Metodologiczny kontekst przewidywania wojen i konfliktów zbrojnych przyszłości

• Autorzy: Fryc M.

Warianty tytułu

EN

Methodological context of forecasting future wars and armed conflicts

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

EN

In the article the author justifies the necessity to undertake by scholars research and studies on future wars and outlines a general idea of postulated cognitive approach. Underlining complexity, multidimensionality, differentiation and dynamics of the phenomenon under research, the author suggests using a prospective „meta-realistic” approach connecting historical, analytical, diagnostic and creative contexts. In practice this phenomenon means the implementation of several directives, such as: - before you start forecasting, recognise the nature and essence of the phenomenon – war, armed conflict and then define factors which may shape their particular type, character, course and result; - divide the whole research process into three phases, in each try to find out what has happened, next what the current state is and why, and finally wonder what the situation might be like; - as much as possible take advantage of the history of wars and armed conflicts, look for links, rules and laws governing them, search for permanent regularities conditioning them and on this basis draw useful conclusions; - consider the political, legal, military, economic, social, cultural, technical, technological, environmental and informational dimensions when you diagnose the current reality while looking for processes and trends that may essentially change the image of future wars and armed conflicts and consequently decide on their type and character; - try to stand out and differentiate particularly general processes and tendencies, i.e. crucial forces conditioning the structure of the world order, and then conduct their extrapolation into the future in order to notice and comprehend current and new mechanisms of the future world functioning, including the regularities concerning the course of wars and conflicts; - while extrapoling the future, be aware of the limitations of this method, pay particular attention to the fact that it does not prove correct in conditions of intense accidentality and turbulence but in areas of low dynamics of changes; - remember that defining new possible images of wars is not possible without considering superior factors determining this phenomenon, such as the structure of the world order, international security system, strategic „players’” attitude and interests, etc.; - before creating the future vision, try looking at the war in a different way, forget for a moment about your current knowledge and experience in order to be able to notice in it different, unrevealed so far features and characteristics so as to break away from “cognitive maps” limiting us so far; - while creating scenarios of future situations, different types of visions, apply an analytical and intuitional approach, thus connecting in a rational manner with creating approach in order to use as much as possible exiting in them paradox of logic and creativity, their contradictions and mutual dialectics; - created scenarios, visions of the future must on the one hand crystalise distinctness of opinions, on the other must show internal coherence and high level of external probability. Moreover, there is required the necessity of finding an optimal balance between credibility of predictions, their detailed specification (description) versus the uncertainty of the future context under consideration; - while creating a possible future, prepare its various versions. Thus develop a wide and complete spectrum of images of the future, world, security environment, wars in different variants; - remember also that the horizon of the forecast must be adapted to the level of uncertainty of a given future and this uncertainty is different for particular domains or spheres.

Słowa kluczowe

PL

konflikt zbrojny; wojna; metodologia

EN

armed conflict; war; methodology

• Wydawca: Akademia Sztuki Wojennej
• Czasopismo: Zeszyty Naukowe AON
• Rocznik: 2009
• Tom: nr 3(76)
• Strony: 237--260
• Opis fizyczny: rys.

Twórcy

autor

Fryc M.