Understanding the dynamics of bank vole populations: demographic variability, stochasticity and density dependence

• Autorzy: Yoccoz N. , Stenseth N.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The observed variability of population dynamics in influenced by many interacting components, most of them being difficult to estimate. Sampling variance, demographic and environmental stochasticity, together with density dependence and more deterministic changes in the environment such as changes in forestry practice and landscape patterns, simultaneously affect our understanding of bank vole population dynamics patterns. Integrating these difference variability components in a common framework is a considerable challenge. We explore in this paper some of the tools currently available for analysing population dynamics and demographic patterns in the bank vole, Clethrionomys glareolus. The study of an alpine population of bank voles is used to illustrate how demographic studies and time-series analysis may be associated in the future.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

capture-recapture; Clethrionomys; seasonality; stochastic models; time-series analysis

• Wydawca: Museum and Institute of Zoology, Polish Academy of Sciences
• Czasopismo: Polish Journal of Ecology
• Rocznik: 2000
• Tom: Vol. 48, Suppl.
• Strony: 75--86
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 75 poz., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Yoccoz N.

• Department of Arctic Ecology, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Polar Environmental Centre, N-9296 Tromso, Norway

autor

Stenseth N.

• Division of Zoology, Department of Biology, University of Oslo, POB 1050 Blindem, N-0316 Oslo, Norway

