Quality comparative analyses of resilience capabilities regarding hybrid threats

Mitrovic, M.

doi:10.5604/01.3001.0012.7224

Powiadomienia systemowe

Sesja wygasła!
Sesja wygasła!

Artykuł - szczegóły

Tytuł artykułu

Quality comparative analyses of resilience capabilities regarding hybrid threats

Autorzy

Mitrovic M.

Wybrane pełne teksty z tego czasopisma

http://securityanddefence.pl

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.5604/01.3001.0012.7224

Warianty tytułu

Języki publikacji

Abstrakty

The contemporary security environment indicates non-conventional, asymmetric and hybrid security threats as potentially the most accurate threats to global and regional security. Conflict risks in the regional frame strongly depend on strategically aimed non-military, but hybrid acts. The great powers mostly attempt to achieve their own interests’ goals in fulfi llment of self-orientated strategic dominance. The Balkan region is a crossroads of strongly exposed interest spheres of regional as well as global powers. The article aims to determine areas of infl uence in the Balkan States that could become targets of predominantly non-military but hybrid infl uences. Multi-Value Quality Comparative Analyses (mvQCA) of state power, stability and resilience capacities were used in the research. The methodology used was based on the approach with multi-valued sets of variables and conditions. A theoretical framework was based on contemporary theories of state power and hybrid warfare concept. Used databases were brought together from generated open source databases of approved international academic or think-tank organisations. Based on a hypothesis regarding hybrid security threats, a theoretical framework of understanding of power and analysing a wide spectra of databases, the article aims to contribute a rational and objective understanding of two main indicators: the potential to become a target and the resilience capacities of countries in the face of hybrid security threats. Its findings indicate that most countries in the Balkan region are potentially under unarmed influences and have very low resilience capabilities against possible hybrid infl uences. The conclusions reached help to clarify that the Balkan States are vulnerable to hybrid security threats.

Słowa kluczowe

un-conventional security hybrid security threats Balkans Quality Comparative Analyses national resilience capacities

Wydawca

Akademia Sztuki Wojennej

Czasopismo

Security and Defence Quarterly

Rocznik

2018

Tom

Vol. 22, No. 5

Strony

20--45

Opis fizyczny

Bibliogr. 70 poz., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Mitrovic M.

