Business cycle in residential construction in Poland 2007-2022

• Autorzy: Bryx Marek , Sobieraj Janusz

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.24425/ace.2024.151883

Warianty tytułu

PL

Cykl koniunkturalny w budownictwie mieszkaniowym w Polsce w latach 2007-2022

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This article explores the dynamic interplay between the business cycle and the housing market in Poland from 2007 to 2022. It examines the complex relationship between economic cycles and the residential property sector, focusing on the impact of government intervention and market fluctuations. The research shows that the housing market is highly sensitive to external factors. It highlights the central role of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) in shaping the housing market through changes in interest rates and credit availability. The COVID-19 pandemic temporarily disrupted developer activity and housing demand, highlighting the vulnerability of the market to unexpected shocks. In addition to observations, this study calls for a critical analysis of housing policies, identifying potential shortcomings and offering recommendations for improvement. It underlines that economic crises are an inherent part of housing market cycles, promoting market cleansing and healthy competition. Finally, this research emphasises that the housing market is intertwined with broader economic trends. It highlights the need for central banks to strike a balance between managing inflation and supporting economic growth. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of the relationship between the housing market and the business cycle, providing valuable insights for policymaking and investment decisions.

PL

W artykule zbadano dynamiczną interakcję między cyklem koniunkturalnym a rynkiem mieszkaniowym w Polsce w latach 2007-2022. Analiza obejmuje złożony związek między cyklami gospodarczymi a sektorem nieruchomości mieszkaniowych, koncentrując się na wpływie interwencji rządowych i wahań rynkowych. Badanie pokazuje, że rynek mieszkaniowy jest bardzo wrażliwy na czynniki zewnętrzne. Podkreśla centralną rolę Narodowego Banku Polskiego (NBP) w kształtowaniu rynku mieszkaniowego poprzez zmiany stóp procentowych i dostępności kredytów. Pandemia COVID-19 tymczasowo zakłóciła działalność deweloperską i popyt mieszkaniowy, podkreślając wrażliwość rynku na nieoczekiwane wstrząsy. Poza obserwacjami, niniejsze badanie apeluje o krytyczną analizę polityki mieszkaniowej, identyfikując potencjalne niedociągnięcia i oferując zalecenia dotyczące poprawy. Podkreśla, że kryzysy gospodarcze są nieodłączną częścią cykli na rynku mieszkaniowym, promując oczyszczanie rynku i zdrową konkurencję. Wreszcie, w badaniu podkreślono, że rynek mieszkaniowy jest powiązany z szerszymi trendami gospodarczymi. Podkreśla ono potrzebę znalezienia przez banki centralne równowagi pomiędzy zarządzaniem inflacją a wspieraniem wzrostu gospodarczego. Badanie to pomaga lepiej zrozumieć związek między rynkiem mieszkaniowym a cyklem koniunkturalnym, dostarczając cennych informacji na potrzeby kształtowania polityki i podejmowania decyzji inwestycyjnych. Cykl koniunkturalny (koniunktura i dekoniunktura) ma decydujący wpływ na rozwój rynku nieruchomości i ceny zawieranych transakcji pomiędzy deweloperami, a nabywcami mieszkań.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

boom; business cycle; housing; housing market

PL

koniunktura; cykl; mieszkanie; rynek mieszkaniowy

• Wydawca: Komitet Inżynierii Lądowej i Wodnej PAN ; Politechnika Warszawska, Wydział Inżynierii Lądowej
• Czasopismo: Archives of Civil Engineering
• Rocznik: 2024
• Tom: Vol. 70, nr 4
• Strony: 113--134
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 54 poz., il., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Bryx Marek

• Warsaw School of Economics, Department of Innovative City, Warsaw, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0768-4786

autor

Sobieraj Janusz

• Warsaw University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Warsaw, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0819-7384

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