Significance risks evaluation of commercial construction projects

• Autorzy: Konior J.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.2478/ace-2019-0016

Warianty tytułu

PL

Pomiar istotności ryzyk niepublicznych przedsięwzięć budowlanych

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The main objective of the article is to present quantified and measurable risks likelihood appearance, impact and significance of inspected and monitored 48 commercial construction projects and their feasibility to be carried out. Original technical, financial and organisational feasibility studies in compliance with a rigorous Bank Investment Supervision requirements have been executed by the author in the period of 2005 – 2018. Methodology of construction project appraisal for financing and execution professional preparation have been laid out – technical documentation, arrangements, realisation. Analysis and assessment of Bank Investment Supervision consisted of project execution plan PEP, geotechnical and environmental conditions, permit design, agreements and decision impacts of local authorities, engineering contract for construction works, project insurance and performance bonds, schedule of execution tasks and their costs, payment plan, investment budget and project economical effectiveness, scope of monthly construction works execution assessed by Earned Value Method approach and handover procedure of construction project. An attempt was made to express numerically the relationship between risks impacts and their level of likelihood. Also, a method of associating the influence of projects risks impacts on the extent of the likelihood of project risk occurrence which makes possible to determine the direction and the strength of this relationship was presented. Finally, risks likelihood appearance, impact and significance variability of commercial construction projects within last two years of booming investment industry have been determined.

PL

W artykule przedstawiono techniczne, finansowe i organizacyjne metody oceny istotności ryzyk przedsięwzięć budowlanych podejściem i wymaganiami Nadzoru Bankowego. Zaprezentowano metodykę oceny poprawności przygotowania inwestycji niepublicznych do wykonania i finansowania oraz monitorowania ich realizacji według przyjętych, sparametryzowanych założeń kosztowych i czasowych. Celem badań była zestandaryzowana, mierzalna ocena kluczowych parametrów ryzyk zadań inwestycyjnych – ich wpływu, prawdopodobieństwa występowania i istotności - prowadząca do minimalizacji niewłaściwego kredytowania zadań inwestycyjnych przez Bank Finansujący. Analizie i ocenie poddano Plan Realizacji Projektu PRP, warunki geotechniczne i środowiskowe, projekt budowlany, uzgodnienia i decyzje administracyjne, kontrakt inżynierski, ubezpieczenia i gwarancje, harmonogram rzeczowo – finansowy, plan płatności, budżet inwestycji i jej rentowność z okresem zwrotu, poziom miesięcznego przerobu robót budowlanych Metodą Wartości Wypracowanej EVM, pomiar istotnych ryzyk inwestycyjnych oraz procedurę odbiorową przedsięwzięcia budowlanego.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

construction project; risk; risk significance; correlation

PL

przedsięwzięcie budowlane; ryzyko; istotność ryzyka; korelacja

• Wydawca: Komitet Inżynierii Lądowej i Wodnej PAN ; Politechnika Warszawska, Wydział Inżynierii Lądowej
• Czasopismo: Archives of Civil Engineering
• Rocznik: 2019
• Tom: Vol. 65, nr 2
• Strony: 19--33
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 21 poz., il., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Konior J.

• Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Construction Technology and Management, Wrocław, Poland

Bibliografia

• [1] N.M. Almeida, V. Sousa, L. A. Dias, F. Branco, “Engineering risk management in performance-based building environments”, Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 2015, pp. 218-230.
• [2] N.M. Almeida, V. Sousa, L. A. Dias, F. Branco, “Managing the technical risk of performance-based building structures”, Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 2015, pp. 384-394.
• [3] S. Chi, S. Han, D.Y. Kim, Y. Shin, “Accident risk identification and its impact analyses for strategic construction safety management”, Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 2015, pp. 524-538.
• [4] T. Hanak, J. Korytarova, “Subsidy risk related to construction projects: seeking causes”, Open Engineering, 2018, pp. 484-489.
• [5] N. Ibadov, J. Kulejewski, “The assessment of construction project risks with the use of fuzzy sets theory”, Technical Transactions, 2014, pp. 175-182.
• [6] O. Kapliński, J. Konior, “Analytical methods and models in the building project engineering”, PAN, 2007, pp. 249-284.
• [7] T. Kasprowicz, “Quantitative identification of construction risk”, Archives of Civil Engineering, 2017, vol. LXIII, pp. 63-74.
• [8] T. Kasprowicz, “Quantitative assessment of construction risk”, Archives of Civil Engineering, 2017, vol. LXIII, pp. 55-66.
• [9] J. Konior, “Random and Fuzzy Measure of Unpredictable Construction Works”, Archives of Civil Engineering, 2015, vol. LXI, pp. 75-87.
• [10] J. Konior, “Enterprises Risk Assessment of Complex Construction Projects”, Archives of Civil Engineering, 2015, vol. LXI, pp. 63-74.
• [11] S. Mak, D. Picken, “Using risk analysis to determine construction project contingencies”, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 2000, pp. 130-136.
• [12] D.F. Morrison, “Multivariate statistical methods”, McGraw - Hill Book Company, New York 1990, pp. 121-123.
• [13] J.D. Silvestre, A. Silva, J. de Brito, “Uncertainty modelling of service life and environmental performance to reduce risk in building design decisions”, Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 2015, pp. 308-32.
• [14] E. Plebankiewicz, K. Zima, D. Wieczorek, „Life cycle cost modelling of buildings with consideration of the risk”, Archives of Civil Engineering, 2016, vol. LXII, pp. 149-166.
• [15] E. Plebankiewicz, K. Zima, D. Wieczorek, “Quantification of the risk addition in life cycle cost of a building object”, Technical Transactions, 2017, vol. V, pp. 35-45.
• [16] E. Plebankiewicz, K. Zima, D. Wieczorek, 2019. “Model Estimation of the Whole Life Cost of a Building with respect to Risk Factors”, Technological and Economic Development of Economy, vol. XXV, pp. 20-38.
• [17] D. Skorupka, “Identification and initial risk assessment of construction projects in Poland”, Journal of Management in Engineering, 2008, pp. 120-127.
• [18] N.J. Smith, T. Merna, P. Jobling, “Managing risk in construction projects”, Wiley-Blackwell, 2009, pp. 16-19.
• [19] P. Szymański, “Risk management in construction projects”, Procedia Engineering, 2017, pp. 174-182.
• [20] J. Yu, M. Jeon, T.W. Kim, “Fuzzy-based composite indicator development methodology for evaluating overall project performance”, Journal of Civil Engineering and Management 2015, pp. 343-355.
• [21] E.K. Zavadskas, Z. Turskisb, J. Tamošaitienec, “Risk assessment of construction projects”, Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 2010, pp. 33-46.

Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu w ramach umowy 509/P-DUN/2018 ze środków MNiSW przeznaczonych na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (2019).