Ocena użyteczności metody jakościowej szacowania popytu na przewozy ładunków żeglugą śródlądową na zapleczu portów morskich

• Autorzy: Filina-Dawidowicz Ludmiła , Kotowska Izabela , Mańkowska Marta , Pluciński Michał

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.4467/2543859XPKG.20.013.12115

Warianty tytułu

EN

Usability evaluation of the qualitative method of estimating the demand for inland shipping serving the seaport hinterland

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

PL

Znane metody prognozowania zapotrzebowania na transport towarów oparte są na danych szeregów czasowych, które nie zawsze są dostępne. Celem artykułu jest ocena użyteczności metody jakościowej szacowania popytu na przewozy ładunków żeglugą śródlądową na zapleczu portów morskich w przypadku niedostępności danych historycznych. Oceniana metoda obejmuje pięć etapów i opiera się na badaniu popytu, które przeprowadzono wśród gestorów ładunków. Weryfikację przeprowadzono na przykładzie Odrzańskiej Drogi Wodnej, analizując potencjalne operacje wykonywane w ramach żeglugi śródlądowej do/z portów morskich w Szczecinie i Świnoujściu, przy założeniu, że droga wodna została zmodernizowana do klasy żeglowności III. Uzyskane wyniki badań pozwoliły określić zalety i wady prognozowania opartego na badanej metodzie jakościowej, wskazując na jej użyteczność, i mogą być przydatne dla zarządów portów morskich, spedytorów, firm transportowych i instytucji rządowych podejmujących decyzje w zakresie rozwoju infrastruktury śródlądowych dróg wodnych.

EN

Known methods of forecasting the demand for goods transport are based on given time series, which are not always available. The article aims to assess the usefulness of the qualitative method of estimating the demand for cargo transport by inland waterways in seaports hinterland when historical data are unavailable. The assessed method consists of five stages and is based on a demand survey, which was carried out among cargo senders. The verification performed on the Oder Waterway example, analysing potential operations performed in inland shipping to/from seaports in Szczecin and Świnoujście, on the assumption that the Waterway has been modernized to navigability class III. Obtained research results allowed to determine the strengths and weaknesses of predicting using analysed qualitative method pointing to its usability and can be useful for seaports authorities, forwarders, transport companies and government institutions making decisions regarding the development of inland waterway infrastructure.

Słowa kluczowe

PL

żegluga śródlądowa; metoda jakościowa; port morski; prognozowanie popytu; transport ładunków

EN

inland shipping; qualitative method; seaport; demand forecasting; cargo transport

• Wydawca: Komisja Geografii Komunikacji Polskiego Towarzystwa Geograficznego ; Uniwersytet Gdański. Katedra Geografii Rozwoju Regionalnego
• Czasopismo: Prace Komisji Geografii Komunikacji PTG
• Rocznik: 2020
• Tom: nr 23(1)
• Strony: 76--86
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 46 poz., rys., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Filina-Dawidowicz Ludmiła

• Wydział Techniki Morskiej i Transportu, Zachodniopomorski Uniwersytet Technologiczny w Szczecinie, Al. Piastów 41, 71-065 Szczecin

autor

Kotowska Izabela

• Wydział Inżynieryjno-Ekonomiczny Transportu, Akademia Morska w Szczecinie, Henryka Pobożnego 11, 70-507 Szczecin

autor

Mańkowska Marta

• Instytut Zarządzania, Uniwersytet Szczeciński, Al. Papieża Jana Pawła II 22A, 70-453 Szczecin

autor

Pluciński Michał

• Instytut Zarządzania, Uniwersytet Szczeciński, Al. Papieża Jana Pawła II 22A, 70-453 Szczecin

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Uwagi

PL

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa Nr 461252 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2020).