Bibliografia

• [1]. Akaike H. 1973 - Information theory as an extension of the maximum likelihood principle (In: Second International Symposium on Information Theory, Eds B.N. Petrov, F. Csaki) - Akademiai Kiado, Budapest, pp. 267-281.
• [2]. Alibhai S.K., Gipps J.H.W. 1985 - The population dynamics of bank voles - Symp. Zool. Soc. Lond., 55: 277-313.
• [3]. Anderson D.R., Burnham K.P., White G.C. 1994 - AIC model selection in overdispersed capture-recapture data - Ecology, 75: 1780-1793.
• [4]. Benton T.G., Grant A. 1999 - Elasticity analysis as an important tool in evolutionary and population ecology - Trends Ecol. Evol., 14: 467-471.
• [5]. Bjørnstad 0.N., Falek W., Stenseth N.C. 1995 -A geographic gradient in small rodent density fluctuations: a statistical modelling approach - Proc. R. Soc., Lond. B, 262: 127-133.
• [6]. Bjørnstad O.N., Stenseth N.C., Saitoh T., Ling-j aerde O.C. 1998 - Mapping the regional transition to cyclicity in Clethrionomys rufocanus: Spectral densities and functional data analysis - Res. Pop. Ecol., 40: 77-84.
• [7]. Bjørnstad O.N., Fromentin J.-M., Stenseth N.C., Gjeisæter J. 1999 - Cycles and trends in cod populations. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA, 96: 5066-5071.
• [8]. Brownie C., Hines J.E., Nichols J.D., Pollock K.H., Hestbeck J.B. 1993 - Capture-recapture studies for multiple strata including non-Markovian transitions - Biometrics, 49: 1173-1187.
• [9]. Bujaska G. 1983 - Reproduction (In: Ecology of the bank vole, Ed. K. Petrusewicz) - Acta theriol., 28 Suppl. 1: 148-161.
• [10]. Bujalska G. 1985 - Regulation of female maturation in Clethrionomys species, with special reference to an island population of C. glareolus - Ann. Zool. Fenn., 22: 331-342.
• [11]. Bujalska G. 1997 - Winter survival in an island population of the bank vole - Pol. ecol. Stud., 21: 423-433.
• [12]. Bulmer M.G. 1975 - The statistical analysis of density dependence - Biometrics, 31: 901-911.
• [13]. Burnham K.P., Anderson D.R. 1998 - Model selection and inference. A practical information theoretic approach - Springer-Verlag, New York.
• [14]. Burnham K.P., Anderson D.R., White G.C., Brownie C., Pollock K.H. 1987 - Design and analysis methods for fish survival experiments based on release-recapture - Am. Fish. Soc. Monogr., 5, Bethesda, Maryland.
• [15]. Caswell H. 1978 - A general formuła for the sensitivity of population growth rate to changes in life history parameters - Theor. Pop. Biol., 14: 215-230.
• [16]. Caswel I H. 1989 - Matrix population models: constructions, analysis and interpretation - Sinauer, Sunderland, Mass., USA.
• [17]. Chesson P.L. 1978 - Predator-prey theory and variability - Ann. Rev. Ecol. Syst., 9: 323-347.
• [18]. Clobert J., Lebreton J.-D. 1991 - Estimation of demographic parameters in bird populations (In: Bird population studies. Relevance to conservation and management, Eds. C.M. Perrins, J.-D. Lebreton, G.J.M. Hirons) - Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp. 75-104.
• [19]. Clobert J., Lebreton J.-D., Allainć D., Gaillard J.-M. 1994 - The estimation of age-specific breeding probabilities from recaptures or resightings in vertebrate populations. II. Longitudinal models - Biometrics, 50: 375-387.
• [20]. Cox D.R., Snell E.J. 1989 - Analysis of binary data - Chapman and Hall, London.
• [21]. Dennis B., Taper M.L. 1994 - Density dependence in time series observations of populations: estimation and testing - Ecol. Monogr., 64: 205-224.
• [22]. Engen S., B akke O., Islam A. 1998 - Demographic and environmental stochasticity - concepts and definitions - Biometrics, 54: 840-846.
• [23]. Fitzmaurice G.M. 1997 - Model selection with overdispersed data - The Statistician, 46: 81-91.
• [24]. Fitzmaurice G.M., Heath A.F., Cox D.R. 1997 - Detecting overdispersion in large scale surveys: Application to a study of education and social class in Britain - Appl. Statist., 46: 415-426.
• [25]. Framstad E., Stenseth N.C., Björnstad O.N., Falek W. 1997 - Limit cycles in Norwegian lem-mings: tensions between phase-dependence and density-dependence - Proc. R. Soc., Lond. B, 264: 31-38.
• [26]. Fuller W.A. 1987 - Measurement error models - John Wiley and Sons, New York.
• [27]. Fuller W.A. 1995 - Estimation in the presence of measurement error - Int. Stat. Rev., 63: 121-148.
• [28]. Gliwicz J. 1983 - Survival and life span (In: Ecology of the bank vole - Ed. K. Petrusewicz) - Acta theriol. 28, Suppl. 1: 161-172.