mitrovicmm@gmail.com

Strategic Research Institute University of Defense, Republic of Serbia

Bibliografia

1. Alexander, M., 2008. Democratization and Hybrid Regimes: Comparative Evidencefrom Southeast Europe. East European Politics & Societies, 22 (4), 928–954. [online] Availablefrom:http://eep.sagepub.com/cgi/doi... 6 Feb 2018].
2. Aron, R., 2003. Peace & war: a theory of international relations. New Brunswick NewJersey: Transaction Publishers.
3. Attila Hoare, M., 2010. Bosnia-Hercegovina and International Justice: Past Failures and Future Solutions. East European Politics & Societies, 24 (2), 191–205. [online] Available from:http://eep.sagepub.com/cgi/doi... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
4. Avdagic, S., 2010. When Are Concerted Reforms Feasible? Explaining the Emergenceof Social Pacts in Western Europe. Comparative Political Studies, 43 (5), 628–657.[online] Available from: http://journals.sagepub.com/do... 25 Jan 2018].
5. Aymaliev, I. M., 2017. Corporate Motivations for Donating to the Police in Bulgaria. East European Politics and Societies. [online] Available from: http://journals.sagepub.com/do... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
6. Baldwin, D. A., 1979. Power analysis and world politics: New trends versus old tendencies. World politics, 31(2).
7. Baumgartner, M. and Thiem, A., 2017. Model Ambiguities in Configurational Comparative Research. Sociological Methods & Research, 46 (4), 954–987. [online] Available from:http://journals.sagepub.com/do... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
8. Beck, M., 2006. The Concept of Regional Power - The Middle East as a Devian Case. In German Institute of Global and Area Studies. Hamburg.
9. Bell, R. G., Filatotchev, I. and Aguilera, R. V., 2014. Corporate Governance and Investors’ Perceptions of Foreign IPO Value: An Institutional Perspective. Academy of Management Journal, 57(1), pp. 301–320. [online] Available from: http://journals. aom.org/doi/10.5465/amj.2011.0... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
10. Berlin, M. S., 2016. Why (not) arrest? Third-party state compliance and non compliance with international criminal tribunals. Journal of Human Rights, 15 (4), 509–532.[online] Available from: https://www.tandfonline.com/do...[Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
11. Bertelsmann, BTI - Bertelsmann Transformation Index. BTI - Bertelsmann Transformation Index. [online] Available from: https://www.bti-project.org/en... [Accessed 25Jan 2018].
12. Betz, J. and Taylor, I., 2007. The Rise of (new) regional powers in Asia, Africa, Latin America–contribution to regional and world peace or protracted conflicts. Workshopp resented at the European Consortium for Political Research Joint Sessions.
13. Binder, M., 2015. Paths to intervention: What explains the UN’s selective response tohumanitarian crises? Journal of Peace Research, 52 (6), 712–726. [online] Available from:http://journals.sagepub.com/do... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
14. Bretthauer, J. M., 2015. Conditions for Peace and Conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution,59(4), pp. 593–616. [online] Available from: http://journals.sagepub.com/do... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
15. Cebrowski, A. and Garstka, J., 1998. Network-centric warfare: Its origin and future. US Naval Institute Proceedings.
16. Center for Systemic Peace, MEPV - Major Episodes of Political Violence Effectiveness.[online] Available from: http://www.systemicpeace.org/i... [Accessed25 Jan 2018].
17. Chivvis, C.S., 2017. Understanding Russian “Hybrid Warfare” And What Can Be Done About it. RAND Cooperation, pp. 1–12. [online] Available from: http://www.rand. org/pubs/testimonies/CT468.html [Accessed 31 Jan 2018].
18. Christmann, A. and Danaci, D., 2012. Direct Democracy and Minority Rights: Direct and Indirect Effects on Religious Minorities in Switzerland. Politics and Religion, 5 (01), 133–160.
19. Cronquist, L. and Berg-Schlosser, D., 2009. Multi-Values QCA (mvQCA). In B. Rihouxand C. Ragin, (eds) Configurational Comparative Methods: Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) and Related Techniques. SAGE Publications, pp. 69–85.
20. Devers, K. J. et al., 2013. Using Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to Study Patient-Centered Medical Homes. [online] Available from: https://www.urban.org/sites/de... les/publication/24261/412969-Using-Qualitative-Comparative-Analysis-QCA-to-Study-Patient-Centered-Medical-Homes.PDF [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
21. Dimitrijevic, I. &Parausuc, A., 2017. Katalog baza pod ataka zaistraživanja u oblasti bezbednosti,Belgrade: Univerzitet u Beogradu – Fakultet bez bednosti Centarza primenje nubezbednost Fakulteta bezbednosti.
