Identification and prediction of maritime ferry operation process related to climate-weather change

• Autorzy: Kołowrocki K. , Kuligowska E. , Soszyńska-Budny J.
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The paper is concerned with an application of the critical infrastructure operation process related to climate-weather change model to identification and prediction of this process for maritime ferry. There are distinguished four different processes for the corresponding ferry operating area. Further, using identified parameters of the ferry operation process and the ferry operating area climate-weather change processes, there are determined the unknown parameters of those processes. Namely, there are determined the probabilities of the processes staying at the initial states, the probabilities of the transitions between the states and the mean values of the processes' conditional sojourn times at particular states. Finally, there are predicted the main characteristics of the ferry operation process related to climate-weather change processes at the distinguished operating area.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

operation process; identification; prediction; climate-weather change; maritime ferry

• Wydawca: Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
• Czasopismo: Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
• Rocznik: 2017
• Tom: Vol. 8, No. 2
• Strony: 135--144
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 9 poz., rys., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Kołowrocki K.

• Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, Poland

autor

Kuligowska E.

• Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, Poland

autor

Soszyńska-Budny J.

• Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, Poland

Bibliografia

• [1] EU-CIRCLE Report D3.3-GMU3-CIOP Model1. (2016). Critical Infrastructure Operation Process (CIOP) Model1.
• [2] EU-CIRCLE Report D6.4-GMU1. (2017). Critical Infrastructure Operation Process General Model (CIOPGM) Application to Maritime Ferry Operation Process Related to Operating Environment Threats (OET) and Extreme Weather Hazards (EWH).
• [3] Kołowrocki, K. (2014). Reliability of large and complex systems, Elsevier, ISBN: 978080999494.
• [4] Kołowrocki, K. & Soszyńska-Budny, J. (2017). Critical infrastructure operation process, Summer Safety & Reliability Seminars. Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association 8, 2, 1-6.
• [5] Kołowrocki, K. & Soszyńska-Budny, J. (2011). Reliability and Safety of Complex Technical Systems and Processes: Modeling-Identification- Prediction-Optimization. Springer, ISBN: 9780857296931.
• [6] Kołowrocki, K., Soszyńska-Budny, J. & Torbicki, M. (2017). Critical infrastructure operation process related to climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards, Summer Safety & Reliability Seminars. Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association 8, 2, 25-40.
• [7] Kołowrocki, K., Soszyńska-Budny, J. & Torbicki, M. (2017). Identification and prediction of climate-weather change process for maritime ferry operating area, Summer Safety & Reliability Seminars. Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association 8, 2.
• [8] Kołowrocki, K., Soszyńska-Budny, J. & Torbicki, M. (2017). Identification methods and procedures of climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards, Summer Safety & Reliability Seminars. Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association 8, 2, 85-95.
• [9] Kołowrocki, K., Soszyńska-Budny, J. & Torbicki, M. (2017). Integrated impact model on critical infrastructure safety related to climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards, Summer Safety & Reliability Seminars. Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association 8, 4, 21-32.