Study of the seismic activity in central Ionian Islands via semi-Markov modelling

• Autorzy: Pertsinidou Ch.E. , Tsaklidis G. , Papadimitriou E.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1007/s11600-017-0040-y

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The seismicity of the central Ionian Islands (M ≥ 5.2, 1911–2014) is studied via a semi-Markov chain which is investigated in terms of the destination probabilities (occurrence probabilities). The interevent times are considered to follow geometric (in which case the semi-Markov model reduces to a Markov model) or Pareto distributions. The study of the destination probabilities is useful for forecasting purposes because they can provide the more probable earthquake magnitude and occurrence time. Using the first half of the data sample for the estimation procedure and the other half for forecasting purposes it is found that the time windows obtained by the destination probabilities include 72.9% of the observed earthquake occurrence times (for all magnitudes) and 71.4% for the larger (M ≥ 6.0) ones.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

semi-Markov model; seismic hazard assessment; destination probabilities; entrance probabilities

PL

model semi-Markowa; ocena zagrożenia sejsmicznego

• Wydawca: Instytut Geofizyki PAN ; Springer
• Czasopismo: Acta Geophysica
• Rocznik: 2017
• Tom: Vol. 65, no. 3
• Strony: 533--541
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 26 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Pertsinidou Ch.E.

• Department of Mathematics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloníki, Greece; Université de Technologie de Compiègne, Sorbonne Universités, LMAC Laboratoire de Mathématiques Appliquées de Compiègne, Compiègne, France

autor

Tsaklidis G.

• Department of Mathematics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloníki, Greece

autor

Papadimitriou E.

• Department of Geophysics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloníki, Greece

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