22. Dixon, M., Roscigno, V. and Hodson, R., 2004. Unions, Solidarity, and Striking. SOCIALFORCES, 83(1).
23. Ekiert, G., Kubik, J. and Vachudova, M. A., 2007. Democracy in the Post-Communist World: An Unending Quest? East European Politics & Societies, 21 (1), 7–30.[online] Available from: http://eep.sagepub.com/cgi/doi... 25 Jan 2018].
24. Eric Rosenbach and Aki J. Peritz, 2009. Covert Action. BelferCenter for Science andInternational Affairs. [online] Available from: https://www.belfercenter.org/p... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
25. Fischer, M., 2014. Coalition Structures and Policy Change in a Consensus Democracy. Policy Studies Journal, 42 (3), 344–366. [online] Available from: http://doi.wiley. com/10.1111/psj.12064 [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
26. Freedom House, COUCROS – Countries at the Crossroads. [online] Available from:https://freedomhouse.org/ [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
27. Freedom House, WRPF - Freedom of the Press Freedom House. [online] Available from:https://freedomhouse.org/repor... [Accessed 25 Jan2018].
28. Gavranov, V. and Stojkovič, M., 1972. Teroijskoshvatanje sile: sila u međunarodnimodnosima. Belgrade: Savremena Administracija.
29. Haesebrouck, T., 2017. NATO Burden Sharing in Libya. Journal of Conflict Resolution,61 (10), 2235–2261. [online] Available from: http://journals.sagepub.com/do... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
30. Hart, B.L., 1954. Strategy the indirect approach., London: Faber and Faber.
31. Joireman, S.F., 2016. External Conditionalities and Institutional Change. East European Politics and Societies, 30 (2), 315–331. [online] Available from: http://journals. sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/088832... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
32. Kofman, M. and McDermott, R., 2015. No Return to Cold War in Russia’s New Military Doctrine. Eurasia Review. [online] Available from: https://www.eurasiareview. com/03022015-no-return-cold-war-russias-new-military-doctrine-analysis/[Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
33. Komar, O. and Živković, S., 2016. Montenegro: A democracy without alternations. East European Politics and Societies, 30 (4), 785–804. [online] Available from: http://journals.sagepub.com/do... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
34. Korybko, A., 2016. Hybrid Wars: Breaking the Balkans. Global Research - Centre for Research on Globalization. [online] Available from: https://www.globalresearch.ca/... [Accessed 31 Jan 2018].
35. Korybko, A., 2015. Hybrid Wars: The Indirect Adaptive Approach To Regime Change, The People’s Friendship University of Russia. [online] Available from: http://newcoldwar.org/wp-conte... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
36. Kulski, W., 1968. International policies in a revolutionary age. 2nd rev. (ed.), New York: Lippincott.
37. Liang, Q. and Xiangsui, W., 1999. Unrestricted Warfare. Beijing: PLA Literature and Arts Publishing House Arts.
38. Lind, W.S. et al., 1989. Th e Changing Face of War: Into the Fourth Generation. Marine Corps Gazette, October, pp. 22–26.
39. Lončar, J., 2016. Electoral Accountability and Substantive Representation of National Minorities: Th e Case of Serbia. East European Politics and Societies, 30(4), pp. 703–724. [online] Available from: http://journals.sagepub.com/do... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
40. Mann, S., 1992. Chaos Theory and Strategic Thought., Ft. Belvoir: Defense Technical Information Center.
41. McCulloh, T. and Johnson, R., 2013. Hybrid warfare. JSOU Report 13-4. [online] Available from: http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citat....
42. Messner, J., 1960. Mutiny – the Name of the Third World War (Мятеж —имятретьейвсемирной) in: Е.Э. Месснер, Хочешьмира,победимятежевойну!,Mockвa 2005, pp 101-175.
43. Messner, J., 1971. Mutinywar (Мятежевойна) In Е.Э. Месснер, Хочешьмира,победимятежевойну!, Mockвa 2005, pp 392-476.
44. Mišović, S. and Kovač, M., 2006. Sistemiodbrane. Belgrade.
45. Mitrovic, M., 2017. Hybrid Security Threats and Contemporary Approach to National Security. Thematic Conference Proceedings of International Significance, International Conference ‘Archibald Reiss Days’, 1. [online] Available from: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/p... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
46. Nazemroaya, M. D., 2014. Iraq and Syria are Burning, “Constructive Chaos” and America’s Broader Strategy to Conquer Eurasia. Global Research.ca. [online] Available from:https://www.globalresearch.ca/... [Accessed 18 Feb 2018].
47. Nye, J. S., 2004. Soft power: The means to success in world politics. New York: Public Affairs.
