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Data-driven score test of fit for conditional distribution in the GARCH (1, 1) model

Wybrane pełne teksty z tego czasopisma
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Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
A data-driven score test for a conditional distribution in the GARCH (1, 1) model is proposed. Conditional distribution assumption is verified by a score test, obtained from nesting the null density into an exponential family and then choosing the dimension of this exponential family by a score-based selection rule. A simulation study, which is provided, shows good empirical behaviour of the proposed test, outperforming in most cases the behaviour of competitive tests.
Rocznik
Strony
331--362
Opis fizyczny
Bibliogr. 40 poz., tab.
Twórcy
autor
  • Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, Wrocław University of Technology, Wybrzeże Wyspiańskiego 27, 50-370 Wroclaw, Poland
  • Polish Academy of Sciences
  • Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, Wrocław University of Technology, Wybrzeże Wyspiańskiego 27, 50-370 Wroclaw, Poland
Bibliografia
  • [1] J. Bai, Testing parametric conditional distributions of dynamic models, Rev. Econom. Statist. 85 (2003), pp. 531-549.
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  • [4] T. Bollerslev, Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedusticity, J. Econometrics 31 (1986), pp. 307-327.
  • [5] T. Bollerslev, A conditionally heteroskedastic time-series model for speculative prices and rates of return data, Rev. Econometrics Statist. 69 (1987), pp. 542-547.
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  • [9] Y.-T. Chen, A new class of characteristic-function-based distribution tests and its application to GARCH model, Working paper, ISSP, Academia Sinica, 2002.
  • [10] Y.-T. Chen and C.-M. Kuan, Generalized Jarque-Bera test of conditional normality, Working paper, Academia Sinica, 2002.
  • [11] D. R. Cox and D. V. Hinkley, Theoretical Statistics, Chapman and Hall, London 1974.
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  • [13] F. C. Drost and C. A. Klaassen, Efficient estimation in semiparametric GARCH models, J. Econometrics 81 (1997), pp. 183-221.
  • [14] G. R. Ducharme and P. Lafaye de Micheaux, Goodness-of-fit tests of normality for the innovation in ARMA models, J. Time Ser. Anal. 25 (2004), pp. 375-395.
  • [15] R. F. Engle, Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation, Econometrica 50 (1982), pp. 987-1007.
  • [16] G. Fiorentini, E. Sentana and G. Calzolari, On the validity of the Jarque-Bera normality test in conditionally heteroskedastic dynamic regression models, Econom. Lett. 83 (2004), pp. 307-312.
  • [17] N. Friedman, Introduction to Ergodic Theory, Princeton, New Jersey, 1970.
  • [18] C. Gouriéroux, ARCH Models and Financial Applications, Springer, New York 1997.
  • [19] R. Ignacco1o, Goodness-of-fit tests for dependent data, Nonparametric Statistics 16 (2004), pp. 19-38.
  • [20] T. Inglot, W. C. M. Kallenberg and T. Ledwina, Power approximations to and power comparison of smooth goodness-of-fit tests, Scand. J. Statist. 21 (1994), pp. 131-145.
  • [21] T. Inglot, W. C. M. Kallenberg and T. Ledwina, Data driven smooth tests for composite hypotheses, Ann. Statist. 25 (1997), pp. 1222-1250.
  • [22] T. Inglot and T. Ledwina, Intermediate approach to comparison of some goodness-of-fit tests, Ann. Inst. Statist. Math. 53 (2001), pp. 810-834.
  • [23] W. C. M. Kallenberg and T. Ledwina, Consistency and Monte Carlo simulation of a data driven version of smooth goodness-of-fit tests, Ann. Statist. 23 (1995), pp. 1594-1608.
  • [24] W. C. M. Kallenberg and T. Ledwina, Data driven tests for composite hypotheses: Comparison of powers, J. Stat. Comput. Simul. 59 (1997a), pp. 101-121.
  • [25] W. C. M. Kallenberg and T. Ledwina, Data driven smooth tests when the hypothesis is composite, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 92 (1997b), pp. 1094-1104.
  • [26] S. Kundu, S. Majumdar and K. Mukherjee, Central limit theorems revisited, Statist. Probab. Lett. 47 (2000), pp. 265-275.
  • [27] T. Ledwina, Data driven version of Neyman's smooth test of fit, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 89 (1994), pp. 1000-1005.
  • [28] S.-W. Lee and B. E. Hansen, Asymptotic theory for the GARCH (1, 1) quasi-maximum likelihood estimator, Econometric Theory 10 (1994), pp. 29-52.
  • [29] W. K. Li and S. Ling, On fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average time series models with conditional heteroskedasticity, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 92 (1997), pp. 1184-1194.
  • [30] W. K. Li, S. Ling and M. McAleer, A survey of recent theoretical results for time series models with GARCH errors, J. Econom. Survey 16 (2002), pp. 245-269.
  • [31] S. Ling and M. McAleer, Asymptotic theory for a vector ARMA-GARCH model, Econometric Theory 19 (2003), pp. 278-308.
  • [32] R. L. Lumsdaine, Consistency and asymptotic normality of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator in IGARCH (1, 1) and covariance stationary GARCH (1, 1) models, Econometrica 64 (1996), pp. 575-596.
  • [33] T. K. Mak, H. Wong and W. K. Li, Estimation of nonlinear time series with conditional heteroscedastic variances by iteratively weighted least squares, Comput. Statist. Data Analysis 24 (1997), pp. 169-178.
  • [34] H. Milbrodt and H. Strasser, On the asymptotic power of the two-sided Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, J. Statist. Plann. Inference 26 (1990), pp. 1-23.
  • [35] A. Milhøj, The moment structure of ARCH processes, Scand. J. Statist. 12 (1985), pp. 281-292.
  • [36] S. Mittnik, M. S. Paolella and S. T. Rachev, Unconditional and conditional distributional models for the Nikkei index, Asia-Pacific Financial Markets 5 (1998), pp. 99-128.
  • [37] D. B. Nelson, Stationarity and persistence in the GARCH (1, 1) model, Econometric Theory 6 (1990), pp. 318-334.
  • [38] J. Neyman, Smooth tests for goodness of fit, Skand. Aktuarietidskr. 20 (1937), pp. 149-199.
  • [39] D. R. Thomas and D. A. Pierce, Neyman's smooth goodness-of-fit test when the hypothesis is composite, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 74 (1979), pp. 441-445.
  • [40] A. A. Weiss, Asymptotic theory for ARCH models: Estimation and testing, Econometric Theory 2 (1986), pp. 107-131.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-8397d757-af26-4b96-8279-36927dd12a05
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