Dynamics of a 2L-baroclinic model of the troposphere. Part 2: impact of the zonal drift on bifurcations in the model

• Autorzy: Brojewski R. , Jakubiak B. , Jasiński J.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The paper presents results of numerical analyses related with assessment of the impact of mean zonal drift in the troposphere on the properties of the dynamics of a simple two-layer model of the baroclinic troposphere. It was proved that the model dynamics is mainly influenced by zonally differentiated surface temperature. It causes numerous bifurcations. They are often Hopf bifurcations of the second kind during which tropospheric states quite distant from the states before the bifurcations are generated. It significantly influences the model predictability. The paper contributes to the assessment of applicability of hydrodynamic models to weather forecasting for periods longer than two weeks.

Słowa kluczowe

PL

dynamika troposfery; bifurkacja Hopfa; atmosfera baroklinowa; prognozowanie pogody; model atmosfery; model hydrodynamiczny; dryfowanie strefowe

• Wydawca: Instytut Podstawowych Problemów Techniki PAN
• Czasopismo: Journal of Technical Physics
• Rocznik: 2005
• Tom: Vol. 46, no 4
• Strony: 203--218
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 13 poz., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Brojewski R.

• Warsaw University, ICM Pawińskiego 5a, 02-106 Warszawa, Poland
• AVIOMET Ltd. Mila 25/7, 01-033 Warszawa, Poland

autor

Jakubiak B.

• Warsaw University, ICM Pawińskiego 5a, 02-106 Warszawa, Poland

autor

Jasiński J.

• Military University of Technology Kaliskiego 2, 00-908 Warszawa, Poland
• AVIOMET Ltd. Mila 25/7, 01-033 Warszawa, Poland

Bibliografia

• 1. R. BROJEWSKI, A.F. GONCHARENKO, N.N. IVACHTCHENKO, D.M. SONECHKIN, B. JAKUBIAK, Low-frequency localization of planetary wave phases in H500 field of the Northern Hemisphere [in Russian), Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 4, 25-30, 2003.
• 2. R. BROJEWSKI, Bifurcation of zonal flow in the atmosphere due to orographic factors dependence of the results of computation on the accuracy of modelling, J. Tech. Phys., 37, 1, 101-126, 1996.
• 3. R. BROJEWSKI, J. JASIŃSKI, About the properties of attraction sets of two models of physics of the atmosphere, J. Tech. Phys., 44, 3, 235-252, 2003.
• 4. R. BROJEWSKI, A.F. GONCHARENKO, N.N. IVACHTCHENKO, D.M. SONECHKIN, Localization of planetary wave phases in //soo field of the Northern Hemisphere [in Russian], Singularity of climate and methods of weather's fenomena prediction, 336, 179-191, Gidromet 2001.
• 5. R. BROJEWSKI, A.F. GONCHARENKO, N.N. IVACHTCHENKO, D.M. SONECHKIN, B. JAKUBIAK, Low-frequency localization of planetary wave phases in the 500 hPa geopotential field of the Northern Hemisphere, Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 4, 42-46, 2003.
• 6. R. BROJEWSKI, B. JAKUBIAK, J. JASIŃSKI, Impact of the surface temperature and the zonal drift on the orographic bifurcation and blocking in Sl-baroclinic model of the troposphere, J. Tech. Phys., 45, 3, 1-19, 2004.
• 7. R. BROJEWSKI, B. JAKUBIAK, J. JASIŃSKI, Dynamics of a Sl-baroclinic model of the troposphere. Part 1: Thermal bifurcation and blocking, J. Tech. Phys., 46, 3, 131-147, 2005.
• 8. B. JAKUBIAK, Instabilites in a large-scale atmospheric flow, V International Symposium on Military Meteorology, Proceedings p. 89-94, Poznań, September 29 - October 02, 2003.
• 9. S. MANABE, Climate Dynamics, Academic Press, Inc., 1985.
• 10. S. MANABE, Weather Dynamics, Academic Press, Inc., 1985.
• 11. D.M. SONECHKIN, R. BROJEWSKI, ENSO: A quasiperiodic forced dynamical system, International workshop on the low-frequency modulation of ENSO, 23-25 Touluse, September 2003.
• 12. PBP AVIOMET Ltd., Research report [in Polish], No. (1 and 2)/ICM/GR1503, 2002-2003.
• 13. PBP AVIOMET Ltd., Research report [in Polish], No. 3/ICM/GR1503, 2004.