An updated version of the ETAS model based on multiple change points detection

Benali, Amel; Zhuang, Jiancang; Talbi, Abdelhak

doi:10.1007/s11600-022-00863-y

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Tytuł artykułu

An updated version of the ETAS model based on multiple change points detection

Autorzy

Benali Amel , Zhuang Jiancang , Talbi Abdelhak

Wybrane pełne teksty z tego czasopisma

https://www.springer.com/journal/11600

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1007/s11600-022-00863-y

Warianty tytułu

Języki publikacji

Abstrakty

The stationary Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is applied to seismicity in Central Italy, in order to study the temporal changes of the corresponding earthquakes time series. However, the residual analysis reveals that some features of the observed seismicity cannot be captured by the stationary ETAS model in its standard formulation. In this case, a decision-tree algorithm is developed to deal with inference problems linked to the estimation of specific time points where stationarity may be potentially broken. Specifically, this algorithm considers the subdivision of the whole time period into two or more subintervals that join in specific time points called change points, where significant time variation in the ETAS parameters is observed. As a result, a three-stage ETAS model with two change points is selected as the best model describing seismicity of the Central Apennines region during the time period 2005–2017, compared to the standard ETAS model. The variation of the estimated ETAS parameters is statistically significant from one stage to another. In particular, the three-stage ETAS estimates of background seismicity rates are found to be increasing from one stage to another over time.

Słowa kluczowe

statistical seismology ETAS model decision tree algorithm multiple change points

sejsmologia statystyczna model ETAS algorytm drzewa decyzyjnego

Wydawca

Instytut Geofizyki PAN
Springer

Czasopismo

Acta Geophysica

Rocznik

2022

Tom

Vol. 70, no 5

Strony

2013--2031

Opis fizyczny

Bibliogr. 60 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Benali Amel

benali.amel1992@gmail.com

Division Aléas et Risques Géologiques, Centre de Recherche en Astronomie, Astrophysique et Géophysique, Route de l’observatoire, BP 63, 16340 Bouzareah, Algiers, Algeria

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1829-1366

autor

Zhuang Jiancang

Département de Probabilités et Statistiques, Faculté des Mathématiques, Université des Sciences et de la Technologie Houari Boumediene, BP 32, 16111 Bab Ezzouar, Algiers, Algeria

autor

Talbi Abdelhak

Division Aléas et Risques Géologiques, Centre de Recherche en Astronomie, Astrophysique et Géophysique, Route de l’observatoire, BP 63, 16340 Bouzareah, Algiers, Algeria
Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Research Organization of Information and Systems, 10-3 Midori-Cho, Tachikawa, Tokyo 190-8562, Japan

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MEiN, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2022-2023).

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Bibliografia

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