Iran : analiza możliwości wybuchu konfliktu zbrojnego przez pryzmat teorii stosunków międzynarodowych

• Autorzy: Marcinów S.
• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

PL

Główną tezą artykułu jest to, że konflikt zbrojny z Iranem jest wysoce prawdopodobny, a działania militarne na mniejszą skalę, jak naloty bombowe lub ataki cybernetyczne są praktycznie nieuniknione. Jest to spowodowane strachem, który jest głęboko zakorzeniony w trudnej historii Iranu, oraz brakiem zaufania do organizacji międzynarodowych. Analizie poddano tło historyczne, od zdobycia władzy przez Reza Szah Pahlawiego w 1925 roku do czasów współczesnych, oraz cztery teorie o stosunkach międzynarodowych: ofensywny i defensywny realizm, neoliberalny instytucjonalizm i konstruktywizm. Każda z teorii pomaga w zrozumieniu zachowania poszczególnych państw i jest związana z możliwym rozwiązaniem dyplomatycznego konfliktu nad programem nuklearnym państwa perskiego oraz wspieraniem organizacji terrorystycznych przez Teheran. Artykuł ukazuje logikę każdego z możliwych rozwiązań oraz ich mocne i słabe strony.

EN

This essay argues that an armed conflict in Iran is highly probable and smaller military actions like air strikes or cyber attacks are practically inevitable. It is due to Iran’s fear rooted in a complicated history and its distrust towards international organizations. This analysis is based on historical background, from the rise to power by Reza Shah Pahlavi in 1925 to modern Iran, and four international relations theories: offensive and defensive realism, neoliberal institutionalism, and constructivism. Each theory helps to explain actors’ behavior and is associated with a possible solution to the diplomatic conflict over Iran’s nuclear program and its support for terrorist organizations. This essay shows the reasoning behind each of the solutions, as well as their strengths and weaknesses.

Słowa kluczowe

PL

teorie stosunków międzynarodowych; Iran; Stany Zjednoczone; układ o nierozprzestrzenianiu broni jądrowej; NPT; bomba atomowa; broń nuklearna; program nuklearny; sankcje

EN

theories of International Relations; Iran; United States; Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty; NPT; atomic bomb; nuclear weapon; nuclear program; sanctions

• Wydawca: Towarzystwo Wiedzy Obronnej
• Czasopismo: Wiedza Obronna
• Rocznik: 2017
• Tom: nr 1-2
• Strony: 73--96
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 49 poz., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Marcinów S.

• Doktorant w Wydziale Bezpieczeństwa Narodowego Akademii Sztuki Wojennej.

