The housing market in Poland during the Covid-19 pandemic

• Autorzy: Bryx Marek , Rudzka Izabela , Sobieraj Janusz

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.24425/ace.2023.147666

Warianty tytułu

PL

Rynek mieszkaniowy w Polsce w okresie pandemii Covid-19

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This article examines the impact of economic factors, such as changes in interest rates and inflation, on the primary housing market in Poland from January 2019 to September 2022, with particular focus on the Covid-19 pandemic. The research problem is to understand how these economic factors have affected the housing market, and the research objective is to analyze the activity of developers, building permits issued, investments started, and housing loans granted. The research methodology involves the analysis of data from various sources, including official statistics and reports from developers and investment funds. The research findings suggest that the decreased demand for housing loans has led to a significant decline in the allocation of new housing. However, the emergence of new major players, such as leading European and global investment funds, could provide opportunities for developers. The study concludes that caution is warranted in starting new construction activity and that the best performance in housing production in the transition period to 2021 is unlikely to be exceeded in the current or subsequent years. The implications of this study are that developers need to consider economic factors and market trends when making decisions about new construction and that investment funds may play an increasingly important role in the housing market.

PL

W artykule przeanalizowano wpływ czynników ekonomicznych, takich jak zmiany stóp procentowych i inflacji, na pierwotny rynek mieszkaniowy w Polsce od stycznia 2019 r. do września 2022 r., ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem pandemii Covid-19. Problemem badawczym jest zrozumienie, jak te czynniki ekonomiczne wpłynęły na rynek mieszkaniowy, a celem badawczym jest analiza aktywności deweloperów, wydanych pozwoleń na budowę, rozpoczętych inwestycji oraz udzielonych kredytów mieszkaniowych. Metodologia badania obejmuje analizę danych z różnych źródeł, w tym oficjalnych statystyk oraz raportów od deweloperów i funduszy inwestycyjnych. Wyniki badań sugerują, że zmniejszony popyt na kredyty mieszkaniowe doprowadził do znacznego ograniczenia liczby nowych inwestycji mieszkaniowych, ale pojawienie się nowych dużych graczy, takich jak wiodące europejskie i globalne fundusze inwestycyjne, może stanowić szansę dla deweloperów. Z badania wynika, że ostrożność w rozpoczynaniu nowych budów jest uzasadniona, a najlepsze wyniki produkcji mieszkaniowej w okresie przejściowym 2021 r. prawdopodobnie nie zostaną pobite w bieżącym lub kolejnych latach. Implikacje tego badania są takie, że deweloperzy muszą być świadomi czynników ekonomicznych i trendów rynkowych przy podejmowaniu decyzji o nowym budownictwie, a fundusze inwestycyjne mogą odgrywać coraz większą rolę na rynku mieszkaniowym.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

housing market; Covid-19; interest rate; investment housing; rental housing

PL

rynek mieszkaniowy; Covid-19; stopa procentowa; mieszkanie inwestycyjne; mieszkanie na wynajem

• Wydawca: Komitet Inżynierii Lądowej i Wodnej PAN ; Politechnika Warszawska, Wydział Inżynierii Lądowej
• Czasopismo: Archives of Civil Engineering
• Rocznik: 2023
• Tom: Vol. 69, nr 4
• Strony: 393--411
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 58 poz., il., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Bryx Marek

• Warsaw School of Economics, Department of Innovative City, Warsaw, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0768-4786

autor

Rudzka Izabela

• Warsaw School of Economics, Institute of Enterprise and Investment Finance, Warsaw, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2245-8875

autor

Sobieraj Janusz

• Warsaw University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Warsaw, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0819-7384

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2024).