The Use of Some Forecasting Methods and SWOT Analysis in the Selected Processes of Foundry

• Autorzy: Szymszal J. , Gajdzik B.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1515/afe-2017-0160

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Forecasting and analysis SWOT are helping tools in the business activity, because under conditions of dynamic changes in both closer and more distant surroundings, reliable, forward-looking information and trends analysis are playing a decisive role. At present, the ability to use available data in forecasting and other analyzes according with changes in business environment are the key managerial skills required, since both forecasting and SWOT analysis are a integral part of the management process, and the appropriate level of forecasting knowledge is increasingly appreciated. Examples of practical use of some forecasting methods in optimization of the procurement, production and distribution processes in foundries are given. The possibilities of using conventional quantitative forecasting methods based on econometric and adaptive models applying the creep trend and harmonic weights are presented. The econometric models were additionally supplemented with the presentation of error estimation methodology, quality assessment and statistical verification of the forecast. The possibility of using qualitative forecasts based on SWOT analysis was also mentioned.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

computer aided method; casting production; forecasting method; SWOT analysis; statistical method; econometric method

PL

wspomaganie komputerowe; produkcja odlewnicza; metody prognozowania; analiza SWOT; metoda statystyczna; metoda ekonometryczna

• Wydawca: Komisja Odlewnictwa Polskiej Akademii Nauk Oddział w Katowicach
• Czasopismo: Archives of Foundry Engineering
• Rocznik: 2017
• Tom: Vol. 17, iss. 4
• Strony: 224--230
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 13 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Szymszal J.

• Institute of Production Engineering, Silesian University of Technology, ul. Krasińskiego 8, 40-019 Katowice, Poland

autor

Gajdzik B.

• Institute of Production Engineering, Silesian University of Technology, ul. Krasińskiego 8, 40-019 Katowice, Poland

Bibliografia

• [1] Granger, C.W.J. (1986). Forecasting Economic Time series. Orlando: Academic Press.
• [2] Dittmann, P. (2004). Forecasting in the enterprise. Kraków: Ed. e-Oficyna Ekonomiczna (in Polish).
• [3] Cieślak, M. (ed.) (2011). Economic forecasting. Methods and applications. Warszawa: Ed. PWN (in Polish).
• [4] Guzik, B., Appenzeller, D., Jurek, W. (2004). Forecasting and simulations. Selected issues. Poznań: Ed. Academy of Economics (in Polish).
• [5] Zeliaś, A., Pawełek, B., Wanat, S. (2003). Economic forecasting. Warszawa: Ed. PWN (in Polish).
• [6] Aczel, A.D. (2000). Statistics in management. Warszawa: Ed. PWE (in Polish).
• [7] Sobczyk, M. (2008). Forecasting. Theory. Examples. Tasks. Warszawa: Ed. Placet (in Polish).
• [8] Kirgin, K. (2010). Regaining lost ground. Mod. Casting. 100,(3), 32-35. (in Polish).
• [9] Sobczak, J. (ed.) (2014). Forecasts and development trends in global and domestic foundry. Ed. Foundry Institute. (in Polish).
• [10] Szymszal, J., Gierek, A. & Piątkowski, J. (2006). Forecasting time series showing seasonal fluctuations using the regression method and contractual variables associated with the procurement of a foundry shop. Archives of Foundry. 6(18), 27-32.
• [11] Szymszal, J., Piątkowski, J., Gierek, A. & Pucka, A. (2006). Use of autoregressive models for forecasting time series related to the sale of steel assortment. Archives of Foundry. 18, 39-44.
• [12] Krawiec, S. (2014). Adaptive models of exponential smoothing as instruments for short-term forecasting of quantitative phenomena. Gliwice: Ed. Silesian University of Technology (in Polish).
• [13] Kryczek, A., Pachota, M. & Przytuła, S. (2011). Specialist statistical surveys in the foundry industry. Modern foundry Poland and the World. 4, 5-9 (in Polish).

Uwagi

PL

Opracowanie ze środków MNiSW w ramach umowy 812/P-DUN/2016 na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (zadania 2017).