48. Nye, J. S., 1990. Soft power. Foreign policy, Autumn.
49. Nye, J. S., 2011. The Future of Power. New York: Public Affairs.
50. Obradovic-Wochnik, J. and Wochnik, A., 2014. Invalid Ballots and the "Crisis of Representative Democracy: Re-inventing Protest at the 2012 Serbian Elections. East European Politics & Societies, 28 (4), 808–835.
51. Odak, S. and Benčić, A., 2016. Jasenovac—A Past That Does Not Pass: The Presence of Jasenovac in Croatian and Serbian Collective Memory of Conflict. East European Politics and Societies, 30 (4), 805–829.
52. Protsyk, O. and Sachariew, K., 2012. Recruitment and Representation of Ethnic Minoritie sunder Proportional Representation: Evidence from Bulgaria. East European Politics & Societies, 26(2), 313–339. [online] Available from: http://eep.sagepub.com/cgi/doi... [Accessed 6 Feb 2018].
53. Ragin, C., 2000. Fuzzy-set social science. University of Chicago Press.
54. Ragin, C., 2009. Qualitative Comparative Analyses Using Fuzzy Sets (fsQCA). In B. Rihouxand C. Ragin, (eds) Configurational Comparative Methods: Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) and Related Techniques. SAGE Publications, pp. 87–121. [online]Available from: http://methods.sagepub.com/boo... gurational-comparative-methods [Accessed 6 Feb 2018].
55. Ragin, C., 2009. Redesigning social inquiry: Fuzzy sets and beyond. University of ChicagoPress.
56. Ragin, C., Mayer, S. and KA, D., 1984. Assessing discrimination: A Boolean approach. American Sociological Review. [online] Available from: https://www.jstor.org/stable/2... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
57. Renz, B. and Smith, H., 2016. Russia and Hybrid warfare - going beyond the label. Aleksanteri Papers, 1.
58. Rihoux, B. and De Meur, G., 2009. Crisp-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (csQCA). In B. Rihoux and C. Ragin (eds) Configurational Comparative Methods: Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) and Related Techniques. SAGE Publications, pp. 33–68.[online] Available from: http://methods.sagepub.com/boo... gurational-comparative-methods [Accessed 6 Feb 2018].
59. Rihoux, B. and Ragin, C., 2009. Configurational Comparative Methods: Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) and Related Techniques. London: Sage.
60. Savin, L., 2011. Network centric strategies in the Arab spring. Open Revolt! [online]Available from: https://openrevolt.info/2011/1... 28 Jan 2018].
61. Shashkov, S., 2011. The theory of ‘manageable chaos’ put into practice. Strategic Culture Foundation. [online] Available from: https://www.strategic-culture. org/news/2011/03/01/the-theory-of-manageable-chaos-put-into-practice.html[Accessed 6 Feb 2018].
62. Slipchenko, V., 1999. Voinabudushchego (War of the Future). Moscow.
63. Spirova, M. and Stefanova, B., 2012. Th e European Dimension of Minority Political Representation: Bulgaria and Romania Compared. East European Politics & Societies,26 (1), 75–92. [online] Available from: http://eep.sagepub.com/cgi/doi... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
64. Subotic, J., 2010. Explaining Diffi cult States: The Problems of Europeanization in Serbia. East European Politics & Societies, 24 (4), 595–616. [online] Available from: http://eep.sagepub.com/cgi/doi... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
65. The Correlates of War Project, Correlates of War Project Website. [online] Available from:http://correlatesofwar.org/[Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
66. Transparency International, Corruption Perceptions Index. CPI - Corruption Perceptions Index. [online] Available from: http://cpi.transparency.org [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
67. Verweij, S. et al., 2013. What Makes Governance Networks Work? A Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis Of 14 Dutch Spatial Planning Projects. Public Administration,91(4), 1035–1055.
68. Vis, B., 2011. Under which conditions does spending on active labor market policie sincrease? Ans QCA analysis of 53 governments between 1985 and 2003. European Political Science Review, 3(02), 229–252.
69. Watson, J., Chapter 3: Attack by Stratagem. In Sun Tzu’s Art of War. [online] Availablefrom: http://suntzusaid.com/book/3 [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
70. Wright, R. A. and Boudet, H. S., 2012. To Act or Not to Act: Context, Capability, and Community Response to Environmental Risk. American Journal of Sociology, 118 (3),728–777.

Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu w ramach umowy 509/P-DUN/2018 ze środków MNiSW przeznaczonych na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (2019).

Typ dokumentu

Bibliografia

Identyfikator YADDA

bwmeta1.element.baztech-aac9da3b-f6ea-4d6c-a2fd-1885212dfe01