Random models of accidents at Baltic Port and sea water areas

• Autorzy: Grabski Franciszek
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The stochastic processes theory provides concepts and theorems that allow to build probabilistic models concerning incidents or (and) accidents in the Baltic Sea waters and ports. A crucial role in construction of the models plays a Poisson process and its extensions; especially a nonhomogeneous Poisson process and nonhomogeneous compound Poisson process. The nonhomogeneous Poisson process allows to build models of accidents number in the sea and seaports. The nonhomogeneous compound Poisson process creates the possibility of constructing models describing the consequences of dangerous events and marine accidents. Moreover some procedures of the model parameters identification are presented in the paper. Estimation of model parameters was made based on data from reports of HELCOM (2014) and Interreg project Baltic LINes (2016). The expected number of accidents often depends on changing randomly external conditions. Thus it can be assumed that the parameter γ is a random variable. In the paper is assumed that this random variable has a gamma distribution.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Nonhomogeneous Poisson; compound Poisson process; accidents in the Baltic Sea waters and ports

• Wydawca: Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
• Czasopismo: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
• Rocznik: 2019
• Tom: Vol. 10, No. 1
• Strony: 59--70
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 13 poz., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Grabski Franciszek

• Polish Naval Academy, Gdynia, Poland

Bibliografia

• [1] Di Crescenzo A., Martinucci B., Zacks S. (2015) Compound Poisson process with a Poisson subordinator. Journal of Applied Probability Vol. 52, No. 2, p. 360-37.
• [2] Fisz M. (1969) Probability and Mathematical Statistics., Warsaw PWN; (in Polish).
• [3] Grabski F. (2002) Semi-Markov models of reliability and operation. Warsaw : IBS (in Polish).
• [4] Grabski F. (2015) Semi-Markov Processes: Applications in Systems Reliability and Maintenance. Elsevier; Amsterdam, Boston, Heidelberg, London, New York, Oxford.
• [5] Grabski F. (2017) Nonhomogeneous Poisson process application to model of accidents number at Baltic waters and ports. Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association, volume 8, number 1, 39-46.
• [6] Grabski F. (2018) Nonhomogeneous compound Poisson process application to modelling of random processes related to accidents in the Baltic Sea waters and ports. Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association. Summer Safety and Reliability Seminars, Volume 9, Number 3, 21-29.
• [7] Herdzik J. (2016). Zdarzenia wypadkowe na morzu i ich głowne przyczyny (Accident events at sea and their main causes). Autobusy 10/16. p.33-38.
• [8] Limnios N, Oprisan G. (2001). Semi-Markov Processes and Reliability. Boston, Birkhauser.
• [9] Baltic LINes (2016): Shipping in the Baltic Sea – Past, present and future developments relevant for Maritime Spatial Planning. Project Report I. 35 pp.
• [10] HELCOM (2013), Annual report on shipping accidents in the Baltic Sea area during 2012. 43 pp.
• [11] HELCOM (2014), Annual report on shipping accidents in the Baltic Sea in 2013.
• [12] EMSA (2015). Annual Overview of Marine Casualties and Incidents 2014.
• [13] EMSA (European Maritime Safety Agency) (2017), ANNUAL overview of marine casualties and incidents 2016. 119 pp.

Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu w ramach umowy 509/P-DUN/2018 ze środków MNiSW przeznaczonych na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (2019).