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Modelowanie konsekwencji wypadków morskiej infrastruktury krytycznej
Języki publikacji
Abstrakty
The probabilistic general model of critical infrastructure accident consequences including the superposition of three models of the process of initiating events, the process of environment threats and the process of environment degradation is adopted to the maritime transport critical infrastructure. The general model is applied to this critical infrastructure accident with chemical release consequences identification and prediction. The model also includes the cost analysis of losses associated with these chemical releases. Further, under the assumption of the stress of weather influence on the ship operation condition, critical infrastructure accident losses are examined and the results are compared with the previous ones. Finally, the method of optimization are practically tested to the minimizing these losses and the procedures and the new strategy assuring lower environment losses of the considered critical infrastructure accidents are proposed.
Probabilistyczny model konsekwencji wypadków infrastruktury krytycznej łączący trzy modele: procesu zdarzeń inicjujących, procesu zagrożeń środowiska oraz procesu degradacji środowiska został zaadaptowany do morskiej infrastruktury krytycznej. Model zastosowano do identyfikacji i prognozowania konsekwencji uwolnienia substancji chemicznych podczas wypadków morskiej infrastruktury krytycznej. Model zawiera także analizę kosztów wynikających z uwolnienia tych substancji. Dodatkowa analiza strat uwzględnia wpływ warunków pogodowych na stan eksploatacyjny statku, który uległ wypadkowi. Ponadto przetestowano metodę optymalizacji w celu zmniejszenia tych strat oraz przedstawiono procedury i nowe rozwiązania zapewniające mniejsze straty w środowisku, wynikające z wypadków omawianej infrastruktury krytycznej.
Czasopismo
Rocznik
Tom
Strony
477--495
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 17 poz.
Twórcy
autor
- Gdynia Maritime University (Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni)
Bibliografia
- 1. Bogalecka M., Kołowrocki K.: Chemical Spill Due to Extreme Sea Surges Critical Infrastructure Chemical Accident (Spill) Consequences Related to Climate-Weather Change. Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association, Summer Safety and Reliability Seminars, 9(2), 2018.
- 2. Bogalecka M., Kołowrocki K.: Integrated Model of Critical Infrastructure Accident Consequences. Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association, Summer Safety and Reliability Seminars, 8(3), 2017.
- 3. Bogalecka M., Kołowrocki K.: Modelling critical infrastructure accident consequences – an overall approach. Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association, Summer Safety and Reliability Seminars, 7(1), 2016.
- 4. Bogalecka M., Kołowrocki K.: Optimization of critical infrastructure accident consequences related to climate-weather change process influence – losses minimizing. Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association, Summer Safety and Reliability Seminars, 9(1), 2018.
- 5. Bogalecka M., Kołowrocki K.: Prediction of critical infrastructure accident losses of chemical releases impacted by climate-weather change. In: Proceedings of 2018 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management (IEEM), 2018.
- 6. GMU Safety Interactive Platform. http://gmu.safety.umg.edu.pl. Accessed 05 Apr 2019.
- 7. Grabski F.: Semi-Markov processes: applications in system reliability and maintenance. Amsterdam, Boston, Heidelberd, London, New York, Oxford, Paris, San Diego, San Francisco, Sidney, Tokyo: Elsevier, 2015.
- 8. HELCOM. Manual on co-operation in response to marine pollution within the framework of the convention on the protection of the marine environment of the Baltic Sea area (Helsinki Convention), vol. 2. Helsinki: Helsinki Commision, 2002.
- 9. IMO. International convention on oil pollution preparedness, response and co-operation 1990 with protocol on preparedness, response and co-operation to pollution incidents by hazardous and noxious substances 2000. London: IMO Publishing, 2002.
- 10. Klabjan D., Adelman D.: Existence of optimal policies for semi-Markov decision processes using duality for infinite linear programming. SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization, 44(6), 2006.
- 11. Kołowrocki K., Soszyńska-Budny J. Reliability and safety of complex technical systems and processes: modeling – identification – prediction – optimization. London, Dordrecht, Heildeberg, New York: Springer; 2011.
- 12. Kołowrocki K, Soszyńska-Budny J, Torbicki M. Critical infrastructure operating area climate-weather change process including extreme weather hazards. Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association, Summer Safety and Reliability Seminars, 8(2), 2017.
- 13. Kristiansen S.: Maritime transportation: safety management and risk analysis. Amsterdam, Boston, Heidelberd, London, New York, Oxford, Paris, San Diego, San Francisco, Singapore, Sidney, Tokyo: Elsevier, 2005.
- 14. Kuligowska E.: Identification and prediction of climate-weather change process for maritime ferry operating area. Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association, Summer Safety and Reliability Seminars, 8(2), 2017.
- 15. Limnios N., Oprisan G.: Semi-Markov processes and reliability. Boston: Birkhäuser; 2001.
- 16. Mamaca E., Girin M., le Floch S., el Zir R.: Review of chemical spills at sea and lessons learnt. In: Interspill conference & exhibition 2009; Marseille: 12-14 May 2009.
- 17. Vercellis S.: Data mining and optimization for decision making. John Wiley & Sons Ltd; 2009.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
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