The impact of initial and boundary conditions on severe weather event simulations using a high-resolution WRF model. Case study of the derecho event in Poland on 11 August 2017

• Autorzy: Figurski Mariusz J. , Nykiel Grzegorz , Jaczewski Adam , Bałdysz Zofia , Wdowikowski Marcin

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.26491/mhwm/143877

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Precise simulations of severe weather events are a challenge in the era of changing climate. By performing simulations correctly and accurately, these phenomena can be studied and better understood. In this paper, we have verified how different initial and boundary conditions affect the quality of simulations performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). For our analysis, we chose a derecho event that occurred in Poland on 11 August 2017, the most intense and devastating event in recent years. High-resolution simulations were conducted with initialization at 00 and 12 UTC (11 August 2017) using initial and boundary conditions derived from the four global models: Global Forecast System (GFS) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Integrated Forecast System (IFS) developed by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) and ERA5. For the last, we made separate calculations using data at the pressure and model levels. The results were evaluated against surface and radar data. We found that the simulations that used data from the GDAS and GFS models at 12 UTC were the more accurate, while ERA5 gave the worst predictions. However, all models were characterized by a low probability of detection and a high number of false alarms for simulations of extreme precipitation and wind gusts.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

simulations; severe weather; WRF; GFS; GDAS; ERA5; IFS; derecho; initial conditions; bow echo

• Wydawca: Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
• Czasopismo: Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications
• Rocznik: 2022
• Tom: Vol. 10, Iss. 2
• Strony: 60--87
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 52 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Figurski Mariusz J.

• Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9602-5007

autor

Nykiel Grzegorz

• Gdansk University of Technology, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Poland
• Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6827-0205

autor

Jaczewski Adam

• Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2364-5835

autor

Bałdysz Zofia

• Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8398-6703

autor

Wdowikowski Marcin

• Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2693-0946

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MEiN, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2022-2023).