What can we learn from the projections of changes of flow patterns? Results from Polish case studies

• Autorzy: Piniewski M. , Meresa H. K. , Romanowicz R. , Osuch M , Szcześniak M. , Kardel I. , Okruszko T. , Mezghani A. , Kundzewicz Z. W.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1007/s11600-017-0061-6

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

River flow projections for two future time horizons and RCP 8.5 scenario, generated by two projects (CHASE-PL and CHIHE) in the Polish-Norwegian Research Programme, were compared. The projects employed different hydrological models over different spatial domains. The semi-distributed, process-based, SWAT model was used in the CHASE-PL project for the entire Vistula and Odra basins area, whilst the lumped, conceptual, HBV model was used in the CHIHE project for eight Polish catchments, for which the comparison study was made. Climate projections in both studies originated from the common EURO-CORDEX dataset, but they were different, e.g. due to different bias correction approaches. Increases in mean annual and seasonal flows were projected in both studies, yet the magnitudes of changes were largely different, in particular for the lowland catchments in the far future. The HBV-based increases were significantly higher in the latter case than the SWAT-based increases in all seasons except winter. Uncertainty in projections is high and creates a problem for practitioners.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

river flow; climate change; SWAT; EURO-CORDEX; HBV

PL

przepływ rzeki; zmiana klimatu; SWAT; EURO-CORDEX

• Wydawca: Instytut Geofizyki PAN ; Springer
• Czasopismo: Acta Geophysica
• Rocznik: 2017
• Tom: Vol. 65, no. 4
• Strony: 809--827
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 45 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Piniewski M.

• Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Warsaw University of Life SciencesSGGW, Warsaw, Poland
• Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

autor

Meresa H. K.

• Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland

autor

Romanowicz R.

• Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland

autor

Osuch M

• Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland

autor

Szcześniak M.

• Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Warsaw University of Life SciencesSGGW, Warsaw, Poland

autor

Kardel I.

• Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Warsaw University of Life SciencesSGGW, Warsaw, Poland

autor

Okruszko T.

• Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Warsaw University of Life SciencesSGGW, Warsaw, Poland

autor

Mezghani A.

• Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway

autor

Kundzewicz Z. W.

• Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
• Institute for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poznań, Poland

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