Modelling of expansion changes of Vilnius city area and impacts on landscape patterns using an artificial neural network

• Autorzy: Mirsanjari Mir Mehrdad , Suziedelyte-Visockiene Jurate , Mohammadyari Fatemeh , Zarandian Ardavan

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.2478/eces-2021-0029

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The present study aimed to analyse changes in the land cover of Vilnius city and its surrounding areas and propose a scenario for their future changes using an Artificial Neural Network. The land cover dynamics modelling was based on a multilayer perceptron neural network. Landscape metrics at a class and landscape level were evaluated to determine the amount of changes in the land uses. As the results showed, the Built-up area class increased, while the forest (Semi forest and Dense forest) classes decreased during the period from 1999 to 2019. The predicted scenario showed a considerable increase of about 60 % in the Built-up area until 2039. The vegetation plant areas consist about 47 % of all the area in 2019, but it will be 36 % in 2039, if this trend (urban expansion) continues in the further. The findings further indicated the major urban expansion in the vegetation areas. However, Built-up area would expand over Semi forest land and Dense forest land, with a large part of them changed into built- up areas.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

land cover; land change modeller; artificial neural network; Markov chain; urban expansion; landscape pattern

PL

pokrycie terenu; sztuczne sieci neuronowe; łańcuch Markova; ekspansja miejska; wzorzec krajobrazu

• Wydawca: Towarzystwo Chemii i Inżynierii Ekologicznej
• Czasopismo: Ecological Chemistry and Engineering. S
• Rocznik: 2021
• Tom: Vol. 28, nr 3
• Strony: 429--447
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 59 poz., il., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Mirsanjari Mir Mehrdad

• Department of Environmental Sciences, Malayer University, Malayer, Iran

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5968-4422

autor

Suziedelyte-Visockiene Jurate

• Department of Geodesy and Cadastre, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Sauletekio al. 11, LT-10223 Vilnius, Lithuania

• https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9764-8476

autor

Mohammadyari Fatemeh

• Department of Environmental Sciences, Malayer University, Malayer, Iran

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8126-9807

autor

Zarandian Ardavan

• Group of Environmental Assessment and Risks, Researcher Center for Environmental and Sustainable Development (RCESD), Tehran, Iran

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7099-9839

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Uwagi

1. This research [paper] was performed as part of the employment of the authors at Vilnius Gediminas Technical University as employees and PhD student.

2. Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa Nr 461252 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2021).