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The art and science of modeling decision-making under severe uncertainty

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Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
For obvious reasons, models for decision-making under severe uncertainty are austere. Simply put, there is precious little to work with under these conditions. This fact highlights the great importance of utilizing in such cases the ingredients of the mathematical model to the fullest extent, which in turn brings under the spotlight the art of mathematical modeling. In this discussion we examine some of the subtle considerations that are called for in the mathematical modeling of decision-making under severe uncertainty in general, and worst-case analysis in particular. As a case study we discuss the lessons learnt on this front from the Info-Gap experience.
Rocznik
Strony
111--136
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 19 poz., rys., wykr., tab.
Twórcy
  • Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Australia
Bibliografia
  • 1. M. Avriel, Nonlinear programming analysis and methods, Prentice-Hall, 1976.
  • 2. Y. Ben-Haim, Information Gap Decision Theory, Academic Press, 2001.
  • 3. Y. Ben-Haim, Info-Gap Decision Theory, Elsevier, 2006.
  • 4. Y. Ben-Haim, Value-at-risk with info-gap uncertainty, The Journal of Risk Finance, 6 (5) (2005), 388–403.
  • 5. A. Ben-Tal, L. El Ghaoui, A. Nemirovski, Mathematical Programming, Special issue on Robust Optimization, Volume 107 (1–2), 2006.
  • 6. S.D. French, Decision Theory, Ellis Horwood, 1988.
  • 7. R. Grunig, R. Kuhn, Successful decision-making, Springer-Verlag. 2005.
  • 8. S.F. Hillier, G.J. Lieberman, Introduction to Operations Research, 8th edition, McGraw Hill, 2005.
  • 9. R.E. Markland, J.R. Sweigart, Quantitative Methods: Applications to Managerial decision-making, John Wiley, 1987.
  • 10. P. Kouvelis, G. Yu, Robust Discrete Optimization and Its Applications, Kluwer, 1997.
  • 11. C.T. Ragsdale, Spreadsheet Modeling and Decision Analysis, Thomson, 2004.
  • 12. B. Rustem, M. Howe, Algorithms for Worst-case Design and Applications to Risk Management, Princeton University Press, 2002.
  • 13. M. Sniedovich, OR/MS Games: 3. The Counterfeit coin problem, INFORMS Transactions in Education, 3 (2003), 2, 32–41.
  • 14. M. Sniedovich, What is wrong with Info-Gap? An Operations Research Perspective, Working Paper MS-1-06, presented at the ASOR Mini-Conference, Dec 1, 2006, Melbourne, Australia, 2006.
  • 15. R. Steuer, Multiple Criteria Optimization: Theory, Computation and Application, John Wiley, 1985.
  • 16. H. Vladimirou, S.A. Zenios, Stochastic Programming and Robust Optimization, Chapter 12 in Gal T. and Greenberg H.J. (Eds) Advances in Sensitivity Analysis and Parametric Programming, Kluwer, 1997.
  • 17. A. Wald, Statistical decision functions which minimize the maximum risk, The Annals of Mathematics, 46 (1945), 2, 265–280.
  • 18. A. Wald, Statistical Decision Functions, John Wiley, 1950.
  • 19. W.L. Winston, Operations Research: Applications and Algorithms, Duxbury Press, 1994
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-article-AGH8-0002-0031
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