Predicting the impact of climate change and the hydrological response within the Gurara reservoir catchment, Nigeria

• Autorzy: Oseke Francis Ifie-emi , Anornu Geophery Kwame , Adjei Kwaku Amaning , Eduvie Martin Obada

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.24425/jwld.2021.139023

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The 2150 km² transboundary Gurara Reservoir Catchment in Nigeria was modelled using the Water Evaluation and Planning tool to assess the hydro-climatic variability resulting from climate change and human-induced activities from 1989 to 2019 and projected to the future till 2050. Specifically, the model simulated the historic data set and predicted the future runoff. The initial results revealed that monthly calibration/validation of the model yielded acceptable results with Nash–Sutcliff efficiency (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS), and coefficient of determination (R²) values of 0.72/0.69, 0.72/0.67 and 4.0%/1.0% respectively. Uncertainty was moderately adequate as the model enveloped about 70% of the observed runoff. Future predicted runoffs were modelled for climate ensembles under three different representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5, RCP6.5 and RCP8.5). The RCP projections for all the climate change scenarios showed increasing runoff trends. The model proved efficient in determining the hydrological response of the catchment to potential impacts from climate change and human-induced activities. The model has the potential to be used for further analysis to aid effective water resources planning and management at catchment scale.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

climate change; Gurara reservoir catchment; hydrology; modelling; water availability

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwo ITP
• Czasopismo: Journal of Water and Land Development
• Rocznik: 2021
• Tom: no. 51
• Strony: 129--143
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 55 poz., rys., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Oseke Francis Ifie-emi

• National Water Resources Institute, Mando, P.MB 2309, Kaduna, Nigeria

• https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5119-7497

autor

Anornu Geophery Kwame

• National Water Resources Institute, Mando, P.MB 2309, Kaduna, Nigeria

autor

Adjei Kwaku Amaning

• National Water Resources Institute, Mando, P.MB 2309, Kaduna, Nigeria

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3220-6735

autor

Eduvie Martin Obada

• National Water Resources Institute, Mando, P.MB 2309, Kaduna, Nigeria

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MEiN, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2022-2023).