Verification of a global weather forecasting system for decision-making in farming over Africa

Kartsios, Stergios; Pytharoulis, Ioannis; Karacostas, Theodore; Pavlidis, Vasileios; Katragkou, Eleni

doi:10.1007/s11600-023-01136-y

Artykuł - szczegóły

Tytuł artykułu

Verification of a global weather forecasting system for decision-making in farming over Africa

Autorzy

Kartsios Stergios , Pytharoulis Ioannis , Karacostas Theodore , Pavlidis Vasileios , Katragkou Eleni

Wybrane pełne teksty z tego czasopisma

https://www.springer.com/journal/11600

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1007/s11600-023-01136-y

Warianty tytułu

Języki publikacji

Abstrakty

In the framework of AfriCultuReS project, operational deterministic weather forecasts provide valuable information on the expected weather conditions over the African continent as a part of federation of services within the project. In this study, we investigate the performance of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) over pilot regions in Africa by utilizing available surface observations, satellite and reanalysis data. The verification period covers two consecutive years (June 2018-May 2020). In addition, we assess the ability of the model to provide skillful forecasts through three high-impact precipitation events that occurred during this period. The results show that the model presents both positive and negative biases with respect to its predicted near surface air temperature, underestimates the near surface relative humidity and the mean sea-level pressure, while overestimates the wind speed at 10 m. The neighborhood-based statistical verification of the 24-h accumulated precipitation reveals that the model forecasts the precipitation events more accurately as the verification area is increasing but at higher precipitation thresholds its performance deteriorates. Different variability, errors and correlation between simulated and observed precipitation exist in each forecast lead day and region. A range of model behavior and forecast skill is found with respect to the examined three precipitation events. Skillful forecasts up to four days ahead were provided in the cases of the Tropical Cyclone IDAI and the flash flooding events in northern Tunisia, while the lowest performance was found in the region of the West African Monsoon.

Słowa kluczowe

NCEP/GFS model verification IMERG tropical cyclone IDAI AfriCultuReS

NCEP/GFS weryfikacja modelu IMERG cyklon tropikalny IDAI

Wydawca

Instytut Geofizyki PAN
Springer

Czasopismo

Acta Geophysica

Rocznik

2024

Tom

Vol. 72, no. 1

Strony

467--488

Opis fizyczny

Bibliogr. 86 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Kartsios Stergios

kartsios@geo.auth.gr

Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Faculty of Sciences, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54636 Thessaloniki, Greece

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2790-3782

autor

Pytharoulis Ioannis

pyth@geo.auth.gr

Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Faculty of Sciences, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54636 Thessaloniki, Greece

autor

Karacostas Theodore

karac@geo.auth.gr

Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Faculty of Sciences, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54636 Thessaloniki, Greece

autor

Pavlidis Vasileios

vapavlid@physics.auth.gr

Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Faculty of Sciences, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54636 Thessaloniki, Greece

autor

Katragkou Eleni

katragou@geo.auth.gr

Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Faculty of Sciences, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54636 Thessaloniki, Greece

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