Effects of future climate on suitability of major crops in Eastern Kansas River Basin

• Autorzy: Sen Rintu , Sharda Vaishali , Zambreski Zachary T. , Onyekwelu Ikenna , Nelson Katherine S.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.24425/jwld.2024.151800

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Climate change significantly threatens food security and the agricultural economy, particularly under rainfed conditions. This study uses the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop simulation model to evaluate the future suitability of growing maize and soybean in the Eastern Kansas River Basin (EKSRB) under two projected climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) from 2006 to 2099. By comparing the baseline (1990-2019) and future climates, the yield gap percentage method is employed to quantify the discrepancy between actual and potential yields. This innovative approach integrates spatial soil variability and advanced climate projections from 18 global climate model (GCMs), enhancing the accuracy of crop suitability assessments. Results indicate yield losses ranging from 23% to 57% for maize and 20% to 36% for soybean, with maize experiencing a greater yield gap than soybean, highlighting soybean’s resilience under future climatic conditions. The study identifies critical regions within the EKSRB where adaptive strategies are most needed and provides insights for policymakers to develop targeted agricultural strategies, facilitate policy planning, and select mitigation strategies for vulnerable areas. This research underscores the necessity for adaptive agricultural practices to ensure food security and sustainability, offering a robust framework that can be adapted to similar regions globally.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

agriculture; climate change; Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer model; Representative Concentration Pathways; yield gap

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo ITP
• Czasopismo: Journal of Water and Land Development
• Rocznik: 2024
• Tom: no. 63
• Strony: 145--157
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 74 poz., mapy, rys., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Sen Rintu

• Kansas State University, College of Engineering, Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, 1016 Seaton Hall, 920 N. Martin Luther King Jr. Drive, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1249-252X

autor

Sharda Vaishali

• Kansas State University, College of Engineering, Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, 1016 Seaton Hall, 920 N. Martin Luther King Jr. Drive, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4048-0884

autor

Zambreski Zachary T.

• Kansas State University, College of Agriculture, Department of Agronomy, 2004 Throckmorton PSC, 1712 Claflin Rd, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA

autor

Onyekwelu Ikenna

• Kansas State University, College of Engineering, Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, 1016 Seaton Hall, 920 N. Martin Luther King Jr. Drive, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8037-3282

autor

Nelson Katherine S.

• Kansas State University, College of Arts and Sciences, Department of Geography and Geospatial Sciences, 1002 Seaton Hall, 920 N. Martin Luther King Jr. Drive, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4240-5474

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr POPUL/SP/0154/2024/02 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki II" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki (2025).