• [29]. Hansen T.F., Stenseth N.C., Henttonen H. 1999 - Multiannual vole cycles and population regulation during long winters: An analysis of seasonal density dependence - Am. Nat., 154: 129-139.
• [30]. Hansson L., Henttonen H. 1985 - Regional differences in cyclicity and reproduction in Clethrionomys species: are they related? - Ann. Zool. Fenn., 22: 277-288.
• [31]. Hansson L., Jędrzejewska B., Jędrzejewski W. 2000 - Regional variability in dynamics of bank vole populations - Pol. J. Ecol. 48, (Suppl.): 163-177.
• [32]. Henttonen H., McGuire A.D., Hansson L. 1985 - Comparison of amplitudes and frequencies (spectral analysis) of density variations in long-term data sets of Clethrionomys species - Ann. Zool. Fenn., 22: 221-227.
• [33]. Hestbeck J.B., Nichols J.D., Malecki R.A. 1991 - Estimates of movement and site fidelity using markresight data of wintering Canada geese -Ecology, 72: 523-533.
• [34]. Ims R.A., Y occoz N.G. 1997 - Studying transfer processes in metapopulations: emigration, migration, and colonization (In: Metapopulation biology. Ecology, genetics and evolution, Eds. I. Hanski, M.E. Gilpin) - Academic Press, San Diego, California, pp. 247-265.
• [35]. Ito Y. 1972 - On the methods for determining density-dependence by means of regression - Oecologia, 10: 347-372.
• [36]. Johannesen E., Ims R.A. 1996 - Modelling survival rates: habitat fragmentation and destruction in root vole experimental populations - Ecology, 77: 1196-1209.
• [37]. Julliard R., Prévot-Julliard A.-C., Leirs H., Stenseth N.C., Yoccoz N.G., Verhagen R., Verheyen W. 1999 - Density-dependent and density-independent survival in the African multimammate rat Mastomys natalensis - J. Anim. Ecol., 68: 550-561.
• [38]. Krebs C.J., Boutin S., Boonstra R., Sinclair A.R.E., Smith J.N.M., Dale M., Martin K, Turkington R. 1995 - Impact of food and predation on the snowshoe hare cycle - Science, 269: 1112-1115.
• [39]. Lambin X., Yoccoz N.G. 1998 - The impact of population kin-structure on nestling survival in Townsend's voles, Microtus townsendii - J. Anim. Ecol., 67: 1-16.
• [40]. Lebreton J.-D. 1990 - Modelling density dependence, environmental variability, and demographic stochasticity from population counts: an example using Wytham Wood great tits (In: Population biology of passerine birds, Eds. J. Blondel, A. Gosler, J.-D. Lebreton, R.H. McCleery) - Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 89-102.
• [41]. Lebreton J.-D., Clobert J. 1991 - Bird population dynamics, management, and conservation: the role of mathematical modelling (In: Bird population studies. Relevance to conservation and management, Eds. C.M. Perrins, J.-D. Lebreton, G.J.M. Hirons) - Oxford University Press, Oxford, 105-125.
• [42]. Lebreton J.-D., Burnham K.P., Clobert J., Anderson D.R. 1992 - Modeling survival and testing biological hypotheses using marked animals: a unified approach with case studies - Ecol. Monogr., 62: 67-118.
• [43]. Lebreton J.-D., North P.M. 1993 - Marked indivi-duals in the study of bird populations - Birkhauser-Verlag, Basel.
• [44]. Lefkovitch L.P. 1965 - The study of population growth in organisms grouped by stages - Biometrics, 21: 1-18.
• [45]. Leirs H., Stenseth N.C., Nichols J.D., Hines J.E., Verhagen R., Verheyen W. 1997 - Stochastic seasonality and nonlinear density-dependent factors regulate population size in an African rodent -Nature, 389: 176-180.
• [46]. Lewellen R.H., Vessey S.H. 1998 - The effect of density dependence and weather on population size of a polyvoltine species - Ecol. Monogr., 68: 571-594.
• [47]. Martin T.E., Clobert J., Anderson D.R. 1995 -Return rates in studies of life history evolution: are biases large? - J. Appl. Stat., 22: 863-875.
• [48]. McCullagh P., Nelder J.A. 1989 - Generalized linear models - Chapman and Hall, London.
• [49]. Metz J.A.J., Nisbet R.M., Geritz S.A.H. 1992 - How should we define fitness for general ecological scenarios? - Trends Ecol. Evol., 7: 198-202.
• [50]. Nichols J.D., Pollock K.H. 1983 - Estimation methodology in contemporary small-mammal captu-rerecapture studies - J. Mammal., 64: 253-260.
• [51]. Orzack S.H., Tuljapurkar S.D. 1989 - Population dynamics in a variable environment. VII. The demography and evolution of iteroparity - Am. Nat., 133: 901-923.