Bibliografia

• 1. Farrokh K., Iran at War, Oxford: Osprey Publishing, 2011.
• 2. Hiro D., The Iranian Labyrinth, New York: Nation Books, 2005.
• 3. Hopf T., The Promise of Constructivism in International Relations Theory, „Selected Readings in International Relations”, red. M.J. Sheiffer, 225–38. Boston: Pearson Custom Publishing, 2008.
• 4. Mearsheimer J.J., The False Promise of International Institutions, „Selected Readings inInternational Relations”, red. M.J. Sheiffer, 327–56. Boston: Pearson Custom Publishing, 2008.
• 5. Mearsheimer J.J., The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2003.
• 6. Polk W.R., Understanding Iran, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2009.
• 7. Ray J., Opinion Briefing: Iranians’ Outlook for U.S. Relations, Gallup, 28 luty 2012, http://www.gallup.com/poll/153002/Opinion-Briefing-Iranians-Outlook-Relations.aspx
• 8. Waltz K., Why Iran Should Get the Bomb, „Foreign Affairs”, lipiec 2012, 2–5.
• Strony internetowe
• 1. Abrams E., The Iran deal a year after: There are no benefits, „Jerusalem Post”, 5 lipiec 2016, http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/The-Iran-deal-a-year-after-There-are-no-benefits-459590
• 2. Al Jazeera, GCC states slam Iran interference in region, 26 grudzień 2012, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/12/20121225233041666942.html
• 3. Al Jazeera, Poll results prompt Iran protests, 14 czerwca 2009, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2009/06/2009613172130303995.html
• 4. Al Kaabi, Yousef H., Khaled M., Al Kaabi, The Iranian Century: The Tension Between Iran and the Gulf States, Naval Postgraduate School, DTIC, grudzień 2011, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA555928&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf
• 5. Atlantic Council, „U.S.-Iranian Relations: An Analytic Compendium of U.S. Policies, Laws, and Regulations”, luty 2011, http://www.acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/403/Feb11_ACUS_IranCompendium.pdf
• 6. BBC News, Q&A: Iran sanctions, 16 październik 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ world-middle-east-15983302
• 7. Blair D., Britain, US and France send warships through Strait of Hormuz, „The Telegraph”, 23 styczeń 2012, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/9031392/Britain-US-and-France-send-warships-through-Strait-of-Hormuz.html
• 8. Bruno G., Jayshree B., Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Council on Foreign Relations, 12 październik 2011, http://www.cfr.org/iran/irans-revolutionary-guards/p14324
• 9. Bruno G., Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program, Council on Foreign Relations, 23 lipiec 2012, http://www.cfr.org/iran/irans-ballistic-missile-program/p20425
• 10. Bruno G., Iran’s Nuclear Program, Council on Foreign Relations, 10 marzec 2010, http://www.cfr.org/iran/irans-nuclear-program/p16811
• 11. CIA – The World Factbook. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ir.html
• 12. Cole J., Iran and Islam, United States Institute of Peace, http://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/iran-and-islam
• 13. Cordesman A.H., Burke A.A., Seitz A.C., Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction, Center for Strategic & International Studies, 14 październik 2008, http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/081015_iran.wmd.pdf
• 14. Council on Foreign Relations, Crisis Guide: Iran – Timeline, http://www.cfr.org/interactives/CG_Iran/index.html#/timeline/
• 15. Council on Foreign Relations, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran’s Nuclear Program, 14 lipca 2015, http://www.cfr.org/iran/joint-comprehensive-plan-action-iransnuclear-program/p36776
• 16. Council on Foreign Relations, Joint Declaration by Iran, Turkey and Brazil on Nuclear Fuel, May 2010, 17 maj 2010, http://www.cfr.org/brazil/joint-declaration-iran-turkeybrazil-nuclear-fuel-may-2010/p22140
• 17. Council on Foreign Relations, Crisis Guide: Iran – The Iranian Regime: The Regime Structure, http://www.cfr.org/interactives/CG_Iran/index.html#/the-iranian-regime/
• 18. Crooke A., Secretary Clinton’s cold shoulder on the Iranian fuel-swap deal, „Foreign Policy”, 26 maj 2010, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/05/26/secretary_clintons_cold_shoulder_on_the_iranian_fuel_swap_deal
• 19. Federation of American Scientists, Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons [NPT], http://www.fas.org/nuke/control/npt/
• 20. Gladstone R., Iran Currency Falls Further on Concerns Over Bank, „The New York Times”, 22 styczeń 2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/23/world/middleeast/irancurrency-falls-further-on-concerns-over-bank.html
• 21. Gordon P., Will the Nuclear Deal Transform Iran?, „The American Interest”, May 3 2016, https://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/05/03/will-the-nuclear-deal-transform-iran/
• 22. Greenberg J., Warrick J., U.S. officials concerned by Israel statements on Iran threat, possible strike, „Washington Post”, 2 luty 2012, http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-02-02/world/35443629_1_israeli-strike-nuclear-program-officials-and-nuclear-experts
• 23. Iran: Inflation Soars, Officials Say, „The New York Times”, 9 styczeń 2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/10/world/middleeast/iran-inflation-soars-officials-say.html
• 24. Johnson T., Bruno G., The Lengthening List of Iran Sanctions, Council on Foreign Relations, 31 lipiec 2012, http://www.cfr.org/iran/lengthening-list-iran-sanctions/p20258
• 25. Katzman K., Iran: U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses, Congressional Research Service,5 wrzesień 2012, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL32048.pdf
• 26. Komisja Europejska, Iran: EU Bilateral Trade and Trade with the World, 29 listopad 2012, http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2006/september/tradoc_113392.pdf
• 27. MAEA, Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran, 30 sierpień 2012, http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2012/gov2012-37.pdf
• 28. Międzynarodowy Fundusz Walutowy, Iran: Country At A Glance, http://elibrary-data.imf.org/FindDataReports.aspx?d=33060&e=161920
• 29. Milani M.M., Tehran’s Take, „Foreign Affairs”, lipiec 2009, http://www.foreignaffairs. com/articles/65123/mohsen-m-milani/tehrans-take
• 30. Nichols M., Charbonneau L., «U.N. chief says sanctions on Iran affecting its people»,Reuters, 5 październik 2012, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/05/us-iran-sanctions-un-idUSBRE89412Z20121005
• 31. Obama B., Remarks by the President in State of the Union Address, White House, 24 styczeń 2012, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/01/24/remarks-presidentstate-union-address
• 32. Reuters, Israel asks U.S. for arms that could aid Iran strike, 8 marca 2012, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/08/us-iran-nuclear-israel-usa-idUSBRE82717220120308ium-stockpile/
• 33. Siegel N., As the US Pivots toward Asia, Europe Stumbles, „The European”, 18 listopad 2011, http://theeuropean-magazine.com/345-siegel-nicholas/434-a-shift-in-us-foreignpolicy
• 34. Takeyh R., Trump Can Make Iran Policy Great Again, „Foreign Policy”, 11 listopad 2016, http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/11/trump-will-make-iran-policy-great-again/
• 35. Thielmann G., Iran’s 20% Enriched Uranium Stockpile, Arms Control Association, 17 wrzesień 2012, http://armscontrolnow.org/2012/09/17/irans-20-enriched-uraniumstockpile/36. Trading Economics, Iran GDP, http://www.tradingeconomics.com/iran/gdp
• 37. United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 2011, 2 listopad2011, http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/
• 38. United States Institute of Peace, Part I: Khamenei on Nuclear Weapons, 31 sierpień 2012, http://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2012/aug/31/part-i-khamenei-nuclear-weapons
• 39. Wright R., The Media’s ‘Iran Is a Wild and Crazy State’ Frame, „The Atlantic”, 17 luty 2012, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/02/the-medias-iran-is-awild-and-crazy-state-frame/253249/
• 40. Younglai R., Gardner T., Iran’s trade partners act to avoid U.S. sanctions, Reuters, 22 kwiecień 2012. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/22/us-usa-iran-idUSBRE83L06Y20120422
• 41. Zetter K., Iran: Computer Malware Sabotaged Uranium Centrifuges, „Wired”, 29 listopad 2010, http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2010/11/stuxnet-sabotage-centrifuges/

Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa Nr 461252 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2020).