Modelling Regional Sustainable Development in Ukrainian Crisis and War

• Autorzy: Shevchuk Olena , Ilyash Olha , Mazhara Glib , Roshchyna Nadiia , Hrynkevych Svitlana , Lavrov Ruslan , Kozlovskyi Serhii

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.35784/pe.2023.1.04

Warianty tytułu

PL

Modelowanie zrównoważonego rozwoju regionalnego podczas kryzysu i wojny w Ukrainie

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The article investigates the impact of force majeure crisis factors that appeared in the Ukrainian economy as a result of the global recession, the events of 2014-2021: annexation of Crimea, temporary occupation of part of the industrial territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, military operations in Donbas, during the fight against pandemic (COVID-19) and war in 2022 on the stable development of regions. Based on the analysis of official indicators of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, it was proved that the said factors create additional multiplier and acceleration effects that adversely affect the dynamics of the gross regional product in the crisis conditions. It has been determined that the result of these effects is the transformation of crisis signals from a proactive to an active phase. The construction of a heat map of GRP correlation indicators made it possible to determine the existence of a disbalance between the economic and social development of the regions. Building a model of linear regression, allowed us to draw conclusions about the existing disbalance of GRP regions during the crisis and war.

PL

Artykuł bada wpływ czynników kryzysowych o charakterze siły wyższej, które pojawiły się w ukraińskiej gospodarce w wyniku globalnej recesji, wydarzeń z lat 2014-2021: aneksja Krymu, tymczasowa okupacja części terenów przemysłowych obwodów donieckiego i ługańskiego, wojskowe operacje w Donbasie, walka z pandemią (COVID-19) i wojny w 2022 r. Na podstawie analizy oficjalnych wskaźników Państwowej Służby Statystyki Ukrainy wykazano, że czynniki te tworzą dodatkowy mnożnik efektów akceleracyjnych, które niekorzystnie wpływają na dynamikę produktu regionalnego brutto w warunkach kryzysowych. Stwierdzono, że skutkiem tych efektów jest przekształcenie sygnałów kryzysowych z fazy proaktywnej w aktywną. Konstrukcja wskaźników korelacji mapy cieplnej GRP pozwoliła na stwierdzenie istnienia dysproporcji między rozwojem gospodarczym i społecznym regionów. Zbudowanie modelu regresji liniowej pozwoliło na wyciągnięcie wniosków na temat istniejącej dysproporcji regionów GRP w okresie kryzysu i wojny.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

crisis factors; gross regional product; sustainable; war; economic development; multiplier effects; acceleration effect; transformation of crisis signals; heat correlation map

PL

czynniki kryzysowe; produkt regionalny brutto; zrównoważony; wojna; ozwój gospodarczy; efekt mnożnikowy; efekt akceleracji; transformacja sygnałów kryzysowych; mapa korelacji ciepła

• Wydawca: Lublin University of Technology
• Czasopismo: Problemy Ekorozwoju
• Rocznik: 2023
• Tom: Vol. 18, nr 1
• Strony: 37--50
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 44 poz., fig., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Shevchuk Olena

• National Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4117-1474

autor

Ilyash Olha

• National Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7882-3942

autor

Mazhara Glib

• National Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1860-756X

autor

Roshchyna Nadiia

• National Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2035-8846

autor

Hrynkevych Svitlana

• National University, Lviv Polytechnic, Lviv, Ukraine

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3563-3989

autor

Lavrov Ruslan

• PHEI European University, Kyiv, Ukraine

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9655-4467

autor

Kozlovskyi Serhii

• Vasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University, Vinnytsia, Ukraine

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0707-4996

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