• [52]. Pradel R., Johnson A.R., Viallefont A., Nager R.G., Cézilly F. 1997 - Local recruitment in the Greater Flamingo: A new approach using capture-mark-recapture data - Ecology, 78: 1431-1445.
• [53]. Prévot-Julliard A.-C., Henttonen H., Yoccoz N.G., Stenseth N.C. 1999 - Delayed maturation of young females bank vole: optimal decision or social constraint? - J. Anim. Ecol., 68: 684-697.
• [54]. Rand D.A., Wilson H.B., McGlade J.M. 1994 - Dynamics and evolution: evolutionary stable auractors, invasion exponents and phenotype dynamics - Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc., Lond. B, 343: 261-283.
• [55]. Reboulet A.-M., Viallefont A., Pradel R., Lebreton J.-D. 1999 - Model selection and study of local recruitment with program SURGE 5 - Bird Study, 46: 148-156.
• [56]. Royama T. 1992 - Analytical population dynamics - Chapman and Hall, London, UK.
• [57]. Schwarz C.J., Arnason A.N. 1996 - A general methodology for the analysis of capture-recapture experiments in open populations - Biometrics, 52: 860-873.
• [58]. Shenk T.M., White G.C., Burnham K.P. 1998 - Sampling-variance effects on detecting density dependence from temporal trends in natural populations - Ecol. Monogr., 68: 445-463.
• [59]. Steen H., Ims R.A., Sonerud G.A. 1996 - Spatial and temporal patterns of smalt-rodent population dynamics at a regional scale - Ecology, 77: 2365-2372.
• [60]. Stenseth N.C. 1999 - Population cycles in voles and lemming: density dependence and phase dependency in a stochastic world - Oikos, 87: 427-461.
• [61]. Stenseth N.C., Gustafsson T.O. 1985 - Reproductive rates, survival, dispersal and cyclicity in Clethrionomys species: some theoretical considerations - Ann. Zool. Fenn., 22: 289-301.
• [62]. Stenseth N.C., Bjørnstad O.N., Falek W. 1996a - Is spacing behaviour coupled with predation causing the microtine density cycle? A synthesis of current process-oriented and pattern-oriented studies - Proc. R. Soc., Lond. B, 263: 1423-1435.
• [63]. Stenseth N.C., Bjørnstad O.N., Saitoh T. 1996b - A gradient from stable to cyclic populations of Clethrionomys rufocanus in Hokkaido, Japan - Proc. R. Soc., Lond. B, 263: 1117-1126.
• [64]. Stenseth N.C., Chan K.S., Framstad E., Tong H. 1998a - Phase- and density-dependent population dynamics in Norwegian lemmings: interaction between deterministic and stochastic processes - Proc. R. Soc., Lond. B, 265: 1957-1968.
• [65]. Stenseth N.C., Falek W., Chan K.-S., Bjørnstad O.N., O'Donoghue M., Tong H., Boonstra R., Boutin S., Krebs C.J., Yoccoz N.G. 1998b - From patterns to processes: phase and density dependencies in the Canadian lynx cycle - Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA, 95: 15430-15435.
• [66]. Stenseth N.C., Björnstad ON., Falek W., Fromentin J.-M., Gjoswter J., Gray J. S. 1999 - Dynamics of coastal cod populations: intra- and intercohort density dependence and stochastic processes - Proc. R. Soc., Lond. B, 266: 1645-1654.
• [67]. Sæther B.-E., Engen S., Islam A., McCleery R., Perrins C. 1998 - Environmental stochasticity and extinction risk in a population of a smalt songbird, the great tit - Am. Nat., 151: 441-450.
• [68]. Tuljapurkar S.D. 1990 - Population dynamics in variable environments - Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
• [69]. Tuljapurkar S., Caswell H. 1996 - Structuredpopulation models in marine, terrestrial, and fresh-water ecosystems - Chapman and Hall, New York.
• [70]. Usher M.B. 1966 - A matrix approach to the management of renewable resources, with special reference to selection forests - J. Appl. Ecol., 3: 355-367.
• [71]. White G.C., Burnham K.P. 1999 - Program MARK: survival estimation from populations of marked animals - Bird Study, 46: 120-139.
• [72]. Yoccoz N.G., Mesnager S. 1998 - Are alpine bank voles larger and more sexually dimorphic because adults survive better? - Oikos, 82: 85-98.
• [73]. Yoccoz N.G., Steen H., Ims R.A., Stenseth N.C. 1993 - Estimating demographic parameters and the population size: an updated methodological survey (In: The biology of lemmings, Eds. N.C. Stenseth, R.A. Ims) - Academic Press, London, 565-587.
• [74]. Yoccoz N.G., Nakata K., Stenseth N.C., Saitoh T. 1998 - The demography of Clethrionomys rufocanus: from mathematical and statistical models to further field studies - Res. Pop. Ecol., 40: 107-121.
• [75]. Zejda J. 1971 - Differential growth of three cohorts of the bank vole, Clethrionomys glareolus Schreb. 1870 - Zool. Listy, 20: 229-245.