Critical infrastructure preparedness : cascading of disruptions considering vulnerability and Dependency

• Autorzy: Eid M. , Hakkarainen T. , Terhi K. , Souza-Cursi-de E. , El-Hami A.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Critical Infrastructures’ disruptions may result in crises of unacceptable outcomes in modern societies. Thus, it is important to develop models that allow describing CIs’ disruptions and their propagation characteristics. CI disruptions depend on both the type of the threat and on the nature of the CIs’ mutual dependencies. A model describing the cascade of disruptions should, then, be able to consider the CI-threat vulnerability and the CI-CI dependency. The paper presents a model where cascades are exactly described using an integral equation. The integral equation admits an analytical solution if the occurrence probability distribution functions (pdf) of the disruptions obey Stochastic Poisson Processes (SPP). The introduction of the “vulnerability to the threat” and the “CIs’ (inter)dependencies” is carried out with the help of time constant factors called: “vulnerability strain factor” and “disruption strain factor”, respectively. An academic case is presented in order to demonstrate the applicability of the model and illustrate some interesting features of the model. A complete set of numerical applications will be published separately.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

CIP; cascade; disruption; vulnerability; dependency; model; simulation; stochastic; Poisson; probability

• Wydawca: Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
• Czasopismo: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
• Rocznik: 2016
• Tom: Vol. 7, No. 1
• Strony: 61--66
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 7 poz., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Eid M.

• CEA DANS/DM2S/SERMA, Saclay Bât.470, 91191 Gif sur Yvette Cedex, France

autor

Hakkarainen T.

• VTT, Technical Research Centre of Finland,P.O.Box 1000 02044 VTT Finland

autor

Terhi K.

• VTT, Technical Research Centre of Finland,P.O.Box 1000 02044 VTT Finland

autor

Souza-Cursi-de E.

• INSA-Rouen, 76801, Saint-Etienne du Rouvray Cedex, France

autor

El-Hami A.

• INSA-Rouen, 76801, Saint-Etienne du Rouvray Cedex, France

Bibliografia

• [1] Eid, M. (2011). A General Analytical Solution for the Occurrence Probability of a Sequence of Ordered Events following Poison Stochastic Processes. Journal of Reliability Theory & Applications, RT&A. ISSN 1932-2321. 03, 22, 2.
• [2] Eid, M. et al. (2015). A resilience model based on Stochastic Poison Process. 48th ESReDA Seminar.
• [3] Eid, M. et al. (2015). Critical Infrastructures Protection (CIP) – Coupled Modelling for Threats and Resilience. SSARS 2015, Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association, Summer Safety and Reliability Seminars 6, 2.
• [4] Fussell, J.B., Aber E.F. & Rahl, R.G. (1976). On the Quantitative Analysis of Priority-AND Failure Logic. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 25, 5.
• [5] Kohda, T. & Inoue, K. (2003). A simple method to evaluate system failure occurrence probability using minimal cut sets. Proceedings of ESRel”03, Safety and Reliability. Bedford & van Gelder (Ed.). Swets & Zeitlinger, Lisse. ISBN 90 5809 551 7. 923-926.
• [6] Long, W., Sato, Y. & Horigome, M. (2000). Quantification of sequential failure logic for fault tree analysis. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 67, 269-274.
• [7] Yuge, T. & Yanagi, S. (2008). Quantitative analysis of a fault tree with priority AND gates. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 93, 1577-1583.

Uwagi

Opracowanie ze środków MNiSW w ramach umowy 812/P-DUN/2016 na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (zadania 2017).