four methods considered as classical and relevant tools to solve problems of cyclic climatic variations. Various historical time series was put under analyze by applied described methods. It was shown how could the results for particular method differ from each other. No physical explanation for found varrious cycles is provided in the paper. The methods employed are: regression, autocorrelation function, periodogram and spectral density function. The data used are: monthly water level of the Baltic sea in Świnoujście (S) in the period 1986-1997, precipitation totals (P mm) in July at Warsaw over 1811-1960 and mean air temperature (7°C) in July at Warsaw over 1811-1960, annual flows of the River Odra at Słubice for the period 1951-1989 and annual mean Wolf numbers for the period 1749-1996. Figures 1-2 shows plotted time series for every phenomenon. Plot of the raw data set versus time makes possible recognition of the patterns how process evaluate can. It is the best starting point for further investigation. Another pictures present the way how particular method works.

Słowa kluczowe

PL

klimat; procesy hydrometeorologiczne; rzeczywiste ciągi pomiarowe

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo Politechniki Krakowskiej im. Tadeusza Kościuszki
• Czasopismo: Czasopismo Techniczne. Środowisko
• Rocznik: 2002
• Tom: R. 99, z. 5-Ś
• Strony: 13--22
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 11 poz., wz., wykr., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Feliks M.

• Instytut Inżynierii i Gospodarki Wodnej, Politechnika Krakowska

Bibliografia

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• [2] Box G.E.P., Jenkins G.M., Analiza szeregów czasowych, PWN, Warszawa 1983.
• [3] Jeż G., Jokiel P., Kożuchowski K., Cykliczne zmiany przepływów w rzekach europejskich na tle wahań opadów atmosferycznych, Wiadomości IMGW X(XXXI), z. 4, 1987, s. 3-19.
• [4] Kaczmarek Z., Metody statystyczne w hydrologii i meteorologii, WKiŁ, Warszawa 1970.
• [5] Mitosek H.T., Odzwierciedlenie wahań klimatu w rocznych seriach czasowych - podejście statystyczne, Przegląd Geograficzny, nr 1-2, 1992, s. 7-17.
• [6] Ozimek E., Podstawy teoretyczne analizy widmowej sygnałów, PWN, Warszawa-Poznań 1985.
• [7] Próchnicki J., W sprawie pojęć dotyczących globalnych zmian klimatu, Wiadomości IMGW XXII(XLIII), z. 4, 1999, s. 35-42.
• [8] Venegas S.A., Statistical methods for signal detection in climate, DCESS Report #2, Danish Center for Earth System Science, Niels Bohr Institute for Astronomy, Physics and Geophysics, University of Copenhagen, Denmark, 2001.
• [9] Yevjevich V., Stochastic processes in hydrology, Water Resources Publications, Ft Collins, Colorado, USA, 1972b.
• [10] Yevjevich V., Structural analysis of hydrologic time series, Hydrology Papers Colorado State University, Ft Collins, Colorado, USA, 1972.
• [11] Zieliński R., Zieliński W., Tablice statystyczne, PWN, Warszawa 1990.