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A probabilistic model of vessel traffic at the intersection of a ferry crossing with a fairway

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Treść / Zawartość
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Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
The article presents a model of vessel traffic at the intersection based on an idea of a ship domain at the intersection. To determine the domain of a fairway unit some kinds of errors and accuracy were used: accuracy of distance, accuracy of ship's length and error of her speed. To determine the ferry domain a deviation of the time of the ferry reaching a centre of intersection was applied. Danger zones for the ferry crossing have been determined. In area of a danger zone a collision sub-zone and a sub-zone of excessive approach have been distinguished. For description of the stream of entries of fairway units the Poisson stream with variable intensity was applied. The probability of avoiding collision during the ferries' crossing the intersection has been determined.
Słowa kluczowe
Rocznik
Tom
Strony
41--54
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 20 poz., rys., tab.
Twórcy
autor
  • Maritime University of Szczecin
Bibliografia
  • [1] Ciletti M., Traffic Models for use in Vessel Traffic Systems, The Journal of Navigation, 1978, vol. 31, no. 1.
  • [2] Coldwell T. G., Marine Traffic Behaviour in Restricted Waters, The Journal of Navigation, 1983, vol. 36, no. 2.
  • [3] Ferry crossing Police – Swieta, Simulation researches of vessel traffic in Police port at the aspect of optimisation of ferry crossing parameters (in Polish), Materials of Institute of Navigation at the Maritime University of Szczecin, Szczecin 1997.
  • [4] Fujii Y., Development of Marine Traffic Engineering in Japan, The Journal of Navigation, 1977, vol. 30, no. 1.
  • [5] Gajek L., Kałuszka M., Statistical Inference (in Polish), WNT, Warsaw 1996.
  • [6] Galor W., Estimate models of risk of Ship Impact in technical structure (in Polish), Scientific Papers of Maritime University of Szczecin 70, Szczecin 2003.
  • [7] Gucma L., Ships Traffic Intensities in Szczecin Port and on the Szczecin – Swinoujscie Waterway (in Polish), Scientific Papers of Maritime University of Szczecin 70, Szczecin 2003.
  • [8] Gucma S., Jagniszczak I., Sea Navigation for Captains (in Polish), Foka Publishing House, Szczecin 1997.
  • [9] Gucma S., New Methods of Navigational Risk Used for the Optimisation of Parameters of the Szczecin – Swinoujście Fairway. Proceedings of the 1st International Congress of Seas and Oceans, Szczecin – Miedzyzdroje 2001.
  • [10] Gucma S., Optimisation of waterway parameters (in Polish), Scientific Papers of Maritime University of Szczecin 53, Szczecin 1997.
  • [11] Kasyk L., Application of elliptic domain to analysis of vessel traffic on a ferry crossing (in Polish), Scientific Papers of Maritime University of Szczecin 55, Szczecin 1998.
  • [12] Kasyk L., Empirical distribution of the number of ship reports on the fairway Szczecin – Swinoujście, XIV International Scientific and Technical Conference The part of navigation in support of human activity on the sea, Gdynia 2004.
  • [13] Kasyk L., Probability Model of a Ferry Crossing, VIII International Scientific and Technical Conference on Marine Traffic Engineering, Szczecin 1999.
  • [14] Kasyk L., Probability of Avoiding a Collision Situation on the Police – Swieta Ferry Crossing, IX International Scientific and Technical Conference on Marine Traffic Engineering, Szczecin 2001.
  • [15] Klimov G. P., Mass queuing processes (in Polish), WNT, Warsaw 1979.
  • [16] Massaiu S., Models of behaviour and human error, Proceedings of the European Conference on Safety and Reliability – ESREL 2005, Balkema, Gdańsk/Poland 2005.
  • [17] Montgomery D. C., Runger G. C., Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York 1994.
  • [18] Paulauskas V., Ships navigational risk assessment in port areas, Proceedings of the European Conference on Safety and Reliability – ESREL 2005, Balkema, Gdańsk/Poland 2005.
  • [19] Piszczek W., Analytical model of intersection of fairway with ferry crossing (in Polish), Scientific Papers of Maritime University of Szczecin 37, Szczecin 1990.
  • [20] Researches of vessel traffic control system on the Szczecin – Swinoujscie waterway (in Polish), Materials of Institute of Navigation at the Maritime University of Szczecin, Szczecin 1986 (no published).
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-article-BATA-0001-0089
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