Impact of Climate Change on Cultivated Areas and Crop Yields for Cereals and Pulses in the Zaër Region (Morocco)

• Autorzy: El Omari Mariyam , Zerdeb Mohammed Amine , Soukaina El Idrissi , Majid Issam , Aziane Nadia , Oubbih Jamal , Ramah Mohamed , Chakiri Saïd

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.12912/27197050/177839

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

On the one hand, this study assesses the evolution of climatological parameters in the Zaër region between 1986 and 2021 and, on the other hand, it studies the effect of climatic variations on cereal and leguminous crop yields between 2000 and 2020, in order to further elucidate the consequences of their fluctuations on crop yields and to mitigate their regression process by making it possible to analyze favorable adaptation strategies for agricultural systems that can be envisaged for the coming decades. The methodology is based on the use of trend curves and statistics (averages and standard deviations) to analyze changes in climatic parameters and their effects on yields. The results show that the average temperature in the Zaër region is set to rise from 19°C in 1986 to 22°C in 2020. Higher temperatures mean lower yields of rainfed cereals and pulses, and average rainfall varies between 330 mm in 1986 and 570 mm in 2021, with rainfall increasing the likelihood of crop failure in the short term and reducing production in the long term. In addition, the rainy season is short (4 to 5 months per year). These characteristics make Zaër’s agriculture very sensitive to climate-related threats. Studying seasonal climate forecasts before each rainy season can help farmers to minimize rainfall hazards and thus optimize their crop yields.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

agriculture; climate change; semi-arid region; crop yield; cultivated area

• Wydawca: Lubelski Oddział Polskiego Towarzystwo Inżynierii Ekologicznej ; Lublin University of Technology ; WNGB Wydawnictwo Naukowe
• Czasopismo: Ecological Engineering & Environmental Technology
• Rocznik: 2024
• Tom: Vol. 25, iss. 3
• Strony: 141--154
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 26 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

El Omari Mariyam

• Laboratory of Geosciences, Department of Geology, Faculty of Sciences, Ibn Tofaïl University, Av. de L'Université, Kenitra 14000, Morocco

• https://orcid.org/0009-0005-4052-2457

autor

Zerdeb Mohammed Amine

• Laboratory of Geosciences, Department of Geology, Faculty of Sciences, Ibn Tofaïl University, Av. de L'Université, Kenitra 14000, Morocco

autor

Soukaina El Idrissi

• Laboratory of Geosciences, Department of Geology, Faculty of Sciences, Ibn Tofaïl University, Av. de L'Université, Kenitra 14000, Morocco

autor

Majid Issam

• Laboratory of Geosciences, Department of Geology, Faculty of Sciences, Ibn Tofaïl University, Av. de L'Université, Kenitra 14000, Morocco

autor

Aziane Nadia

• Laboratory of Organic Chemistry, Catalysis and Environment, Department of Chemistry, Faculty of Sciences,Ibn Tofail University, Av. de L'Université, Kenitra 14000, Morocco

autor

Oubbih Jamal

• Laboratory of Geosciences, Department of Geology, Faculty of Sciences, Ibn Tofaïl University, Av. de L'Université, Kenitra 14000, Morocco

autor

Ramah Mohamed

• Office National du Conseil Agricole, Khemisset 15000, Morocco

autor

Chakiri Saïd

• Laboratory of Geosciences, Department of Geology, Faculty of Sciences, Ibn Tofaïl University, Av. de L'Université, Kenitra 14000, Morocco

