Analogous forecasting of products with a short life cycle

• Autorzy: Szozda N.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Managing a supply chain for products with a short life cycle, like fashion apparel, high-tech, personal computers, toys, CD’s etc., is challenging for many companies (Fisher and Raman, 1999). Because the life cycles of these products are too short for standard time-series forecasting methods (not longer than one – two years), an important way of overcoming the challenges of managing supply chains for such products is to find appropriate forecasting methodologies. The standard forecasting methods require some historical data, which are often unavailable at the time when the forecasts are being performed for products with a short life cycle (Lin, 2005). The method described in this article allows forecasters to use life cycles of similar, analogous products to arrive at the initial forecasts for the product(s) at hand.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

short life cycle; analogous forecasting; measure of similarity; calibrating; adjusting the length

• Wydawca: AGH University of Science and Technology Press
• Czasopismo: Decision Making in Manufacturing and Services
• Rocznik: 2010
• Tom: Vol. 4, no. 1-2
• Strony: 71--85
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. [24] poz., wykr., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Szozda N.

• Wrocław University of Economics, Poland

Bibliografia

• Azoury, K., 1985. Bayes solution to dynamic inventory models under unknown demand distributions. Management Science, 31(9), 1150–1160.
• Burruss, J., Kuettner, D., 2002/2003. Forecasting for short-lived product: Hewlett-packard’s journey. The Journal of Business Forecasting Methods & Systems, pp. 9–14.
• Brzeziński, J., 1997. Metodologia badań psychologicznych. Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa.
• Cieślak, M., Jasiński, R., 1979. Miara podobieństwa funkcji. Przegląd Statystyczny, z. 3/4, pp. 169–173.
• Cieślak, M., Ed.), 2000. Prognozowanie gospodarcze. Metody i zastosowania. Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa.
• Dittmann, P., 2002. Metody prognozowania sprzedaży w przedsiębiorstwie. Wydawnictwo Akademii Ekonomicznej im. Oskara Lanego, Wrocław.
• Duncan, G.T., Gorr, W.L., Szczypula, J., 2001. Forecasting analogous time series [in:] Armstrong J.S., (Ed.): Principles of forecasting, pp. 195–213. Boston.
• Fisher, M., Raman, A., 1996. Reducing the cost of demand uncertainty through accurate response to early sales. Operations Research, 44(1), 87–99.
• Fisher, M., Raman, A., 1999. Managing short life-cycle products. Ascet, 1, 4/15.
• Green, K.C., Armstrong, F.S., 2007. Structured analogies for forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 23(3), 365–376.
• Harpaz, G., Lee, W.Y., Winkler, R.L., 1982. Optimal output decisions of a competitive firm. Management Science, 28(6), 589–602, June.
• Johnson, G., Thompson, H., 1975. Optimality of myopic inventory policies for certain dependent demand processes. Management Science, 21(11), 1303–1307.
• Kahn, K.B., 2002. An exploratory investigation of new product forecasting practices. The Journal of Product Innovation Management, 19, 133–143.
• Kahn, K.B., 2006. New Product Forecasting: An Applied Approach. M.E. Sharpe, New York.
• Kurawarwala, A. A., Matsuo, H., 1996. Forecasting and inventory management of short life-cycle products. Operations Research, 44(1), 131–150.
• Lee, Y.W., Goodwin, P., Fildes, R., Nikolopoulos, K., Lawrence, M., 2007. Providing support for the use of analogies in demand forecasting tasks. International Journal of Forecasting, 23(3), 377–390.
• Lin Feng-Jenq, 2005. Forecasting telecommunication new service demand by analogy method and combined forecast. Yugoslav Journal of Operations Research, 15(1), 97–107.
• Lindsay, D.A., Norman, P.H., 1977. Human information processing: An introduction to psychology. Academic Press, London.
• Miller, B.L., 1986. Scarf’s state reduction method, flexibility, and a dependent demand inventory model. Operations Research, Vol. 34, No 1, January–February, pp. 83–90.
• Nikolopoulos, K., Goodwin, P., Patelis, A., Assimakopoulos, V., 2007. Forecasting with cue information: A comparison of multiple regression with alternative forecasting approaches. European Journal of Operational Research, 180(1), 354–368.
• Nowak, E. (Ed.), 1998. Prognozowanie gospodarcze. Metody, modele, zastosowania, przykłady. Agencja Wydawnicza PLACET, Warszawa.
• Ray, W.D., 1982. Arima forecasting models in inventory control. Journal of Operational Research Society, 33(6), 567–574, June 1982.
• Szanduła, J., 2002. Metody analogowe w prognozowaniu społeczno gospodarczym. PhD thesis, Department of Forecast and Economic Analyzes in Wroclaw University of Economics, Wrocław.
• Wu, S.D., Aytac, B., 2007. Characterization of demand for short life-cycle technology products. Technical report, Lehigh University, Raport No. 07T–005.