Wpływ czynników zewnętrznych na predykcję zużycia energii elektrycznej w budynku biurowym z panelami fotowoltaicznymi

• Autorzy: Kawa Kazimierz , Mularczyk Rafał , Bauer Waldemar , Kucharska Edyta

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.15199/48.2024.02.46

Warianty tytułu

EN

Impact of external factors on electricity consumption prediction in office building with photovoltaic supply

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

PL

Planowanie zużycia energii elektrycznej ze względu na pojawiające się niespodziewanie przerwy w dostawie staje istotnym aspektem zarządzania utrzymania budynków. Analiza szeregów czasowych pozwala na predykowanie zużycia energii elektrycznej w kolejnych latach na podstawie danych historycznych. Celem badania jest weryfikacja wpływu czynników zewnętrznych na predykcję ilości zużycia energii elektrycznej. W badaniach zostały wykorzystane metody analizy szeregów czasowych: model naiwny z sezonowością, regresji liniowej oraz Facebook Prophet. Wyniki pokazują, że zaproponowane modele w zadawalający sposób są w stanie prognozować zapotrzebowanie na energię.

EN

Planning for electricity consumption due to power outages occurring unexpectedly is becoming an important aspect of building maintenance management. Time series analysis makes it possible to predict electricity consumption in future years based on historical data. The purpose of the study is to verify the influence of external factors on the prediction of the amount of electricity consumption. The study used time series analysis methods: naive model with seasonality, linear regression and Facebook Prophet. The results show that the proposed models are able to predict energy demand satisfactorily.

Słowa kluczowe

PL

predykcja; zużycie energii; analiza szeregów czasowych; metoda predykcji danych

EN

prediction; energy consumption; time series analysis; methods of data predication

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo SIGMA-NOT
• Czasopismo: Przegląd Elektrotechniczny
• Rocznik: 2024
• Tom: R. 100, nr 2
• Strony: 221--226
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 28 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Kawa Kazimierz

• Akademia Górniczo-Hutnicza, Katedra Automatyki i Robotyki, Al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-150 Kraków
• Tauron Polska Energia S.A.

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4840-078

autor

Mularczyk Rafał

• Akademia Górniczo-Hutnicza, Katedra Automatyki i Robotyki, Al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-150 Kraków

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8485-0664

autor

Bauer Waldemar

• Akademia Górniczo-Hutnicza, Katedra Automatyki i Robotyki, Al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-150 Kraków

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8543-0995

autor

Kucharska Edyta

• Akademia Górniczo-Hutnicza, Katedra Automatyki i Robotyki, Al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-150 Kraków

Bibliografia

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr POPUL/SP/0154/2024/02 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki II" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2025).