Performance analysis of LSTM model with multi-step ahead strategies for a short-term traffic flow prediction

Doğan, Erdem

doi:10.20858/sjsutst.2021.111.2

Artykuł - szczegóły

Tytuł artykułu

Performance analysis of LSTM model with multi-step ahead strategies for a short-term traffic flow prediction

Autorzy

Doğan Erdem

Treść / Zawartość

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Dogan_performance_zn_transp_2021_111.pdf

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DOI

10.20858/sjsutst.2021.111.2

Warianty tytułu

Języki publikacji

Abstrakty

In this study, the effect of direct and recursive multi-step forecasting strategies on the short-term traffic flow forecast performance of the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model is investigated. To increase the reliability of the results, analyses are carried out with various traffic flow data sets. In addition, databases are clustered using the k-means++ algorithm to reduce the number of experiments. Analyses are performed for different time periods. Thus, the contribution of strategies to LSTM was examined in detail. The results of the recursive based strategy performances are not satisfactory. However, different versions of the direct strategy performed better at different time periods. This research makes an important contribution to clarifying the compatibility of LSTM and forecasting strategies. Thus, more efficient traffic flow prediction models will be developed and systems such as Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) will work more efficiently. A practical implication for researchers that forecasting strategies should be selected based on time periods.

Słowa kluczowe

traffic flow LSTM short-term prediction multi-step ahead strategies

przepływ ruchu LSTM prognozowanie krótkoterminowe strategie wieloetapowego wyprzedzania

Wydawca

Wydawnictwo Politechniki Śląskiej

Czasopismo

Zeszyty Naukowe. Transport / Politechnika Śląska

Rocznik

2021

Tom

z. 111

Strony

15--31

Opis fizyczny

Bibliogr. 51 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Doğan Erdem

edogan@kku.edu.tr

Department of Civil Engineering, Engineering Faculty, Kırıkkale University, Yahşihan,71451, Kırıkkale, Turkey

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7802-641X

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