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Asymmetry Relationship between Economic Growth and Unemployment Rates in the Arab countries: Application of the OKUN Law during 1960-2017

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Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
A well-known macroeconomic relationship is called the OKUN Law, which states that the negative correlation between unemployment rates and raw domestic output can be determined. This study will focus on the theoretical framework for developing models of the elationship between economic growth and unemployment rates. This study contributes to the existing literature by estimate Okun’s law for Arab economies during the period 1960–2017. The results of this study indicate that Okun’s coefficient is valid for the case of Arab countries in the different version, when unemployment rates reach the threshold and are between 6.35 and 7.933, in which the impact of the GDP on unemployment rates is negative and significant, with a significant level of 1 per cent. As for outside the threshold, i.e. less than 6.35 and more significant than 7.933, this effect is negative, but it is not significant. Moreover, the decision-makers in Arab countries seek to raise economic growth rates to address unemployment. This investigation provides original empirical evidence on the association between unemployment and economic growth within Arab countries. The current international literature lacks empirical evidence on the relationship between variables of this study for Arab countries as a whole.
Czasopismo
Rocznik
Strony
1--22
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 42 poz., tab., wykr.
Twórcy
autor
  • College of Business Administration, Northern Border University, Arar, Saudi Arabia
  • Faculty of Economic, Commercial and Management Sciences, University of M’Hamed BOUGARA Boumerdes, Algeria
  • Univ. Carthage, Institut des Hautes Etudes Commerciales de Carthage (IHEC), Tunisia and Univ. Tunis
  • El Manar, Faculté des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion de Tunis (FSEGT), Prospective, Stratégies et Développement Durable Laboratory (PS2D), Tunisia
Bibliografia
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  • [2] Adanu, K. (2005). A cross-province comparison of Okun’s coefficient for Canada. Applied Economics, 37(5), 561-570. https://doi.org/10.1080/0003684042000201848.
  • [3] Arthur M Okun. (1962), “Potential Gnp: Its Measurement and Significance”. paper presented at the Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section of the American Statistical Association.
  • [4] Akram, M., Hussain, S., Raza, S. H., & Masood, S. (2014). Empirical estimation of Okun’s Law in the context of Pakistan. Journal of Finance and Economics, 2(5), 173-177. https://doi.org/10.12691/jfe-2-5-7.
  • [5] Alrasheedy, A. (2017). Monetary Policies for Full Employment and Price Stability in Saudi Arabia: An Endogenous Money Approach (Doctoral dissertation, University of Missouri-Kansas City). https://pqdtopen.proquest.com/doc/1906303289.html.
  • [6] Binet, M. E., & Facchini, F. (2013). Okun’s law in the French regions: a cross-regional comparison. Economics Bulletin, 33(1), 420-433. http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2013/Volume33/EB-13-V33-I1-P41.pdf.
  • [7] Ball, L., Jalles, J. T., & Loungani, P. (2015). Do forecasters believe in Okun’s Law? An assessment of unemployment and output forecasts. International Journal of Forecasting, 31(1), 176-184. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.03.009.
  • [8] Bartolucci, F., Choudhry, M. T., Marelli, E., & Signorelli, M. (2011, July). Financial Crises and Unemployment: Beyond the Okun’s Law. WP presented at Sixteenth World Congress of the International Economic Association, (Tsinghua University, Beijing, China 01/2011). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.10.002.
  • [9] Ben-Salha, O., & Mrabet, Z. (2019). Is Economic Growth Really Jobless? Empirical Evidence from North Africa. Comparative Economic Studies, 1-27. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41294-018-00082-9.
  • [10] Bhattarai, K. (2016). Unemployment–inflation trade-offs in OECD countries. Economic modelling, 58, 93-103. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.05.007.
  • [11] Benos, N., & Stavrakoudis, A. (2020). Okun’s Law: Copula-based Evidence from G7 Countries. MPRA Paper. Online at https://mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/103318/.
  • [12] Christopoulos, D.K., 2004. The relationship between output and unemployment: Evidence from Greek regions. Papers in Regional Science 83: 611–620.
  • [13] Doğru, B. (2013). The link between unemployment rate and real output in Eurozone: A panel error correction approach. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 99, 94-103. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2013.10.475.
  • [14] Driouche, D. (2013). Economic growth and unemployment in Algeria: An econometric study. An-Najah University Journal for Research-Humanities, 27(3), 1294-1322. https://journals.najah.edu/article/938/.
  • [15] Durech, R., Minea, A., Mustea, L., & Slusna, L. (2014). Regional evidence on Okun’s law in Czech Republic and Slovakia. Economic Modelling, 42, 57-65. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.05.039.
  • [16] Economou, A., & Psarianos, I. N. (2016). Revisiting Okun’s law in European Union countries. Journal of Economic Studies, 43(2), 275-287. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-05-2013-0063.
