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Data analysis and processing for the system reliability neural network based on expert judgment

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EN
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EN
The article presents a data analysis and processing for tuning artificial neural network (ANN) of the anthrop technical system reliability, based on the opinions of experts. In general, the system reliability parameters are functions of operands – physical values – like time to failure, time between failures, duration times of specific reliability or operational states, number of failures in a time interval (event frequencies). These values are easier to be determined by an expert – operator with long year experience – than probabilistic model parameters. It is suggested that they be used in elicitation, for example linguistic estimates of the shares of reliability system elements in the system failure frequency. The numerical – linguistic elicitation of these opinions was carried out, which turned out to be uncorrelated and not suitable for tuning the network. Data processing method was used with the appropriate adopted analytic hierarchy process (AHP) geometric scale and matrix approximation method evaluations (logarithmic least squares method). Correlation analyses were performed for received input and output data of network and error of data processing method was determined. The results are shown in the example of elicitation and data correlation analyses for tuning the reliability neural network of the ship propulsion system.
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  • Gdynia Maritime University, Department of Engineering Sciences Morska Street 81-87, 81-225 Gdynia, Poland. tel.:+48 58 6901306
Bibliografia
  • [1] Brandowski, A., Estimation of the Probability of Propulsion Loss by a Seagoing Ship Based on Expert Opinions, Polish Maritime Research 1(59), Vol. 16, p. 73-77, 2009.
  • [2] Brandowski, A., Mielewczyk, A., Nguyen, H., Frackowiak, W., Certain propulsion risk prediction model of a seagoing ship, Proceedings of ESREL, Conference, 2010
  • [3] Brandowski, A., Mielewczyk, A., Nguyen, Mielewczyk W., A fuzzy – neuron model of the ship propulsion risk prediction, Journal of KONBiN, No 1(13), pp. 117-128, 2010.
  • [4] Cooke, R., M., Experts in Uncertainty, Oxford University Press, New York, Oxford 1991.
  • [5] Elliot, M., A., Selecting numerical scales for pairwise comparisons, Reliability Engineering and System Safety 95, pp. 750-763, 2010.
  • [6] Gniedienko, B. W., Bielajew, J., Sołowiew A. D., Mathematical methods in the reliability theory, Wydawnictwa Naukowo-Techniczne, Warszawa 1968.
  • [7] IMO – Resolution A.849(20), Code for the investigation of marine casualties and incidents, London 1997.
  • [8] Jaźwiński J., Smalko, Z., The use of expert method for estimation of the beta distribution parameters for evaluation of non-defectibility and safety of technical means of transport, Wyd. Instytutu Technologii Eksploatacji, Radom 2001.
  • [9] Kahneman, G., Slovic, P., Tversky, A., Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, Edited by: Cambridge University Press, 2001.
  • [10] Kwiesielewicz, M., Analytical hierarchical decision process, Non-fuzzy and fuzzy pairwise comparison, Instytut Badań systemowych, PAN, Warszawa 2002.
  • [11] Modarres, M., Kaminskiy, M., Krivtsov, Reliability Engineering and Risk Analysis, New York, Basel: Marcel Dekker Inc., 1999.
  • [12] Saaty, T. L. The analytic hierarchy process, McGraw Hill, NewYork 1980.
  • [13] Stanisz, A., Intelligible course of statistics, Vol. 1, StatSoft, Krakow 2006.
  • [14] Yucheng, Dong, Yinfeng, Xu, Hongyi, Li, Min, Dai, A comparative study of the numerical scales and the prioritization methods in AHP, European Journal of Operational Research 186, pp. 229-242, 2008.
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Bibliografia
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bwmeta1.element.baztech-9c080cab-d5da-4b54-8414-9aaf00aef10d
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