Forecasting study of mains reliability based on sparse field data and perspective state space models

• Autorzy: Valis David , Forbelská Marie , Vintr Zdeněk

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.17531/ein.2020.2.1

Warianty tytułu

PL

Prognozowanie niezawodności elementów sieci wodociągowej na podstawie rzadkich danych terenowych i modeli przestrzeni stanów

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The elements of critical infrastructure have to meet demanding dependability, safety and security requirements. The article deals with the prognosis of water mains reliability while using sparse irregular filed data. The data are sparse because the only thing we know is the number of mains failures during a given month. Since it is possible to transform the data into a typical reliability measure (rate of failure occurrence – ROCOF), we can examine the course of this measure development in time. In order to model and predict the ROCOF development, we suggest novel single and multiple error state space models. The results can be used for i) optimizing mains operation and maintenance, ii) estimating life cycle cost, and iii) planning crisis management.

PL

Elementy infrastruktury krytycznej muszą spełniać wysokie wymagania w zakresie niezawodności, bezpieczeństwa i ochrony. Artykuł dotyczy prognozowania niezawodności sieci wodociągowej przy wykorzystaniu nieregularnie rejestrowanych rzadkich danych. Wykorzystane w pracy dane są rzadkie, ponieważ dostarczają jedynie informacji na temat liczby uszkodzeń wodociągu w danym miesiącu. Przekształcenie tych danych w typową miarę niezawodności (wskaźnik występowania uszkodzeń – ROCOF), pozwala zbadać przebieg rozwoju tej miary w czasie. Rozwój ROCOF można modelować i przewidywać za pomocą zaproponowanych w pracy innowacyjnych modeli przestrzeni stanów uwzględniających pojedynczy błąd lub wiele błędów. Uzyskane wyniki można wykorzystać do i) optymalizacji pracy i eksploatacji sieci wodociągowej, ii) szacowania kosztów cyklu życia, oraz iii) planowania zarządzania kryzysowego.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

mains; critical infrastructure; reliability prognosis; sparse data; state space models

PL

sieć wodociągowa; infrastruktura krytyczna; prognoza niezawodności; rzadkie dane; model przestrzeni stanów

• Wydawca: Polskie Naukowo-Techniczne Towarzystwo Eksploatacyjne
• Czasopismo: Eksploatacja i Niezawodność
• Rocznik: 2020
• Tom: Vol. 22, no. 2
• Strony: 179--191
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 40 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Valis David

• Department of Combat and Special Vehicles University of Defence Kounicova str. 65, 662-10 Brno, Czech Republic Faculty of Transport and Computer Science, University of Economics and Innovation, Projektowa 4, 20-209 Lublin, Poland

autor

Forbelská Marie

• Department of Statistics and Operation Analysis Mendel University in Brno Zemědělská 1, 61300 Brno, Czech Republic

autor

Vintr Zdeněk

• Department of Combat and Special Vehicles University of Defence Kounicova str. 65, 662-10 Brno, Czech Republic

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa Nr 461252 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2020).