Bibliografia

• 1. Bahir M., Ouhamdouch S., Ouazar D., El Moçayd N. 2016. Effet du changement climatique sur les caractéristiques des eaux souterraines, 221–237. https://doi.org/10.7202/1047050ar
• 2. Balme M., Galle S., Lebel T. 2005. Démarrage de la saison des pluies au Sahel : variabilité aux échelles hydrologique et agronomique, analysée à partir des données EPSAT-Niger-Séchresse. Sécheresse, 16 (1), 15–22.
• 3. Barakat F., Handoufe A. 1998. Approche agroclimatique de la sécheresse agricole au Maroc. Science et changements planétaires. Sécheresse, 9(3), 201–208.
• 4. Belaid N., Neel C., Lenain J.F., Buzier R., Kallel M., Ayoub T., Ayadi A., Baudu M. 2012. Assessment of metal accumulation in calcareous soil and forage crops subjected to long-term irrigation using treated wastewater: case of El Hajeb-Sfax, Tunisia. Agric., Ecosyst. Environ. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2012.06.002.
• 5. Bellia S., Courtot R., 2003. Les impacts du réchauffement climatique sur la production de blé en Beauce, GéoProdig, portail d’information géographique. http://geoprodig.cnrs.fr/items/show/196570.
• 6. Benaouda H., Balaghi R. 2009. Les changements climatiques: Impacts sur l’agriculture au Maroc.
• 7. CGIAR-Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research. 2009. Climate, agriculture and food security: A strategy for change.
• 8. Douguédroit A., Durbiano Cl., Messaoudi A., Ait Hamza M. 1998. Rendements du blé dur et de l’orge en culture bour dans le Maroc du Centre-ouest, Méditerranée, 1, 39–44, http://geoprodig.cnrs.fr/items/show/67799.
• 9. Elkriti S. 1976. Effet de l’année climatique sur le rendement du blé dur en Bour dans les régions céréalières du Maroc: Meknès/Fès/Marrakech. Mémoire de fin d’étude. ENA Meknès.
• 10. El Omari M. 2023. Physico-chemical characterization and quality of agricultural soils in the Zaër region (Morocco). Ecological Engineering et Environmental Technology, 24(8), 155–171. https://doi.org/10.12912/27197050/171528.
• 11. Fezzaz M. 1986. Modélisation agro-climatique: etude des risques et des contraintes imposés par la sécheresse aux céréales d’automne: Cas de Trois Régions au Maroc. Mémoire de 3ème cycle en Agronomie, IAV, Hassan II-Rabat.
• 12. Génin A., François A., Gauché É. 2016. L’adaptation des territoires aux changements climatiques dans l’Oriental marocain : la vulnérabilité entre action et perceptions. La revue électronique en sciences de l’environnement, 16(1). https://doi.org/10.4000/vertigo.17177.
• 13. Giorgi F. 2006. Climate change hot-spots geophysical research letters, 33(8). https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025734.
• 14. GIEC. 2001. Bilan des changements climatiques : rapport de synthèse. Troisième rapport d’évaluation, Genève, Groupe intergouvernemental d’experts sur l’évolution du climat, www.ipcc.ch.
• 15. Gommes R., El Hairech T., Rosillon D., Balaghi R. 2009. Impact of climate change on agricultural yields in Morocc. World Bank – Morocco Study on the Impact of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Roma, Italy, 105. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.30378.80322.
• 16.Jat H.S., Datta A., Choudhary M., Yadav A.K., Choudhary V., Sharma P.C., Gathala M.K., Jat M.L., McDonald A. 2019. Effects of tillage, crop establishment and diversification on soil organic carbon, aggregation, aggregate associated carbon and productivity in cereal systems of semi-arid northwest India. Soil and Tillage Research, 190, 128–138. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.still.2019.03.005
• 17. Martonne E. 1942. La France. 1. France physique. A. Colin, Paris, 464. https://doi.org/10.4000/geomorphologie.921.
• 18. McKee T.B., Doesken N.J., Kleist J. 1993. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, 17–22, 179–184.
• 19. McKee T.B., Doesken N.J., Kleist J., Amer Meteorol S.O.C. 1995. Drought monitoring with multiple time scales. 9th Conference on Applied Climatology. American Meteorological Society, Dallas, Texas.
• 20. Moussadek R., Mrabet R., Dahan R., Douaik A., Verdoodt A., Van Ranst E., Corbeels M. 2011. Effect of tillage practices on the soil carbon dioxide flux during fall and spring seasons in a mediterranean vertisol. Journal of Soil Science and Environmental Management, 2, 362–369. https://doi.org/10.5897/JSSEM.9000030.
• 21. Ndiaye M.L., Niang S., Dieng Y., Pfeifer HR., Peduzzi R., Tonolla M., Dieng Y. 2010. Effect of irrigation water on the incidence of Salmonella spp. on lettuces produced by urban agriculture and sold on the markets in Dakar, Senegal, 5(19), 2885–2890. https://doi.org/10.5897/AJMR11.209.
• 22. Ouharba E., Triqui Z., Moussadek R. 2015. Climate change impacton cereal culture in morocco. case study Rommani (Rabat Region), Bouregreg Watershed Centre, 7, 150211. https://doi.org/10.21275/8051801.
• 23. RGPH. 2014. Population légale des régions, provinces et préfectures du royaume du Maroc d’après les résultats du Recensement General de la Population et de l’Habitat.
• 24. Sonacos. 2016. Résultats des essais variétaux de démonstration dans la région de Meknès et Rommani. Pôle technique-département Essais et Expérimentations. Doc. Interne. 14- Non publié.
• 25. Thornthwaite C.W. 1948. An approach toward a rational classification of climate. The geographical Review, vol. XXXVIII, n° 1, 55–94. https://doi.org/10.2307/210739.
• 26. Thornthwaite, C.W. Mather, J.R. 1955. Water balance publication in climatology. Drexel Ins. of Tech., 8(1). https://doi.org/10.12691/ajwr-3-5-1.

Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2024).