  • [17] Gabrisch, H., and H. Buscher. 2006. The relationship between unemployment and output in post-communist countries. Post-communist Economies 18: 261–276.
  • [18] Gil-Alana, L. A., Skare, M., & Buric, S. B. (2020). Testing Okun’s law. Theoretical and empirical considerations using fractional integration. Applied Economics, 52(5), 459-474. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2019.1646407.
  • [19] Guisinger, A. Y., Hernandez-Murillo, R., Owyang, M. T., & Sinclair, T. M. (2018). A state-level analysis of Okun’s law. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 68, 239-248. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2017.11.005.
  • [20] Hansen, B. E. (1999). Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference. Journal of Econometrics, 93(2), 345-368.
  • [21] Huang, H.C., and YK. Chang. 2005. Investigating Okun’s law by the structural break with threshold approach: Evidence from Canada. The Manchester School 73: 599–611.
  • [22] Imran, M., Mughal, K. S., Salman, A., & Makarevic, N. (2015). Unemployment and economic growth of developing Asian countries: A panel data analysis. European Journal of Economic Studies, (3), 147-160. https://doi.org/10.13187/es.2015.13.147.
  • [23] Keynes, J.M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. MacMillan and Cambridge University Press. London.
  • [24] Knotek II, E. S. (2007). How useful is Okun’s law? Economic Review-Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 92(4), 73. https://search.proquest.com/openview/.
  • [25] Koutroulis, A., Y. Panagopoulos, and E. Tsouma. 2016. Asymmetry in the response of unemployment to output changes in Greece: Evidence from hidden cointegration. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries 13: 81–88.
  • [26] Louail, B., & Riache, S. (2019). Asymmetry relationship between economic growth and unemployment rates in the Saudi economy: Application of Okun’s law during the period. https://doi.org/10.21833/ijaas.2019.10.013.
  • [27] Louail B. and Benarous D. (2021) “Relatioanisations and Markets in Emerging Economies, 12(1), pp. 71-85. httpsnship between Economic Growth and Unemployment Rates in the Algerian Economy: Application of Okun’s Law during 1991–2019”, Org://doi.org/10.15388/omee.2021.12.48.
  • [28] Maria J. Roa, Francisco Jose Vazquez, and Dulce Saura, (2008). Unemployment and Economic Growth Cycles. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 12(2), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.2202/1558-3708.1559.
  • [29] Okun, A. M. (1962). Potential GNP & Its Measurement and Significance, American Statistical Association, Proceedings of the Business and Economics Statistics Section, 98-104.
  • [30] Omari, B. K. A. (2019). An Empirical Analysis of Unemployment in Oman. GSJ, 7(3).
  • [31] Owyang, M. T., & Sekhposyan, T. (2012). Okun’s law over the business cycle: was the great recession all that different?. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 94 (September/October 2012). https://doi.org/10.20955/r.94.399-418.
  • [32] Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999). Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94(446), 621-634.
  • [33] Phillips, A.W. (1958). The relation between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates in the United Kingdom. Economica 1861-1957, 283–299.
  • [34] Prachowny, M. F. (1993). Okun’s law: theoretical foundations and revised estimates. The review of Economics and Statistics, 331-336. https://doi.org/10.2307/2109440.
  • [35] Pereira, R.M., 2014. Okun’s law, asymmetries and regional spillovers: Evidence from Virginia metropolitan statistical areas and the District of Columbia. The Annals of Regional Science, 52: 583–595.
  • [36] Razzu, G., and C. Singleton. 2013. Are business cycles gender neutral? Economics and management discussion paper no. 2013-104. Henley Business School.
  • [37] Silvapulle, P., IA, Moosa, and M.J. Silvapulle. 2004. Asymmetry in Okun’s law. The Canadian Journal of Economics 37: 353–374.
  • [38] Ting, N. Y., & Ling, L. S. (2011). Okun’S Law in Malaysia: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Ardl) Approach with Hodrick–Prescott (HP) Filter. Journal of Global Business and Economics, 2(1), 95-103.
  • [39] Valadkhani, A., & Smyth, R. (2015). Switching and asymmetric behaviour of the Okun coefficient in the US: Evidence for the 1948–2015 period. Economic Modelling, 50, 281-290. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.07.001.
  • [40] Widarjono, A. (2020). Asymmetric Okun’s Law in an Emerging Market: ASEAN-3 case. Economics & Sociology, 13(3), 203-217.
  • [41] World Development Indicators (WDI) 2018. Available at: https://data.worldbank.org/products/wdi (accessed on January 10, 2018).
  • [42] Zanin, L., 2014. On Okun’s law in OECD countries: An analysis by age cohorts. Economics Letters 125: 243–248.
Uwagi
Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa Nr 461252 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2021)
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-9667ade8-ab0e-4393-90ea-d56f91eddc20
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