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Determination of probabilities defining safety of a sea-going ship during performance of a transportation task in stormy weather conditions

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Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
The paper presents the possibility of applying the theory of semi-Markov processes to determine the limiting distribution for the process of changes of technical states being reliability states of the systems of sea-going ships significantly affecting safety of such ships, which include main engine, propeller and steering gear. The distribution concerns the probabilities of occurrence of the said states defined for a long time of ship operation (t → ∞). The considered states are as follows: s0 – full ability state of the systems, i.e.: main engine, propeller and steering gear, s1 – inability state of the main engine, s2 – inability state of the propeller, s3 – inability state of the steering gear. Significance of the systems for safety of the ships at sea was demonstrated herein. General conditions for performing transportation tasks by the ships, with particular regard to stormy conditions, were also here described.
Rocznik
Strony
21--30
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 24 poz., rys., wykr.
Twórcy
autor
  • Gdansk University of Technology, Faculty of Ocean Engineering and Ship Technology, Department of Marine and Land Power Plants, G. Narutowicza Str., 80-233 Gdansk, tel.: (+48 58) 347-24-30
Bibliografia
  • [1] Benjamin J. R., Cornell C. A.: Probability calculus, mathematical statistics and decision theory for engineers. WNT, Warszawa 1977.
  • [2] Firkowicz S.: Statististical assessment of quality and reliability of electronic lamp. WNT, Warszawa 1963.
  • [3] Gercbach I.B., Kordonski Ch.B.: Reliability models of technical objects. WNT, Warszawa 1968.
  • [4] Girtler J.: The semi-Markov model of the process of appearance of sea-going ship propulsion system ability and inability states in application to determining the reliability of these systems. Polish Maritime Research 4(80) 2013 Vol 20; pp. 18-24.
  • [5] Girtler J.: Issue of making decisions with regard to ship traffic safety in different situations at sea. . W: Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation Navigational Problems. 2013, Gdynia pp.63 – 70 (chapter in Monograph).
  • [6] Girtler J., Kuszmider S., Plewiński L.: Selected issues of operation of sea-going ships in the aspect of navigation safety. Monograph. WSM, Szczecin 2003.
  • [7] Girtler J., Kitowski Z., Kuriata A.: Ship safety at sea. System approach. WKiŁ, Warszawa 1995.
  • [8] Girtler J.: Application of the Bayesian decision theory for controlling the machine operation process. Materials of XXII Winter Reliability Academy on Reliability evaluation in the processes of technological tasks performance, in logistic approach. SPE KBM PAN, Szczyrk 1994, s.55-62.
  • [9] Girtler J.: Control over the process of ship combustion engine operation on the basis of decision – making diagnostic model. Journals of AMW, Nr 100A, Gdynia 1989.
  • [10] Girtler J.: Probability as a measure of operational safety of technical objects. Materials of 7th Scientific Conference „Safety of systems”. PTBiN, PTC, SPE KBM PAN, STŚT KT PAN, Transport Departament of PW, ITWL, Warszawa-Zakopane-Kościelisko 1998, pp.163-168.
  • [11] Girtler J.: Suggestion of interpretation of action and the rule of taking decision with regard to safety of sea ships traffic. Machine Operation Aspects. Z. 2(122), vol. 35, 2000, pp177-191.
  • [12] Girtler J.: A concept of decision-making process with taking into account reliability and safety of sea transport means. Materials of Domestic Conference on Safety and Reliability, Vol.1. ITWL, Warszawa-Zakopane-Koscielisko 1999, pp. 289-296.
  • [13] Girtler J.: Diagnostics as a condition for control over ship combustion engines in operation. Studies No. 28. WSM, Szczecin 1997.
  • [14] Girtler J.: Availability of sea transport means. Archives of Transport. Polish Academy of Sciences Committee of Transport. Quarterly, vol. 9, iss. 3-4, Warszawa 1997.
  • [15] Girtler J.: Features of load and wear of main propulsion devices on sea-going ships with piston combustion engines and their impact on changes in technical states of the systems. Polish Maritime Research 4(96) 2017 Vol 24 (accepted for publishing).
  • [16] Grabski F.: Theory of semi-Markov processes of operation of technical objects. Journal of WSMW, No. 75A, Gdynia, 1982.
  • [17] Gniedenko B.W., Bielajew J.K., Sołowiew A.D: Mathematical methods in theory of reliability, WNT, Warszawa,1968.
  • [18] Jaźwiński J., Borgoń J.: Operational reliaility and flight safety. WKiŁ, Warszawa 1989.
  • [19] Krzysztofiak M., Urbanek D.: Statistical methods. PWN, Warszawa 1979.
  • [20] Łosiewicz Z.: Identifying the issue of reducing the emission of harmful compounds in the exhaust gas from marine main engines and description of the emission process of these compounds in probabilistic approach. Polish Maritime Research No. 2(94) 2017, Vol. 24, pp. 89-95.
  • [21] Plewiński L.: Accidents at sea. Collisions of ships. Publ. of WSM, Szczecin, 2000.
  • [22] Rudnicki J.: Aplication isssues of the semi-Markov reliability model. Polish Maritime Research No. 1(85) 2015, Vol. 22, pp. 55-64.
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  • [24] Guidebook on reliability. Collective work edited by J. Migdalskiego. Machine Industry Publishing House „WEMA”, Warszawa 1982.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-8fa198d7-e016-4635-b241-9f02f464f2bb
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