Adaptation of models from determined chaos theory to short-term power forecasts for wind farms

• Autorzy: Popławski T. , Szeląg P. , Bartnik R.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.24425/bpasts.2020.135400

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The paper proposes an adaptation of mathematical models derived from the theory of deterministic chaos to short-term power forecasts of wind turbines. The operation of wind power plants and the generated power depend mainly on the wind speed at a given location. It is a stochastic process dependent on many factors and very difficult to predict. Classical forecasting models are often unable to find the existing relationships between the factors influencing wind power output. Therefore, we decided to refer to fractal geometry. Two models based on self-similar processes (M-CO) and (M-COP) and the (M-HUR) model were built. The accuracy of these models was compared with other short-term forecasting models. The modified model of power curve adjusted to local conditions (M-PC) and Canonical Distribution of the Vector of Random Variables Model (CDVRM). Examples of applications confirm the valuable properties of the proposed approaches.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

chaos theory; fractals; prognostic models; short-term forecasts; time series

PL

teoria chaosu; fraktale; modele prognostyczne; prognozy krótkoterminowe; szereg czasowy

• Wydawca: Polska Akademia Nauk, Wydział IV Nauk Technicznych
• Czasopismo: Bulletin of the Polish Academy of Sciences. Technical Sciences
• Rocznik: 2020
• Tom: Vol. 68, nr 6
• Strony: 1491--1501
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 39 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Popławski T.

• Department of Electrical Engineering, Czestochowa University of Technology, Al. Armii Krajowej 17, 42-200 Czestochowa, Poland

autor

Szeląg P.

• Department of Electrical Engineering, Czestochowa University of Technology, Al. Armii Krajowej 17, 42-200 Czestochowa, Poland

autor

Bartnik R.

• Department of Power Management, Opole University of Technology, ul. Ozimska 75, 45-370 Opole, Poland

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa Nr 461252 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2021).